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Ad Hoc Studies

Iran and the Policy of Targeted Killings Attributed to Israel: Between Threats and Constraints

Since early December 2023, eight IRGC officers have been killed in operations attributed to Israel in Syria. Following the deaths of the IRGC operatives, and especially after the targeted killing of Mousavi and five IRGC officers in Damascus, senior Iranian officials threatened a harsh response against Israel. Although the possibility of a harsher response from Iran in the future cannot be ruled out, at this stage, there is a discrepancy between the intensity of the threats made by senior Iranian officials against Israel and their actual implementation. The gap reflects Iran's dilemma vis-à-vis the targeted killing policy attributed to Israel. Against the backdrop of continued targeted killings attributed to Israel, there are growing voices in Iran calling for a direct response against Israel and for abandoning the policy of "strategic patience," which is intended to reduce the risk of a military confrontation with Israel and the United States amid the ongoing war in Gaza. In recent days, Iranian commentators and media have warned that the continuation of the current policy, which avoids a significant direct response against Israel, compromises Iranian deterrence, reflects weakness, and may be interpreted by Iran's enemies as apathy and inability to respond to ongoing damage to its national security. Although at this stage, there has been no apparent change in Iran's policy of response, the continued targeted killings attributed to Israel, along with the intensification of internal criticism in Iran in light of the gap between the belligerent statements against Israel and the relatively restrained responses, may increase the pressure on the Iranian leadership to intensify its responses against Israel, even at the cost of taking risks of further escalation.
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Mapping the leaders of the demonstrations supporting Hamas in eastern European Union countries since the outbreak of Operation Iron Swords

Since Hamas' October 7, 2023, terrorist attack and massacre, and the beginning of the IDF's Operation Iron Swords, pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel demonstrations have been held in many European Union (EU) countries, including countries in the east. The demonstrators call for a ceasefire and the end of the local government's support for Israel, and chant anti-Israeli slogans, the most popular of which is "From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free."The demonstrations the EU's east are organized by the local Palestinian communities in cooperation with radical left organizations, anti-government organizations and anarchist movements. This study will examine the entities leading the pro-Palestinian and pro-Hamas demonstrations in Poland, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Greece and Croatia.
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Documents brought back from the Gaza Strip indicate that Hamas premeditated its atrocities against Israelis and to kidnap and maltreat them

According to documents located by IDF forces in the Gaza Strip and found in the possession of Hamas operatives who participated in the terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, it would appear that the Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip instructed the organization's terrorist operatives to brutalize Jews, both soldiers and civilians, while justifying such actions "in the name of Islam." The documents indicate that violent attacks on civilians had been planned in advance. Training included careful preparations for attacking shelters to take hostages, stripping them and threatening to kill them while questioning them. The captured documents show profound anti-Semitism coupled with radical Islamist ideology of the type which characterizes extremist organizations such as ISIS and al-Qaeda. The captured documents are clear and unequivocal proof that contrary to the claims made by senior Hamas members after the attack and massacre, that the "operation" targeted only military personnel, it had been planned in advance to carry out premeditated acts of violence against the civilian residents of t the cities, towns and villages surrounding the Gaza Strip.
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Iranian media references to military aid provided by Iran to Hamas in the past

Since the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip, the Iranian media has published several reports regarding military aid Iran has provided Hamas in the Gaza Strip over the years. Iran does not hide its support for the Palestinians, including Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and even takes pride in it. Iran’s desire to expand its threats against Israel by creating a “ring of fire” around Israel’s borders has led Iran to strengthen its ties with the Palestinian terrorist organizations, first and foremost Hamas. With the Qods Force leading its efforts, Iran assists these organizations by supplying weapons (including rockets threatening central and southern Israel), providing tens of millions of dollars a year to finance the construction of military infrastructure and the ongoing operation of the military force, transferring technological know-how for the development and production of weapons (including rockets), and training operatives (who left the Gaza Strip) through the Qods Force. Iranian media reports on Iran’s military support for Hamas mainly refer to the IRGC’s rocket and missile support, including building self-production capabilities. Prominent in this context is the involvement of former Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani and other senior officials in the IRGC missile field. According to a single statement by a Hamas representative in Lebanon, Soleimani also initiated the concept of the tunnels used by Hamas.
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The main points of Hassan Nasrallah’s speeches (January 3 and 5, 2024)

Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah delivered two televised speeches.The speeches were prompted by the war in the Gaza Strip, the ongoing fighting between Hezbollah and Israel and the killing attributed to Israel of Saleh al-'Arouri, deputy head of Hamas' political bureau and responsible for the movement's activities in Judea and Samaria; he was killed in the Dahiyeh, a Shi'ite suburb in south Beirut, on January 2, 2024. The speeches were substantially different from one another: In the first speech, Nasrallah praised the actions of the "resistance axis" during the past months .In the second speech, Nasrallah focused on the conflict between Israel and south Lebanon.
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Reactions to the killing of Saleh al-‘Arouri

On the evening of January 2, 2024, an explosion occurred in the Musharrafiya area of the Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut. The attack killed Saleh al-'Arouri, deputy head of Hamas' political bureau and responsible for the movement's terrorist activities in Judea and Samaria. Six other terrorists were killed with him, two of them senior commanders of Hamas' military-terrorist wing in Lebanon. Hamas, Hezbollah and other members of the Iranian-led "resistance axis"[1] accused Israel and published notices condemning the killing, attacking Israel and calling for revenge.. Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, warned Israel and said that if Israel wanted to wage war with Lebanon, Hezbollah's response would be "unlimited. Apparently, killing al-'Arouri in the heart of Hezbollah's stronghold embarrassed the organization, which sponsored the senior Hamas terrorist responsible for Hamas' ties with Hezbollah and Iran, and perhaps gave it reason to be concerned about the welfare of its senior terrorist operatives, who are also concentrated in the district.
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