Spotlight on Global Jihad (February 21-27, 2019)

Main events of the week

• The Kurdish SDF forces are preparing for the decisive attack against what remains of ISIS (many hundreds of operatives) who are holding the village of Al-Baghouz Fawqani. In the past few days, there have been signs of deterioration in the morale of the remaining operatives. It appears that one of the factors delaying the start of the attack is the presence of hundreds of civilians in the village, most of them relatives of ISIS operatives (women and children). These relatives, and ISIS operatives who manage to flee from the village, undergo a brief selection process, at the end of which they are sent to prisons (the men, most of whom are foreign fighters) and to transit camps in the heart of the Kurdish control area (the women and children). In addition, nearly 400 Iraqi-born operatives were handed over to the Iraqi regime. They were sent to a detention facility in Iraq (in addition, 13 ISIS operatives from France were handed over to the Iraqis). Another factor delaying the SDF attack is the presence of a network of tunnels and bunkers in the village of Al-Baghouz which, according to the SDF spokesman, is “a serious military problem.”
• In the Idlib area, high-intensity incidents continued between the Syrian army and the jihadi organizations. These are mainly exchanges of artillery fire, in most cases initiated by the Syrian army. At the same time, Syrian planes attacked targets in the rural area north of Idlib, a rare occurrence in recent months. A website affiliated with the Syrian regime reported that this was preliminary artillery fire in preparation for the “Idlib campaign.” On the other hand, the jihadi organizations continued to attack the Syrian army, although, in the ITIC’s assessment, the intensity is lower than that of the Syrian army.
• In spite of President Trump’s statement that the United States will pull out its 2,000 troops from Syria, according to US media reports from this week, 400 military personnel will remain in Syria and will operate in three locations: northeastern Syria (the SDF control zone), the Al-Tanf base (near the Syria-Iraq-Jordan tri-border area) and the Manbij area (which Turkey strives to include in its safe zone). However, the United States still faces unresolved political problems, primarily an arrangement with Turkey over the safe zone (which has encountered difficulty due to the lack of agreement about the Kurds). Against this backdrop, talks are taking place between senior US and Turkish officials in order to try to promote solutions to these problems.

US involvement in Syria

The US intends to leave 400 military personnel in Syria

According to President Trump’s statement (President Trump’s Twitter account, December 19, 2018) that the United States would pull back its troops from Syria following the victory over ISIS, initially, 2,000 US military personnel were expected to leave Syria. However, US officials recently said that 400 military personnel would remain in Syria for some time, and would operate in three locations: northeastern Syria (the Kurdish control area), the city of Manbij (where they will conduct joint patrols with their Turkish counterparts) and at the Al-Tanf base (in order to halt the spread of Iranian influence) (The Wall Street Journal, February 23, 2019, and additional US media outlets).

• Against the background of firm Turkish opposition, no agreement has yet been reached with Turkey regarding the nature of the US activity in areas controlled by the Kurds. As a result, talks are being held between senior US military officials and senior Turkish officials, with the participation of the US Secretary of Defense and the Turkish Minister of Defense (Reuters, February 23, 2019). Another problem that is emerging is that of future cooperation in Syria between the Americans and their European allies who are partners in the campaign against ISIS. The Americans hope that the military personnel remaining in Syria, on the order of 800-1,500 soldiers, will be part of the force of the European allies of the US (Reuters, February 22, 2019). However, according to a report in The Washington Post (February 20, 2019), the allies of the United States (apparently France and Britain) will not leave their forces in Syria if the United States pulls back its forces. In any event, French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed the US decision to leave the military personnel in Syria and noted that France would continue to operate within the framework of the Coalition forces (Reuters, February 25, 2019).
• Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on the (initial) report that after the US pullback from Syria, the US intended to leave a force of around 200 soldiers in Syria. According to him, Moscow is following closely and analyzing Washington’s position on the potential pullback of US forces from Syria, and believes that the situation is unclear for the time being (TASS News Agency, February 22, 2019).

The Idlib region

High-intensity incidents continue between the Syrian army and the jihadi organizations

• This week as well, high-intensity incidents continued in the Idlib region between the Syrian army and the jihadi rebel organizations. The Syrian army fired at command posts of the Battalions of Glory 27 km northwest of Hama. Several command posts and positions were destroyed. A website affiliated with the Syrian army reported that the fire was part of the commands given to Syrian army sector commanders to use preliminary artillery fire in the region in advance of the Idlib campaign long anticipated by all the Syrians (Butulat Al-Jaysh Al-Suri, February 21, 2019). The Syrian News Agency reported that on February 22, 2019, the Syrian army had destroyed rocket launchers belonging to the rebel organizations south of Idlib (SANA, February 24, 2019). In addition, the Syrian army fired at routes used by the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham north of Hama. Many operatives were either wounded or killed (SANA, February 23, 2019).
• Syrian fighter jets carried out airstrikes against targets in the rural area south of Idlib (a rare occurrence in recent months). At the same time, the Syrian army fired artillery at the areas attacked from the air. Artillery was also fired (February 24, 2019) west of Jisr Al-Shughur, the rural area north of Hama, the Al-Ghab Plain, and the city of Khan Shaykhun (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights; Khotwa, February 24, 2019).

    
Right: Syrian army soldier near a tank, preparing for the campaign over Idlib (Butulat Al-Jaysh Al-Suri, February 21, 2019). Left: Syrian army gun attacking rebel organization targets in the rural area north of Hama (SANA, February 24, 2019)

• On its part, the “Awaken the Believers” operations room (comprised predominantly of the Guardians of Religion Organization affiliated with Al-Qaeda) announced that it had attacked targets of the Syrian army (Telegram, February 20, 21, 2019). On February 24, 2019, rebel organization squads attempted to infiltrate into Syrian army positions in the rural area north of Hama. The Syrian army fired at them and killed many operatives (SANA, February 14, 2019). On February 25, 2019, the antitank unit of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham fired an antitank missile at a Syrian army force southeast of Idlib (Ibaa, February 25, 2019). On February 25 and 26, 2019, the “Awaken the Believers” operations room announced that its operatives had fired mortar shells at Syrian army positions east of Idlib. According to the announcement, on February 26, 2019, a total of 14 Syrian soldiers were either killed or wounded (Telegram, February 26, 2019).

Turkish army reinforcements in the rural area south of Idlib

• According to a report by a Syrian news website affiliated with the rebel organizations, on the evening of February 25, 2019, Turkish forces including APCs and tanks entered into Syria and advanced towards the observation posts in the rural area south of Idlib. On February 26, 2019, the Idlib Information Center reported the Turkish army’s intention to set up six new observation posts in the rural area southeast of Idlib (Al-Durar Al-Shamiya, February 26, 2019).

Eastern Syria

Preparation for a decisive battle in Al-Baghouz Fawqani (updated to February 27, 2019)

The SDF forces continue to prepare for the decisive attack against the ISIS operatives holding the village of Al-Baghouz Fawqani. About a thousand ISIS operatives remained in the village, with hundreds of civilians, mostly ISIS families (women and children). The SDF forces, supported by the Americans, take in the ISIS operatives and civilians fleeing from the village. They undergo a selection process and brief questioning and are sent to prisons (ISIS operatives) and transit camps (women and children) in the heart of the Kurdish control area. In addition, several hundred Iraqi-born ISIS operatives were handed over to the Iraqi regime.

• Following is an overview regarding the ISIS “pocket” in the village of Al-Baghouz Fawqani, based on the ITIC’s information, including interviews with a senior SDF officer and Kurdish government officials (Kurdistan 24, February 23, 2019):
  • ISIS forces: It is estimated that the number of ISIS operatives surrounded in Al-Baghouz Fawqani is about one thousand. Most of them are foreign fighters: Russians, Europeans, Americans, Turks, many Iraqis, Senegalese and Asians.
  • The situation of the civilians: About 5,000 civilians have managed to flee from the “pocket” thanks to a corridor opened for them by the SDF forces. Most of the civilians fled the village in the last few days.^[1] However, there are still civilians trapped in the “pocket,” mostly family members of ISIS operatives (women and children). Therefore, the operatives provide them with food and water, in spite of the shortage due to the siege imposed by the SDF. This represents mass surrender which is unprecedented, an indication of the low morale in the remaining “pocket.”
  • Handling operatives and civilians who managed to flee: The men who managed to flee undergo preliminary interrogation (with US soldiers involved), mainly in order to ascertain whether they are foreign fighters. Then, they are sent to prisons. The women are questioned by the SDF and then sent to transit camps behind the lines. Apparently, the main camp to which women are sent is the Al-Hol Camp in the heart of the Kurdish control area (about 40 km southeast of Al-Hasakah).
  • Hostages held by ISIS: ISIS is holding hostages from the village of Kobaneh (near the Turkish border) and from the city of Al-Raqqah (former ISIS “capital” in Syria). In addition, ISIS is holding SDF prisoners, Kurdish government officials, foreign media people, and Yazidis who were abducted. Their whereabouts are unknown. The SDF fighters hope to release hostages who were left alive, based on intelligence to be received. According to British media reports, in the village of Al-Baghouz Fawqani, an elite SAS unit found the severed heads of 50 Yazidi women brutally murdered by ISIS (Mail Online, February 23, 2019).
  • The possibility of escaping to Iraq: The SDF is unclear on whether ISIS operatives and their commanders managed to escape from Al-Baghouz. It is possible to arrive in Iraq using tunnels dug in the village including cross-border tunnels. However, the ISIS operatives are faced with difficulties crossing the border as the Iraqi army monitors it from the Iraqi side and the SDF from the Syrian side. In addition, it appears that ISIS operatives are trying to cross the Euphrates by boat and escape westward, towards the Palmyra region. However, in the ITIC’s assessment, escapes to the west are rare due to the difficulties involved (the British Air Force reported that a fighter jet had fired a missile at a boat of ISIS operatives who were trying to cross the Euphrates).

    
Selection and evacuation of ISIS family members in Al-Baghouz Fawqani (Al-Aan Channel, February 24, 2019)

• According to Kurdish spokesmen, the presence of civilians in the village of Al-Baghouz Fawqani currently delays the advance of the SDF forces. Another element delaying the beginning of the decisive battle is the presence of tunnels and underground bunkers in the village, including such that have not been discovered yet. Their presence, according to Mustafa Bali, the head of the SDF Press Center, “creates a military problem for us” (Reuters, February 24, 2019).

     
Right: Hundreds of civilians, mostly ISIS family members, transported to the Al-Hol displaced persons camp in the heart of the Kurdish control area (Kurdistan 24, February 23, 2019). Left: Yazidi children released from ISIS’s “pocket” in Al-Baghouz Fawqani (Rudaw, February 23, 2019)

Handing over Iraqi-born ISIS operatives to the Iraqi regime

• On February 22-24, 2019, a total of 382 Iraqi-born ISIS operatives were handed over to the Iraqi regime. The Iraqi security forces transferred the operatives to a detention facility (Iraqi News Agency, February 24, 2019). It was reported that among the ISIS operatives handed over to the Iraqi army, there were 13 Frenchmen (Iraqi News Agency, February 25, 2019). In all, the SDF forces had captured over 500 Iraqi-born ISIS operatives who had been in Syria (Iraqi News Agency, February 25, 2019).
• Iraqi President Barham Saleh said at a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris that 13 French ISIS operatives, who had been handed over to Iraq by the SDF forces, would be tried in accordance with Iraqi law and might be executed (Baghdad Post, February 25, 2019).

Senior ISIS operative killed

• On February 24, 2019, a senior ISIS operative, Ahmad al-Obeidi, codenamed Abu Dajaneh al-Zirr, was shot and killed. He was killed while trying to escape from the “pocket” held by ISIS in Al-Baghouz Fawqani. Apparently, Arab fighters in the SDF forces killed him in revenge for having been involved in planning the massacre in Al-Shueitat. According to reports, he was the most wanted operative by the tribes of the region.^[2] Abu Dajaneh al-Zirr was a media figure and then a commander in the Free Syrian Army. He later maintained contact with the Al-Nusra Front, and subsequently pledged allegiance to ISIS (DeirEzzoreNow Twitter account, February 24, 2019).
• The Al-Muhajirin Media Foundation, affiliated with ISIS, released a death notice, referring to him as a “knight, first in battle, hero, courageous and noble.” The notice stated in the notice that he was killed in an International Coalition attack in the Al-Baghouz area (Rosanna@RosannaMrtnz Twitter account, February 25, 2019).

    
Right: Abu Dajjaneh al-Zirr (Deir ez-Zor 24, February 24, 2019). Left: Notice of the Al-Muhajirin Media Foundation on the death of ISIS’s senior operative Abu Dajaneh al-Zirr (Rosanna@RosannaMrtnz Twitter account, February 25, 2019)

Difficulties in the functioning of ISIS’s media system in the area of Al-Baghouz Fawqani

Based on the monitoring of ISIS-affiliated media, the organization is apparently encountering difficulties in transferring media materials from the battle zone in the village of Al-Baghouz Fawqani. In the ITIC’s assessment, this is due to the military pressure exerted on the ISIS operatives in the village, forcing them to hide and struggle to survive. An examination of ISIS’s media indicates that, in contrast to the absence of reports from Al-Baghouz Fawqani, reports about attacks carried out by ISIS in other areas controlled by the SDF continue (see below). In addition, routine reports by ISIS’s provinces in Iraq, Yemen, West Africa and elsewhere continue.

• An exception to ISIS’s media silence in the battle zone in Al-Baghouz Fawqani was a video distributed by an ISIS-affiliated group with the aim of strengthening the morale of those who support fighting “to the end.” The video, which was taken in Al-Baghouz Fawqani, shows an ISIS cleric and poet praising unity and jihad. The cleric states that “Al-Baghouz has become the symbol of those who show patience,” i.e., a call on the operatives and their supporters not to surrender and to continue the long-term campaign (Rosanna@RosannaMrtnz Twitter account, February 26, 2019).

Clashes continue between ISIS and the Syrian army in the desert area east of Palmyra

• According to a report by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), on February 23, 2019, ISIS ambushes were set up northeast of Palmyra (in the area between Palmyra and Al-Sukhnah). Six Syrian army soldiers were killed, including two officers. According to the SOHR, there are reports about three soldiers having been taken prisoner by ISIS (SOHR, February 24, 2019).

Northeastern Syria

ISIS’s guerrilla activities continue in the vicinity of the city of Al-Mayadeen in the Euphrates Valley

• This week as well, ISIS’s guerrilla and terror activities continued in the vicinity of the city of Al-Mayadeen in the Euphrates Valley (southeast of Deir ez-Zor):
  • According to a report by the SOHR, a car bomb exploded near a convoy of oil refinery employees in the vicinity of the village of Al-Shahil (about 9 km north of Al-Mayadeen, near the place where an SDF vehicle was attacked last week). The attack killed at least 10 oil refinery employees and security guards (SOHR, February 21, 2019).
  • ISIS announced that on February 21, 2019, its operatives had detonated a car bomb as SDF vehicles passed by it in the village of Al-Shahil. According to ISIS, 15 SDF fighters were killed. ISIS’s announcement ends with the threat that the attacks by the “soldiers of the Caliphate” will not cease and that the campaign will still be difficult until “the armies of the cross” are defeated (Shabakat Shumukh, February 21, 2019).

Attacks carried out by ISIS squads in other areas of activity of the SDF

• ISIS claimed responsibility for detonating an IED against a vehicle carrying SDF personnel in central Al-Raqqah (which became the focus of ISIS guerrilla attacks). Four SDF fighters were killed or wounded in the attack, and the vehicle was damaged (Shabakat Shumukh, February 22, 2019).
• ISIS claimed responsibility for detonating an IED against an SDF vehicle south of Al-Shadadi, in the heart of the Kurdish control area. All the passengers were reportedly killed or wounded (Telegram, February 25, 2019).

Main developments in Iraq

ISIS’s terrorist and guerrilla activity

• Following are the highlights of ISIS’s activity in the past week (mainly according to ISIS’s reports):
  • Al-Anbar Province: On February 19, 2019, twelve people who were picking mushrooms were abducted. Two days later, the Iraqi security forces found the bodies of six of them (Erem News, February 21, 2019). Five of those abducted were released (Al-Sumaria Knows, February 23, 2019)
  • Al-Anbar Province: ISIS set up an ambush for members of the (Tribal) Mobilization near the city of Haditha. Five members of the (Tribal) Mobilization were killed in the exchange of fire (Shabakat Shumukh, February 22, 2019).
  • Nineveh Province: An IED was detonated against the vehicle of a member of the Iraqi security forces in central Mosul. He was wounded and his vehicle was destroyed (Shabakat Shumukh, February 23, 2019).
  • Salah al-Din Province: The commander of the provincial police announced that on February 25, 2019, the Iraqi security forces had foiled an attack by “terrorist operatives” (implicitly ISIS) against the Salah al-Din 1 oil refinery (some 40 km north of Tikrit). According to the report, more than 15 “terrorist operatives,” including suicide bombers, attacked the refinery complex for three hours but were unable to enter it. Three “terrorist operatives” were reportedly killed and another operative was captured. The remaining operatives fled to the Makhoul Mountains, north of the refinery compound (Iraqi News Agency, February 25, 2019)

Counterterrorist activities by the Iraqi security forces

• Following are the main counterterrorist activities carried out by the Iraqi security forces:
  • Al-Anbar Province: A Tribal Mobilization force carried out a series of attacks against ISIS in the desert of the Al-Anbar Province. Five ISIS operatives were killed in the attacks, their weapons were seized and their vehicles set on fire. The ISIS operatives who were attacked have reportedly threatened the lives of people who were picking mushrooms (Sawt al-Iraq, February 21, 2019).
  • Diyala Province: A Popular Mobilization force destroyed ISIS hiding places about 24 km northeast of Baqubah. The Iraqi army and the Popular Mobilization, with Iraqi air support, attacked ISIS operatives for several days (al-hashed.net, February 23, 2019).
  • Al-Anbar Province: An Iraqi intelligence force found a cache of 265 IEDs some 45 km west of Baghdad. The force discovered three tunnels that served as hiding places for ISIS operatives. Combat engineering teams blew up the IEDs and the tunnels (Iraqi News Agency, February 24, 2019).
  • Nineveh Province: An Iraqi intelligence force detained a senior ISIS operative about 100 km northwest of Mosul (near the Iraq-Syria border). The senior operative, who was considered extremely dangerous, had previously fled to Syria during an operation by the Iraqi security forces (Iraqi News Agency, February 24, 2019).

The Sinai Peninsula and Egypt

Attack against an Egyptian army checkpoint in Rafah

• In the evening of February 25, 2019, operatives of ISIS’s Sinai Province attacked an Egyptian army checkpoint in the northern part of the city of Rafah. In response, the Egyptian army fired artillery at abandoned houses in Rafah. No casualties were reported (Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, February 25, 2019).

^[1] According to a report by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (February 26, 2019), in recent days, about 3,600 family members of ISIS operatives and civilians, and about 200 ISIS operatives fled Al-Baghouz Fawqani. ↑
^[2] Al-Shueitat: A Sunni Arab tribe residing in the Deir ez-Zor area, numbering 70,000-90,000 people. In August 2014, ISIS operatives massacred 700 of the tribespeople. Following this massacre, the tribe has been fighting against ISIS (Wikipedia). ↑

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