Spotlight on Global Jihad (August 8-14, 2019)

Main events of the week

• Following the collapse of the ceasefire in the Idlib region, the Syrian army launched a series of ground attacks in several zones. The main effort was in the southwest and southeast of the Idlib enclave. In the ITIC’s assessment, this reflects a plan aimed at taking over the city of Khan Shaykhun (referred to by the Syrian media as the “gateway to Idlib”) and cutting off the control area of the rebel organizations in the southern part of the Idlib region. At a later stage, after taking control of the southern Idlib region, the Syrian army apparently intends to use the area as a launching pad for advancing northward towards Idlib. For the first time since the campaign for taking over the Idlib region began some three and a half months ago, the Syrian army recorded a number of successes, although its takeover of the southern Idlib region and the entire region is still a long way off.
• In the Euphrates Valley in eastern Syria, ISIS continues its increased activity in the area of Al-Raqqah and Deir ez-Zor–Al-Mayadeen. The modus operandi that ISIS has recently made extensive use of is attacks against civilians affiliated with the local Kurdish administration (concurrently with routine attacks against SDF forces). This is aimed at toppling the systems of the local Kurdish civil administration and creating chaos that will compromise the relatively stable security situation and prepare the ground for ISIS’s takeover of the areas that it has lost.
• In the Iraqi arena, ISIS’s terrorist and guerrilla activity in the various provinces continues, as does the widespread operation by the Iraqi security forces to mop up northern and western Iraq. Increased security activity is being undertaken by the Shiite militias of the Popular Mobilization to secure the main road leading to the Al-Qaim border crossing (the Iraqi side of the Albukamal crossing). In the ITIC’s assessment, this security activity is being carried out in the light of the preparations for opening the border crossing between Iraq and Syria, which is an essential component of the ground supply route that Iran is striving to establish from its territory to the Mediterranean.
• On August 3-11, 2019, ISIS carried out its Raids of Attrition Campaign, which is intended to encourage ISIS’s supporters and to reinforce the message that ISIS is enhancing its presence and activity around the globe. A total of around 60 attacks were carried out as part of the campaign, most of them (around 70%) in Syria and Iraq. The campaign also included isolated attacks in the Sinai Peninsula, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Yemen and Mozambique. At the same time, during the past week, ISIS’s “routine” attacks continued in the various provinces, with Afghanistan continuing to stand out in terms of the volume of activity. ISIS also carried out attacks in the Sinai Peninsula, Nigeria, Mozambique, and Yemen.

The Idlib area

Overview

Following the collapse of the ceasefire in the Idlib region (August 5, 2019), the Syrian army launched a series of ground attacks in several fighting zones. The main effort focused on the southwest of the Idlib region, in the area northwest of Hama (this area saw most of the Syrian attacks since the beginning of the campaign, in early May 2019). In addition, the Syrian army attacked rebel organizations’ control areas in the southeastern Idlib region (the village of Sukayk north of Hama) and the northwestern part of the Idlib region (the Kabanah area, southwest of Jisr al-Shughur). The Syrian army recorded a series of successes in its offensive moves in the southern Idlib region, which are first of their kind since the start of the campaign before nearly three and a half months. However, it is evident that the rebels are still resolute in their resistance, and the Syrian army’s takeover of the southern Idlib region and the entire region still seems a long way off.

• What is the plan behind the Syrian offensive? The ITIC believes that the Syrian moves reflect a plan whose objective is to ultimately cut off the southern Idlib region by the Syrian army’s advance from the west and east towards Khan Shaykhun and the takeover of this city (which is one of the largest in the rebels’ control area). Afterwards, in the ITIC’s assessment, the Syrian army is planning to take control of the southern Idlib region to undermine the rebel organizations’ control of the entire region and create a base for the Syrian army’s advance northward, towards Idlib.

The offensive moves in the southwestern Idlib region

• In the southwestern Idlib region, the Syrian army managed to take over a strip extending from Al-Arba’een to Hobait within a few days (August 7-10, 2019). Following are the details:
• Al-Arba’een and Zaka (28 km northwest of Hama). Attacks against these villages started on August 7, 2019. It was reported that the Syrian army had taken over these villages relatively quickly (SANA, August 10, 2019). Following their takeover, Russian fighter jets carried out airstrikes against Kafrzeita northeast of Al-Arba’een (Ibaa, August 11, 2019). This is possibly a preparatory strike in advance of a Syrian army ground move to attack the village.
• Sakhr, Al-Jasiyat, and Tal Sakhr (36 km northwest of Hama, northwest of Al-Arba’een). The two villages and the hill were taken over by the Syrian army from the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham (Muraselon, August 10, 2019).
•  Al-Hobait: On the night of August 10, 2019, the Syrian army (possibly the Tiger forces under the command of Suheil Hassan) attacked operatives of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham in Hobait (a city which prior to the civil war had over 10,000 inhabitants). On August 11, 2019, at dawn, the city was taken over, apparently without a significant resistance on the part of the rebel organizations. The attack was preceded by Syrian army artillery softening-up and Russian and Syrian airstrikes. Dozens of operatives of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham were reportedly killed or wounded in the attacks (Muraselon, August 11, 2019).

    
Right: Hobait, which was taken over by the Syrian army (Google Maps). Left: Ruined buildings in Hobait (from a video originally released by the Tiger forces under the command of Col. Suheil Hassan, Muraselon, August 11, 2019)

The ITIC believes that to date, the relatively easy takeover of Hobait is the culmination of the Syrian army’s achievements in the campaign to take over the Idlib region. According to reports of the official Syrian media, the takeover of Hobait was a “strategic move,” due to its proximity to Khan Shaykhun (eight kilometers), one of the major cities in the rebels’ control area (before the civil war, the city had a population of about 53,000). Al-Sham FM, a radio and television station affiliated with the Syrian regime, even described Hobait as the “gateway to Idlib” (Muraselon, August 11, 2019; Sputnik, citing Al-Watan and Al-Sham FM, August 11, 2019). Khan Shaykhun, which is now in the crosshairs of the Syrian army, lies on the main highway from Hama to Idlib and Aleppo (M-5). After taking over this city, the Syrian army may use it as a launching pad for the northern part of the Idlib region.

The Syrian army’s offensive in the southeastern Idlib region (the village of Sukayk)

• On August 10, 2019, the Syrian army attacked the village of Sukayk and Tal Sukayk nearby (28 km north of Hama). This area represents a new arena of the Syrian army as so far, the army’s attacks focused on the southwestern part of the Idlib region. Fierce battles took place between the attacking force and the rebel organizations (the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and the jihadi Battalions of Glory) (SANA, August 11, 2019). The Syrian army managed to take over Tal Sukayk, was repelled by the rebel organizations, and then retook Tal Sukayk with Special Forces supported by armored vehicles (Enab Baladi; Muraselon, August 10, 2019). During the battles, a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb among militiamen supporting the Syrian army (Ibaa, August 10, 11, 2019).

• On August 13, 2019, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham detonated a car bomb on the outskirts of the village of Sukayk. Then the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and other organizations launched a counterattack against Syrian army positions in Sukayk and the adjacent Tal Sukayk. Clashes took place between the sides. The Syrian army was supported by airstrikes and artillery fire (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 13, 2019). The rebel counterattack failed. Official Syrian sources reported that the “terrorist operatives” had sustained heavy casualties. They also released a video and photos showing destroyed vehicles (SANA, August 13, 2019).

    
Right: The village of Sukayk taken over by the Syrian army. Left: Rebel vehicle destroyed by the Syrian army at the foot of Tal Sukayk (SANA, August 13, 2019)

• Following the failure of the rebel counterattack in Sukayk, the Syrian army began to advance towards Tarei and the hill overlooking it (about 2.5 km west of Sukayk). This village is the “gateway” to Al-Tamanah, about 8 km east of Khan Shaykhun. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham reported that it had repelled the attack against Tarei and that the Syrian army had sustained many fatalities (Ibaa; Enab Baladi, August 13, 2019). On August 13, 2019, Russian and Syrian fighter jets carried out airstrikes against Al-Tamanah, in preparation for the takeover of Khan Shaykhun (Enab Baladi, August 13, 2019).

The offensive move in the northwestern part of the Idlib region (Kabanah area)

• The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham announced that on August 10, 2019, the rebel organizations had halted two attempts of the Syrian army to take over Kabanah (13 km southwest of Jisr al-Shughur). Preparations to take over the village started with artillery fire and airstrikes. The Syrian army fired guns and launched rockets at Kabanah, and Syrian helicopters dropped barrel bombs (Khotwa, August 11, 2019). When advancing towards Kabanah, the Syrian army used tanks and heavy machinery (Ibaa, August 10, 2019). It was reported that battles on the roads leading to the village of Kabanah had continued for several days in a row (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 12, 2019).
• The Kabanah area, which has been targeted in previous Syrian army attacks, was the only area where the rebel organizations managed to halt the Syrian army’s recent advance attempts. The ITIC believes that the Syrian army’s attacks against Kabanah were carried out as a secondary effort and that the main targets of the Syrian attacks are in the southern Idlib region.

Artillery fire and airstrike of the Russian airbase in Hmeymim

• Russian media reported that on August 8, 2019, the rebel organizations fired four rockets at the Russian airbase in Hmeymim. The rockets were launched from the Kabanah area. Two Syrian civilians were killed and four others were wounded (Sputnik International, August 11, 2019). On August 11, 2019, the Russian air defense systems in Hmeymim intercepted six UAVs launched by the rebel organizations (“terrorists”). There were no casualties or damage (TASS, August 11, 2019).

Interim summary of the losses since the beginning of the Syrian ground attack

• Since the beginning of the Syrian army’s ground attack in early May 2019, at least 3,257 people have been killed in the Idlib region. Fatalities included 1,244 rebel organization operatives, including 787 operatives of the jihadi organizations (bearing the brunt of the fighting). Fatalities also included 1,118 soldiers and operatives of the Syrian army and the forces supporting it, and 895 civilians (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 13, 2019).

Northeastern Syria

Attacks inside the Kurdish control area continue

• This week, ISIS operatives continued their guerrilla warfare and terrorist attacks in the Kurdish control area in northeastern Syria. Highlights of the terrorist attacks this week:
  • August 8, 2019: An IED was activated against SDF forces about 80 km south of Al-Hasakah. Four SDF fighters were killed and two others wounded (Telegram, August 8, 2019).
  • August 9, 2019: An SDF intelligence operative was killed when his vehicle was targeted by machine gun fire about 50 km south of Al-Hasakah (Telegram, August 11, 2019).
  • August 10, 2019: An IED was activated against an SDF vehicle on the road from Al-Hasakah to Deir ez-Zor. All the passengers were either killed or wounded (Telegram, August 10, 2019).

The Euphrates Valley

The area of Al-Raqqah (ISIS’s former “capital” in Syria)

Recently, ISIS has increased its activity against officials of the local Kurdish government in the Al-Raqqah area. These officials are associated with the local communities and constitute a clearly civilian target. In the ITIC’s assessment, ISIS is striving to topple the local Kurdish civilian administration concurrently with its continued activity against the SDF forces. This is aimed at creating chaos that will compromise the relatively stable security situation in the Kurdish control area and prepare the ground for ISIS’s takeover of the areas that it has lost.

• Following are the highlights of ISIS’s activity in and around the city of Al-Raqqah over the past week:
  • August 10, 2019: Blowing up the home of SDF fighters in Al-Raqqah with an IED. The house sustained damage (Telegram, August 11, 2019).
  • August 10, 2019: Setting fire to the vehicle of the head of a commune^[1] in Al-Raqqah (Telegram, August 11, 2019).
  • August 10, 2019: Breaking into the homes of two commune leaders 24 km southwest of Al-Raqqah, shooting and killing them (Telegram, August 10, 2019).
  • August 12, 2019: Stabbing an SDF intelligence agent east of the city of Tabqa, some 40 km west of Al-Raqqah (Telegram, August 12, 2019).

The area of Deir al-Zor and Al-Mayadeen

ISIS’s increased activity against officials of the local Kurdish government and against the buildings in which they operate (symbols of the Kurdish government) is also evident in the area of Deir al-Zor and Al-Mayadeen.

• Following are the highlights of ISIS’s activity in the area of Deir al-Zor and Al-Mayadeen:
  • August 8, 2019: Activating an IED against an SDF vehicle on the main road in the village of Diban, southeast of Deir ez-Zor (five kilometers east of Al-Mayadeen). Two SDF fighters were killed and three others were wounded (Telegram, August 8, 2019).
  • August 8, 2019: Firing machine guns at a vehicle carrying local council members five kilometers east of Al-Mayadeen. Four local Council members were killed and two others were wounded (Telegram, August 8, 2019).
  • August 10, 2019: Detonating a motorcycle bomb parked on the road against a truck carrying SDF fighters in the town of Al-Basira, 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. Twenty SDF fighters were killed or wounded (Telegram, August 10, 2019).
  • August 10, 2019: Activating an IED against an SDF vehicle in the village of Hariza, around 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. Three SDF fighters were wounded (Telegram, August 12, 2019).
  • August 11, 2019: Activating IEDs against an SDF local council building 23 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. The building was completely demolished (Telegram, August 11, 2019).
  • August 11, 2019: Launching an RPG at the quarters of SDF fighters in the village of Diban, about five kilometers east of Al-Mayadeen. A few SDF fighters were wounded (Telegram, August 12, 2019).
  • August 13, 2019: Activating an IED against an SDF vehicle in the village of Al-Hawaij, four kilometers northeast of Al-Mayadeen. All the passengers were killed (Telegram, August 13, 2019).

The area of Albukamal

• August 10, 2019: Firing machine guns at an SDF checkpoint in the village of Sousa, seven kilometers northeast of Albukamal. One SDF fighter was killed and another was wounded (Telegram, August 11, 2019).

Main developments in Iraq

ISIS’s terrorist and guerrilla activity

• Following are ISIS’s main terrorist and guerrilla operations in the various provinces over the past week (according to ISIS’s claims of responsibility):
  • Diyala Province: Sniper fire at Tribal Mobilization fighters about 30 km northeast of Baqubah. Three fighters were killed or wounded (Telegram, August 8, 2019).
  • Diyala Province: Mortar shells and sniper fire at a Federal Police checkpoint some 80 km northeast of Baqubah. Two policemen were wounded (Telegram, August 11, 2019).
  • Diyala Province: Detonation of an IED against an Iraqi army vehicle on the road leading to an army camp some 70 km northeast of Baqubah. One soldier was killed and another was wounded (Telegram, August 11, 2019).
  • Kirkuk Province: Detonation of an IED against an Iraqi Federal Police vehicle in Daqouq, some 30 km south of Kirkuk. The passengers were wounded (Telegram, August 12, 2019).

Counterterrorist activities by the Iraqi security forces

The security operation to mop up northern and western Iraq continues

• The Iraqi security forces continued the third phase of the widespread security operation to mop up northern and western Iraq from the presence of ISIS operatives (Operation Will to Victory). This week, the activity of the forces was concentrated in the areas of Baqubah and Khanaqin. According to reports, four ISIS operatives (“terrorist operatives”) were killed and 12 tunnels and 24 hiding places were destroyed. In addition, IEDs and five containers of explosives were found (Al-Sumaria, August 9, 2019).

Additional counterterrorism activity

• Following are details of additional counterterrorism actions carried out by the Iraqi security forces:
  • Kirkuk Province: Iraqi Federal Police intelligence teams detained three wanted ISIS operatives operating in the Al-Hawija district, some 55 km west of Kirkuk (Al-Sumaria, August 10, 2019).
  • Al-Anbar Province: Iraqi Special Forces operating on the outskirts of the Al-Anbar Province killed operatives of an ISIS squad as they tried to infiltrate across the border from Syria into Iraq (Iraqi News Agency, August 10, 2019).
  • Al-Anbar Province: Iraqi Military Intelligence detained two wanted “terrorist operatives” (implicitly ISIS operatives) in the Al-Karmah district, some 30 km northwest of Baghdad. The operatives took part in several attacks carried out against the Iraqi security forces (Iraqi News Agency, July 11, 2019).

Security activity on the road leading to the Al-Qaim border crossing

• In view of the preparations for the opening of the Al-Qaim-Albukamal border crossing (between Iraq and Syria), the Popular Mobilization (Shiite militias, some of which are supported by Iran) announced that its forces had carried out activities to secure the section of the road leading to Al-Qaim against attacks by ISIS operatives.
• A senior official in the Popular Mobilization announced (August 10, 2019) that the Popular Mobilization had recently managed to secure the section of the road connecting Al-Qaim and Akashat (which is considered “an important and strategic highway”), which had been blocked up to now due to ISIS attacks. He added that the secured section of the road extends as far as Rutba, in the western part of the Al-Anbar Province. According to him, the length of the secured section is 75 km and it is “absolutely safe for moving vehicles” (al-hashed.net, August 10, 2019).

The Sinai Peninsula and Egypt

• This week as well, ISIS continued to carry out attacks in the Sinai Peninsula: Following are the main operations:
  • August 8, 2019: Heavy weapons were fired at an Egyptian army vehicle east of Al-Arish. The passengers were killed and wounded (Telegram, August 8, 2019).
  • August 9, 2019: An IED was activated against an Egyptian army foot patrol on the international highway between Quneitra and Al-Arish. Several soldiers were killed or wounded (Telegram, August 11, 2019).
  • August 10, 2019: ISIS operatives fired at an Egyptian checkpoint in Al-Arish. A police officer was wounded (Akhbar Shahed Sinaa Facebook page, August 10, 2019).
  • August 11, 2019: ISIS operatives fired at Liwa (General) Hussam Tawfiq, commander of the Northern Sinai District Security Directorate while he was visiting one of the checkpoints in Al-Arish. The officer was wounded (Akhbar Sinaa Facebook page, August 11, 2019).
  • August 12, 2019: An IED exploded near an Egyptian army foot patrol on the highway between Quneitra and Al-Arish (Shahed Sinaa, August 12, 2019).

ISIS’s activity around the globe

Afghanistan

Nangarhar Province

• ISIS operatives detonated an IED against the vehicle of a militia supporting the Afghan army in the Anzari region of the Nangarhar Province. Two passengers were killed (Telegram, August 11, 2019).

Kunar Province

• ISIS operatives halted an attack by Taliban operatives in the Kunar Province, near the border with Pakistan. The two sides exchanged fire. Two Taliban operatives were killed and another was wounded (Telegram, August 11, 2019).
• ISIS operatives took over several Taliban positions in the Kunar Province. Two Taliban operatives were killed and others were wounded (Telegram, August 11, 2019).

Laghman Province

• ISIS operatives activated an IED against the Afghan Criminal Security Administration in the city of Mihtarlam (the capital of Laghman Province, east of Kabul). The director and one of his escorts were wounded. Two policemen were killed (Telegram, August 11, 2019). Up to now, ISIS’s activity has been concentrated on the provinces of Nangarhar and Kunar, and it is possible that from there it is beginning to spill over into the Laghman Province, east of Kabul.

Nigeria

• On August 10, 2019, ISIS operatives attacked Nigerian army positions in the town of Gubio, some 80 km northwest of Maiduguri (the capital of Borno State, in northeastern Nigeria). The two sides exchanged fire for several hours. Over 20 Nigerian soldiers were killed or wounded. In addition, a tank and two APCs were destroyed, and five vehicles, weapons and ammunition were seized (Telegram, August 11, 2019).

• On August 10, 2019, ISIS operatives activated an IED against a Nigerian army vehicle in the village of Malam Fatori, about 200 km north of Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State. The passengers were killed and wounded (Telegram, August 11, 2019).

Mozambique

• ISIS’s Central Africa Province announced that its operatives had attacked a Christian village in the Cabo Delgado Province in northeastern Mozambique. When the ISIS operatives entered the village, its residents fled along with Mozambican soldiers. Several houses were set on fire (Telegram, August 12, 2019). This is the fourth time in the recent past that homes of local residents opposed to ISIS have been set on fire.
• ISIS’s Central Africa Province announced that its operatives had attacked Mozambican army forces in the Cabo Delgado Province in northeastern Mozambique. Photos that were published show the bodies of dead military personnel and weapons that were seized (Telegram, August 12, 2019). This may be the same incident mentioned above.

Yemen

• ISIS operatives continued their activity against Al-Qaeda operatives in the Qifah area in the northwest of the Al-Bayda Province (some 100 km southeast of Sana’a). This activity included the activation of an IED against an Al-Qaeda operative riding a motorcycle. The operative was killed (Telegram, August 10, 2019). ISIS operatives also launched mortar shells at Al-Qaeda operatives and against positions of the Houthi rebels in the Qifah area (Telegram, August 8, 9, 2019).

• On August 13, 2019, an ISIS operative fired at the car of a Yemeni army soldier in the city of Aden (ISIS’s Yemen Province, Aden-Abyan Region, August 13, 2019).

^[1] As part of the Kurdish autonomous rule, a commune consists of several families residing in a limited geographic area, such as neighborhoods or small villages (Sawt Kurdistan, October 25, 2018). ↑

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