Intensive rocket fire attacks against western Negev population centers and the Ashqelon region after Hamas announces the end of the lull arrangement

Overview

1. At 0600 hours on the morning of December 19 the lull arrangement ended, six months after it began, according to a unilateral announcement made by Hamas and the other Palestinian terrorist organizations. Israel ‘s position was that the lull was unlimited in time.

2. The vicious anti-Israeli propaganda campaign launched by Hamas to accompany the end of the lull falsely represented the Palestinians as "defending themselves,” and stressed their "right” to react to Israeli "aggression.” The campaign, which completely ignored the continuous violations of the lull by the terrorist organizations during the past weeks, is designed to prepare world public opinion for the coming escalation from the Gaza Strip currently being initiated by terrorist organizations .

3. During the final days of the lull arrangement Israel was targeted by barrages of rocket and mortar shell fire. Since December 19, 27 rockets and 24 mortar shells have been launched, several of which landed in Sderot, Ashqelon and the western Negev towns and villages. In addition, sniper fire was directed at farmers working the fields of Kibbutz Nir Oz. The Israeli Air Force responded with a number of air attacks against squads of rocket launchers. (Note: This document is relevant to the afternoon hours of December 21. Even after it was written, rocket and mortar shell fire continued).

4. Most of the rockets in recent days were fired by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad ; Hamas made no attempt to stop them or the other terrorist organizations from attacking. So far, Hamas has contented itself with firing mortar shells . In our assessment, Hamas’s policy of brinksmanship is intended to return to the status quo ante before the lull arrangement, an attempt keep the heat at a certain level and prevent uncontrolled escalation, although the potential for deterioration is an ever-present threat. In public, Hamas continues signaling it would be willing to renew the lull arrangement, but with what it regards as improved conditions. So far, however, it has not tried to involve the Egyptians or any other factor as mediators, or to formulate an alternative to the lull arrangement.

5. The escalation in the south was the subject of the deliberations of the weekly Israeli government meeting. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that a responsible government was "not eager to join battle,” but that Israel would not be deterred from taking the steps necessary to end the attacks. Defense Minister Ehud Barak , expressing his solidarity with the Negev residents, said that the situation in the Gaza Strip was unacceptable and that he had instructed the security establishment to ready themselves for upcoming events (Ynet, December 21).

The situation on the ground as the terrorist
organizations ended the lull arrangement

Armed Hamas Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades operative (Hamas’s PALDF Forum, December 16, 2008).		The Al-Nasser regiment of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades in training (Hamas’s PALDF Forum, December 18, 2008).
Hamas operative practices firing a gun (Hamas’s PALDF Forum, December 20, 2008).

7. The weekend events were the following:

i) December 19 – On the morning of the end of the lull arrangement, three rockets were fired and landed in uninhabited areas of the western Negev . A few hours later farmers working in the fields of Kibbutz Nir Oz were attacked with light arms; a vehicle was damaged. In the evening, more rockets were fired, which also landed in open areas. Seven rockets and six mortar shells were fired during the day. The PIJ and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine claimed responsibility for the attacks.

ii) December 20 – The second day after the lull arrangement ended began with four rockets fired into Israeli territory, which landed on open areas around the Gaza Strip. The IDF attacked a squad of rocket launchers north of the town of Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip. An operative of Fatah’s military-terrorist wing was killed and a number of operatives were wounded (Al-Aqsa TV, December 20). In the early afternoon another barrage of rockets and mortar shells was fired. One rocket landed in the center of Sderot , but no casualties or damages were reported. Rocket and mortar shells fire continued until the evening, with a total of ten rockets and 18 mortar shells . The PIJ claimed responsibility for most of the rocket attacks, as did Fatah’s military-terrorist wing, the PFLP and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine. At the same time, Hamas claimed responsibility for the mortar shell attacks . The IAF attacked another squad of rocket launchers and destroyed their equipment. Apparently, several Fatah military-terrorist operatives were injured (Qudsnet website, Paltoday website, December 20).

iii) December 21 – During the morning three rockets and mortar shells landed in Israeli territory, wounding one civilian. The IDF attacked a rocket launcher near the town of Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip. An hour later, six rockets were launched, two of them falling in the Gaza Strip. Four rockets fell in and around Sderot, one of them a direct hit on a house in the city , causing property damage; one resident was treated for shock. One of the rockets fell near an elementary school . At 10:00 a rocket landed in the industrial zone of Ashqelon . There were no casualties and no damage to property was reported. As of 1300 hours, ten rockets had been fired at Israel .

The PIJ fires rockets (Paltoday website, December 21).

A rocket which landed near an elementary school in Sderot
(Photo, Zeev Trachtman, December 21).

Daily Distribution of Rocket and Mortar Shell Fire, December 2008

Monthly Distribution of Rocket Fire, 2008

Monthly Distribution of Mortar Shell Fire, 2008

Reactions of Hamas and the other terrorist organizations

Hamas

8. On December 18 the Hamas movement unilaterally announced the end of the lull arrangement. It accused Israel ("the Zionist enemy”) of not meeting the terms of the arrangement regarding the opening of the Gaza Strip crossings, "ending aggression” and including the West Bank in the lull ¹ (Palestine-info website, December 18).

9. Hamas spokesmen also placed full responsibility for the end of the lull arrangement on Israel , because, they claimed, Israel had not met its commitments (while completely ignoring rocket and mortar shell fire, which started with the beginning of the arrangement and became continuous after November 4). As to its policy of terrorism and the possibility of renewing the lull arrangement, Hamas remained vague for the most part:

i) Fawzi Barhoum accused Israel of responsibility for the situation, saying that in view of Israel ‘s activities, the "resistance” [i.e., the terrorist organizations] had a "national responsibility” to defend the Palestinian people. He called on the other terrorist organizations to respond to "Israeli aggression” (Ma’an News Agency, December 20). In another interview, he said that the situation was escalating, proof that the "Zionist occupation” planned to overcome the Palestinian people and claim new victims (Filastin al-‘An website, December 20).

ii) Musheir al-Masri , a Hamas member of the Palestinian Legislative Council, also said Israel would bear the responsibility for any future escalation. He claimed that Hamas wanted to continue the lull arrangement, but that it was Israel which had violated its terms (BBC Radio, December 18).

iii) Ismail Radwan noted that Hamas had no knowledge of contacts with Egypt or Israel regarding the renewal or extension of the lull. He said that as far as Hamas was concerned, renewing it was out of the question. He added that Israel would bear the responsibility for the collapse of the lull arrangement and its failure because it had not met its terms ( Al-Bayan Center website, December 20).

iv) ‘Ataf Adwan , senior Hamas activist, said that the lull arrangement could be renewed, but that it would have to be done through a "honest broker,” with national consensus and full Israeli commitment [to adhere to its terms]. He said that if the mediation were not conducted fairly, Hamas would consider replacing the Egyptian mediator with one from Europe (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, December 20).

v) Musa Abu Marzuq , deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau, said that the end of the lull signaled the beginning of a stage of "confrontation” which, in his opinion, was more suited to the "natural relations” between an occupier and the occupied (Al-Quds Al-Arabi, December 19).

vi) Usama Hamdan , Hamas representative in Lebanon , said that Hamas had clear terms for continuing the lull arrangement and that if Israel met them there would be a way to discuss the issue. He accused Israel of not meeting the conditions of the newly-ended lull and even hinted that Hamas would not content itself with firing rockets and mortar shells (since Hamas was "larger and more dynamic…”) but would carry out more serious actions, possibly a reference to suicide bombing attacks (Al-Manar TV, December 19).

The Popular Resistance Committees

10. The so-called "Abu Yussuf,” PRC spokesman, claimed that the organizations had maintained the lull arrangement despite Israel ‘s continual violations. He added that after deliberations conducted by all the organizations, they had agreed to end the lull because Israel had not maintained it and had, he claimed, violated it more than 150 times. He also stated that as long as the siege continued, the lull arrangement would not be renewed (Muqawamah website, December 19).

The PFLP

11. On December 18 the PFLP sent an announcement to the newspapers stating that as far as the organization was concerned, the lull arrangement had collapsed before December 19 and Israel was responsible.

Fatah and the Palestinian Authority

12. Nabil Abu Rudeina , Mahmoud Abbas’ spokesman, said that " the lull is necessary for the Palestinian people. ” He added that Mahmoud Abbas was determined to preserve the welfare of Palestinian civilians and the peace of their daily lives, and demanded that Israel stop its "aggression” and ease the suffering of the Palestinians (Wafa News Agency, December 18)

13. Fahmi al-Za’rir , a Fatah spokesman in Ramallah, said that the lull had not achieved any of the goals expected by the Palestinians, and accused Israel of having violated it. He said that Hamas had tried to create "genuine conditions” for continuing the lull arrangement, which would help the interests of the Palestinian people (Wafa News Agency, December 19). Chairman of the Fatah faction in the Palestinian Legislative Council, Azzam al-Ahmed , claimed that the lull arrangement had ended as a result of "continued Israeli aggression,” and it ended because it had not included the West Bank (Paltoday website, December 19).

Cartoons about the end of the lull arrangement

"Gaza: the lull ends,” and a Palestinian throws his shoe at an Israeli tank (Al-Hayat Al-Jadeeda, December 20, 2008.)		Sneering at Ismail Haniya: in the foreground a placid Ahmed Yassin thinks, "I hope Allah will be satisfied with me.” Behind him an angry Ismail Haniya says, "I hope Iran will be satisfied with me” (Al-Hayat Al-Jadeeda, December 18, 2008).

Egypt

14. A spokesman for the Egyptian foreign ministry expressed sorrow at Hamas’s decision to end the lull but did not directly blame either side. However, with an indirect reference to Hamas, he said that "when one side changes its mind about its original intention, or does not want to extend the lull arrangement, it creates a crisis for all parties, it increases tensions in the entire region and takes us back to square one [of May 2008]…” He said that Egypt would act to renew the lull to the extent that both sides expressed their desire to cooperate with Egypt and negotiate (BBC Radio, December 18).

Hezbollah

15. Sheikh Naim Qassem , Hezbollah’s deputy general secretary, said he supported the Gazans and the end of the lull arrangement, adding that Hezbollah opposed any arrangement or ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinians : "…We in Hezbollah will never give up our cause, Palestine . We do not support a despicable, odious arrangement which is a failure. We support the resistance [i.e., terrorism] which will liberate all the Palestinian lands… We will not enable the existence of a fragile, meaningless ceasefire …” He called on the Arab countries to send aid to the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip (Radio Nur, December 19).

International responses

16. American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expressed hope that the violence between Hamas and Israel would not increase. A spokesman for the department of state and other American spokesmen criticized the rocket fire and said that Hamas was causing damage to the residents of the Gaza Strip. They also noted that Hamas was an obstacle to the signing of a peace agreement (American State Department website, December 20). Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum responded by saying that the Secretary’s statement paved the way for the terrorism and oppression the Palestinians expected from collaboration between the United States, Israel ("the occupation”) and the Palestinian Authority ("the Muqata’ authority”) (Palestine-info website, December 20).

17. The European Union expressed worry over the renewed wave of violence in the Gaza Strip and called for an immediate cessation of rocket fire and Israeli reprisals. The Union noted that there was no military solution to the conflict in the Gaza Strip, and called on both Israel and the Palestinians to extend the lull arrangement through Egyptian mediation, and to open the Gaza Strip crossings to the flow of supplies into the Gaza Strip (French Foreign Ministry website, December 19).

18. The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed worry over the end of the lull arrangement and urged Hamas to reevaluate its decision (Agence France Presse, December 19). Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum responded by saying that every international appeal should be directed to Israel ("the occupation”) and not the "victim” (the Palestinians) (Palestine-info website, December 20).

19. UN spokesmen expressed worry over Hamas’ announcement ending the lull arrangement, and called for it to be extended and for the immediate cessation of rocket fire into Israel (UN website, December 20).

¹ The lull arrangement never included Judea and Samaria .