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The Collapse of the Islamic State: What Comes Next?

On the ground, the Islamic State no longer exists as a functioning territorial entity. It has lost almost all of its territories, including its "capital cities" of Mosul and Raqqa, as well as its core territories along the Euphrates in Iraq and Syria. Apparently, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's vision of an Islamic Caliphate has come to an end, at least for the time being, although ISIS still maintains a presence in Syria and Iraq, and will continue to exist.
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Spotlight on Global Jihad (November 9-15, 2017)

In the city of Albukamal, a fierce battle is being waged over the last stronghold of the Islamic State in Syria The Iraqi army, which liberated the city of Al-Qaim and the surrounding villages. Russia, the United States, and Jordan have signed a Memorandum of Principles (November 8, 2017). Moreover, the Memorandum of Principles deals with southwestern Syria and does not mention the removal of foreign forces from Syria.
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Spotlight on Global Jihad (November 2 – 8, 2017, 2017)

The conquest of the regions controlled by the Islamic State has reached the last lap. Abu Kamal, ISIS's last stronghold, is currently under combined pressure from the Syrian army, the Shi'ite militias and Hezbollah operatives, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) advancing on the city from both sides of the Euphrates. The strategically significant events in Syria were overshadowed this week by potentially explosive local events in the northern Golan Heights.
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Spotlight on Global Jihad (October 26 – November 1, 2017)

A ramming attack was carried out this week in New York City (Lower Manhattan) on a bicycle path, by means of a rented pickup truck. In Syria and Iraq, Syrian and Iraqi forces are advancing in the Euphrates Valley in order to take over the last remaining “core areas” along the Euphrates River still under ISIS’s control, in the area between Rawa and Al-Qaim (Iraq) and Abu Kamal (Syria). In the ITIC’s assessment, the return of the foreign fighters to their home countries is expected to pose a serious security problem.
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Spotlight on Global Jihad (October 3-18, 2017)

Over the past week, the rapid collapse of the Islamic State, which is about to lose its last remaining strongholds in Syria and Iraq, has accelerated. In the face of ISIS’s defeats in Syria and Iraq, the operational capabilities of ISIS’s Sinai Province are noteworthy.
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Spotlight on Global Jihad (September 28 – October 2, 2017)

This week as well, the events in Syria centered around the areas of Idlib and Deir ez-Zor: A noteworthy event at the propaganda level is an audiotape released by ISIS and attributed to its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The calls by Al-Baghdadi and ISIS’s propaganda machine to intensify the attacks abroad are apparently being heeded.
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