Iraq

Iran’s Conduct in Recent Months Indicates a Shift to Direct Military Action over Use of Proxies

Since abandoning its “strategic patience” policy in May 2019, which Iran adopted following the announcement by U.S. President, Donald Trump, in May 2018, to withdraw from the JCPOA and re-impose sanctions against it, Tehran initiated a number of offensive operations in the Persian Gulf region
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Spotlight on Global Jihad (September 26 – October 6, 2019)

The unilateral ceasefire in the Idlib region declared by the Syrian army continues. Intensive guerilla activity by ISIS continues in the Euphrates Valley, in the area of Al-Raqqah and in the area between Deir ez-Zor and Albukamal. In the northern Sinai Peninsula, ISIS continues its high-intensity terrorist and guerrilla activities against the Egyptian security forces and local residents who collaborate with them. Apart from Egypt, noteworthy activity took place in two provinces: In the states of Borno and Yobe, in northwestern Nigeria and Nangarhar Province in eastern Afghanistan,
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Spotlight on Iran (September 22 – October 6, 2019)

Recently, the official website of the Supreme Leader of Iran uncharacteristically published photos documenting a meeting of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and the Commander of the Qods Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Qasem Soleimani. Iranian media reported extensively about the re-opening of the Albu Kamal-al-Qaem border crossing between Iraq and Syria. The Iranian Ambassador to Baghdad, Iraj Masjedi, threatened that Iran will strike American forces stationed in Iraq if the U.S. carries out an attack against it. The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Baqeri, confirmed that Iran is providing assistance in the form of military advice to the Houthi rebels in Yemen. He denied, however, the allegations that Iran is transferring missiles to Yemen.
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Spotlight on Global Jihad (September 19-25, 2019)

The unilateral ceasefire in the Idlib region declared by the Syrian army was also maintained this week. At the same time, artillery exchanges continued, and the Syrian army apparently thwarted local attempted assault by the rebel organizations. ISIS’s terrorist and guerrilla activity continued this week in various sectors in eastern Syria. In the various provinces in Iraq, ISIS’s terror and guerrilla activity continued. ISIS’s “routine” attacks continued in its various provinces in Africa and Asia. This week, among others, attacks were carried out in Nigeria, Egypt, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
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Recently, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi released a new audio recording. The recording apparently reflects his increased self-confidence in view of ISIS’s successful resumption of its activity. He calls on his adherents to step up terrorist attacks worldwide, especially actions promoting the release of ISIS captives from jail.

On September 16, 2019, ISIS’s Al-Furqan media arm released an audio recording of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi entitled “And Say, Do”. The audiotape is about 30 minutes long. Al-Baghdadi tries to raise his operatives’ morale by mentioning ISIS attacks in the various fighting zones (Africa, Afghanistan, and the Far East).
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Spotlight on Iran (September 8, 2019 – September 22, 2019)

On September 16, the fifth round of talks between the presidents of Iran, Russia and Turkey concerning Syria’s future was held in Ankara. Dozens of Iranian companies participated in the fifth Damascus International Fair on reconstruction of the country, which was held in the Syrian capital in mid-September. Following attacks attributed to Israel against targets in western Iraq and ongoing escalation between Iran and the United States, Iran and the Shi’ite militias in Iraq are expanding their coordination. Iran rejected U.S. claims about its direct involvement is striking two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia on September 14. Despite the responsibility claim by the Houthi rebels in Yemen, the United States blamed Iran for the attack, which significantly disrupted Saudi Arabia’s oil output.
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