Iranian Responses to President Trump’s Speech

Overview

• On October 13, 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Iran has committed multiple violations of the nuclear agreement and thus he will not certify the deal. He accused the Iranian regime of supporting terrorism around the world and repeatedly criticized the nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). According to Trump, Tehran’s “dangerous aggression has only escalated” since the signing of the nuclear deal in the summer of 2015. Trump declared that the U.S. administration intends to collaborate with its allies, impose new sanctions on Iran and act to check Iran’s ballistic missile program. The president warned that if the administration does not reach an agreement with the U.S. Congress regarding the future of the nuclear deal, it will unilaterally terminate it. Following the president’s speech, the U.S. Treasury Department announced the imposition of additional sanctions against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), as a terror-sponsoring organization.

• President Trump’s speech aroused angry reactions in Iran, although the Iranians attempted to downplay the importance of Trump’s proclamation. They claimed that there is nothing new about the strategy announced by Trump and cast the speech as a manifestation of Trump’s political weakness, which forced him to abandon his initial decision to abrogate the nuclear deal and the intention to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization. According to them, the new American strategy is a reflection of the failure of America’s regional policy, which manifested in the defeat of ISIS, and an attempt by the U.S. administration to appease its allies in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel. Senior Iranian officials emphasizes that the U.S. cannot do anything against Iran as the U.S. is isolated in the international arena. Commentary in Iranian media highlighted President Trump’s isolation at home and abroad, his uncertain political future and the backing offered by the international community, and specifically leaders of the European Union, to Iran and the widespread opposition to the Trump administration.
• Senior Iranian regime officials declared that Iran does not intent to acquiesce to the demands of the American administration and change its policy. Those officials also attempted to project an appearance of internal unity in the face of Trump’s threats. Concerning the nuclear question, Iranian officials, chief among them President Rouhani, stated that Iran will continue to abide by the nuclear agreement as long as it serves Iran’s national interests, and at least until its formal abrogation by the United States. Iranian officials emphasized, however, that if the agreement is annulled and sanctions are re-imposed on Iran, Iran is keeping all options on the table. Regarding the Iranian ballistic missile program, Iranian officials declared that not only is it non-negotiable, but Iran intends to accelerate its development for defensive and deterrence purposes. With regards to Iran’s regional involvement, senior Iranian officials expressed their full backing for the activities of the IRGC, which according to them is bearing most of the burden of combating “terrorism” in the region. They presented the organization as a national symbol and a defender of the homeland that enjoys the support of the entire Iranian people.

Understanding Iran’s Reaction

• The initial responses in Iran to President Trump’s speech reflect Iran’s concerns about the ongoing escalation of tensions with the United States and its possible ramifications. At the same time, Iranian officials recognize the limited ability of the Trump administration to change America’s policy vis-à-vis Iran, since:
  • The abrogation of the nuclear agreement and re-imposition of economic sanctions on Iran, even if done unilaterally, may encumber even further the return of European and Western firms to the Iranian market and thus forestall Tehran’s effort to boost Iran’s economy. However, the ability to the United States to once again marshal a sweeping international consensus to re-impose sanctions and increase pressure on Iran, thus forcing it to renegotiate the nuclear agreement is in great doubt.
  • Iran’s ballistic missile program: Iran fear that the United States may increase pressure on Iran and ratchet up interdiction efforts, which are intended to delay Iran’s procurement, research and development efforts in the field of ballistic missiles. However, according to Iran’s view, the U.S. can significantly delay the ongoing production of missiles, part of Iran’s operational formation, only by employing military force.
  • Iran’s growing regional clout and its support for subversion and terrorism: The United States can significantly increase the financial and military pressure on Iran and its proxies in the region, as well as its intelligence efforts concerning Iran’s involvement in subversion and terrorism. However, the effectiveness of America’s actions depends on several factors:
    • The willingness of the United States to utilize military might and even risk a military confrontation with Iran in an effort to stymie Iranian influence, especially in regions where the Americans maintain an active military presence (for example, the tri-border area of Syria-Iraq-Jordan and in the Persian Gulf).
    • The willingness of other regional actors, including Turkey, the Baghdad government and the Kurds, in addition to outside powers, chief among them Russia, which has become the most dominant actor in Syria, to cooperate with the American efforts to undermine Iran and its “Resistance Axis” allies (Hezbollah, the Shi’ite militias, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad).
    • Regional developments, including the negotiations process concerning the war in Syria, the willingness of the Shi’ite militias in Iraq to be incorporated into the Iraqi armed forces, the results of the upcoming elections in Iraq set for April 2018, developments in the Palestinian arena and the ongoing conflict in Yemen.

Several days after Trump’s speech, an escalation occurred between the Kurds and the Iraqi government backed by Shi’ite militias around the city of Kirkuk. This escalation perfectly illustrates (according to Iran’s view, at least) the fickleness of America’s policies and the limitations on U.S. power in dealing with regional developments, which are not under its total control. While Iran plays an active role in events and applies pressure on the Kurds (the visit of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC’s Qods Forces in mid-October 2017), in the face of the recent escalation, the U.S. adopted a policy that appears indecisive.

In our estimate, at this stage, the Iranian regime would prefer to wait and see what are the concrete ramifications of the new policy presented by President Trump when it comes to the nuclear deal and the other points of contention between Iran and the international community. We estimate that if the new American policy does not lead to a substantive change in the American approach to Iran, Tehran will not see a reason to alter its policy. Iran’s policy-makers see the nuclear program, the development of ballistic missiles and entrenching Iran’s regional influence as national interests vital for the preservation of Iran’s national security and the mere survival of the regime. At the same time, Iran may, at most, moderate its public tone and some elements of its defiant behavior toward the United States and the international community when it comes to launching surface-to-surface missiles, actions against American vessels in the Persian Gulf, and more.

Appendix A

Reactions of Senior Iranian Officials to Trump’s Speech

• Iran’s President, Hassan Rouhani, stated in a speech, broadcast live on Iranian television several hours following Trump’s proclamation, that the speech was nothing but “a series of insults and baseless accusations against the Iranian people.” He called on President Trump to better study history, geography, international rights, manners and morals. Rouhani mentioned that a country that has twice used nuclear weapons, threatened to use these weapons against a country in the region and supports Israel, which possesses nuclear weapons, cannot present itself as a champion of fighting for nuclear non-proliferation.
• The Iranian president stated that the United States cannot treat the nuclear deal as a contract between two states, since it was signed by the international community. He added that Iran will continue to abide by the agreement as long as its rights and interests are safeguarded. However, if the nuclear agreement does not serve its national interests and the other side reneges on its obligations, Iran will not hesitate for a moment and will respond accordingly.
• Rouhani defended his country’s missile program, which according to him, has a defensive purpose. He declared that Iran will double its efforts to develop the program. Rouhani also expressed his complete support for the IRGC, which is fighting terrorism, according to the Iranian president (Iranian news agencies, October 13, 2017).
• Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, stated in an interview to Iranian television (October 14, 2017) that there is nothing new about Trump’s statement, and that no one was surprised by his speech after decades of American aggression against Iran. He mentioned that only the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) can certify whether Iran meets its obligations under the nuclear accord.
• Zarif warned that if the United States reimposes the sanctions that were lifted following the nuclear deal, Iran will adopt its own measures in response. He stated that if the sanctions on sectors important to Iran, including the export of oil, shipping and sale of airplanes, are reimposed, Iran will have the right to make a decision on whether to remain committed to the nuclear agreement. He added that if Iran reaches the conclusion that because of a “strategic mistake” made by the other side the nuclear agreement no longer serves Iran’s interests, the country will restart its nuclear program for peaceful purposes.
• Zarif mentioned that Europe has vital economic, political and security interests in preserving the nuclear agreement. In the coming months, he added, it will become apparent to what extent Europe is willing to resist America’s policy and able to realize its influential role in the international arena.
• When referring to the IRGC, the Iranian foreign minister stated that the organization is a source of pride for the entire Iranian people, and it ensures Iran’s territorial integrity, together with the regular armed forces. In a tweet published on his Twitter account (October 14, 2017), Zarif asserted that all Iranians stand behind the IRGC who are protecting Iran and the region as a whole from aggression and terror.
• Zarif addressed his county’s missile program in the interview and asserted that it is not up for negotiations. He mentioned that Iran decided to negotiate only about the nuclear issue so as not to complicate the situation further, and because it believes that self-defense is under its sole responsibility. Iran lives in a region where there is a great deal of weaponry, he argued, and it has the right to hold defensive means and no one has the right to intervene in this matter. He claimed that Iran’s defense budget is the lowest in the region compared to those of U.S. allies, which spend immense sums purchasing American weapons. Iran has no offensive intentions, asserted Zarif, and it is interested in the stability and security of the region.
• The Iranian First Vice President, Eshaq Jahangiri, stated that Iran’s missile capabilities are intended for defensive purposes only and are non-negotiable. He argued that the purpose of the strategy presented by Trump in his speech was “psychological warfare” against Iran. Jahangiri asserted that Trump’s does not scare anyone in Iran and that the leaders of Russia, the European Union and the IAEA have already clarified that Iran meets its obligations under the nuclear accord. He added that Trump is isolated now more than ever, and does not know that the historical name of the Persian Gulf is not the “Arab Gulf.” The Vice President joined other senior officials in defending the activities of the IRGC and stated that without the guidance offered to countries in the region, Damascus and Baghdad would today be under ISIS control, and no one would be able to fight against the jihadist organization (Tasnim, October 14, 2017).
• Ali-Akbar Velayati, the Supreme Leader’s Adviser on International Affairs, stated that there is nothing new about the approach of the U.S. president vis-à-vis Iran, and that Iran will respond in kind to every measure that harms its interests (Fars, October 15, 2017).

• The Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, stated that the United States wishes to continue pressuring Iran to elicit further concessions from it pertaining to the nuclear agreement. He claimed that Trump’s speech is a result of the failure of America’s policy in the region. Following the defeat of ISIS, the United States wishes to continue its policy, which aims to divide the nations of the region, and it is Iran that is stopping the U.S. from realizing this goal. He added that the United States knows very well that Iran and the IRGC are among the central actors that brought about the eradication of ISIS in the region. The IRGC has always proven that they defend not only Iran and the Islamic Revolution, but also “the oppressed and downtrodden”, he claimed. Shahroudi added that Iran’s leadership has stated several times in the past that they will not allow the crippling of their country’s military and defensive capabilities and these are not up for negotiations (yjc.ir, October 14, 2017).
• The Head of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Kamal Kharazi, declared that the world today is facing a personality similar to Hitler’s and that resistance to such a dictator, who destabilizes the world order, is the only option. He asserted that Iran, which has been struggling against U.S. aggression for forty years, is not afraid of Trump’s dictatorial conduct and will respond in kind and with all its might to any measure undertaken by the United States (Mehr, October 14, 2017).
• The Spokesman of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Seyyed Hossein Naqavi, argued that Trump did not have the courage to fulfil his pledge to retreat from the nuclear agreement. He asserted that as long as Iran finds the agreement beneficial, it will remain committed to it. He added that the Americans are facing a series of failures in the international and Middle Eastern arenas, opining that Trump’s speech reflects his anxiety and stems from America’s latest failures. The United States is interested in ratcheting up the economic sanctions against Iran so as to enfeeble it, but the Iranian people will respond with its powerful fists, as it has done in the past, proclaimed Naqavi (Mehr, October 14, 2017).

Appendix B

The Elements of Reactions from Different Iranian Bodies and Officials

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs

• An official statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in response to Trump’s speech asserted that the United States as adopted a hostile attitude toward Iran since the Islamic Revolution in an effort to bring about the downfall of the regime. The statement praised in IRGC as a force standing in the forefront of fighting terrorism in the region, and a guarantor of the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that any action by the United States against the IRGC would constitute a “strategic mistake” and result in a forceful Iranian response.
• The statement also claimed that Iran’s missile program is intended for defensive and deterrence purposes and is non-negotiable. The statement forcefully rejected Trump’s claims about Iranian violations of the nuclear accord and emphasized that Iran has proven its commitment to the agreement, unlike the United States, which has violated it several times in the past. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized in its statement that the nuclear deal is an international agreement that is not the subject of re-negotiations, or unilateral changes or rescissions. Iran will not be the first to retreat from the agreement, but if its rights and interests are not respected, it will stop fulfilling its obligations and renew its nuclear program for peaceful purposes without any limitations (IRNA, October 13, 2017).

Iran’s Hardliners

• In Iran’s internal arena, hardliner critics of the government, who opposed the nuclear agreement a priori, exploited Trump’s speech to once again lambast President Rouhani. They presented Trump’s announcement as further evidence to their assertion that the Iranian government was wrong to adopt a conciliatory policy, trust the United States and agree to sign the nuclear deal with the West, which is led by the United States. The opponents of the president called to reexamine Iran’s commitment to the nuclear agreement, which according to them did not contribute anything to Iran and only harmed its interests.
• At the same time, critics of the government largely avoided explicitly calling for a purposeful violation of the accord by Iran. This is because even the hardliners recognize that if the United States violates the agreement, the blame for the agreement’s collapse will be cast on the U.S. and not Iran. According to Rouhani’s critics, the European countries can not be trusted to stand by Iran’s side in case the United States abrogates the agreement. In their view, if the United States decides to void the accord, European countries will prefer to renege on their obligations as well; this is due to economic considerations and because the Europeans would fear American retaliation if they choose otherwise.
• In the radical camp, some even called to take military action against American forces stationed in the Middle East. The hardline newspaper Resalat (October 14) warned that the IRGC will continue the bargaining with the United States in the battlefield and not around the negotiations’ table and that the result of these negotiations will manifest in the air, on the ground and in the sea. The United States should know that its bases in the region are under threat and that the borders of the “regime occupying Jerusalem” (a term for Israel) are under threat now more than ever. The United States should know that Iran’s defensive strategy can not remain thus and that Iran will adopt preventive measures to deal with the threats from the United States and the “Zionist regime.”
• On the eve of Trump’s speech, the Commander of the IRGC, Mohammad Ali Jafari, warned that if the U.S. designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization, the IRGC will regard the American armed forces around the world, and in particular in the Middle East, as they regard ISIS. He added that if the United States decides to impose new sanctions on Iran, it will have to move its military bases to a region beyond the 2,000 km (1,240 mile) range of Iran’s missiles (Mehr, October 8).
• The Editor of the hardline Iranian daily Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari, stated that Trump’s speech cannot go unanswered by Iran. He argued that the most effective response should be launching inter-continental ballistic missiles, which are the “Achilles heel” of the United States, as it maintains fifty military bases and several tens of thousands of soldiers in the Middle East. He stated that Trump should know that not only is the region unsafe for American military personnel, but that his strategic allies in the region, Israel and some of the region’s regimes, which serve as American “puppets,” should know that they too are not safe from Iran’s wrath (Fars, October 14, 2017).

On Social Media

• On social media, Trump’s speech aroused harsh criticism, especially due to his labeling of the Persian Gulf in his speech as “the Arab Gulf,” which is considered by Iranians as a slight to their national pride. Shortly after the speech, Iranian netizens launched a campaign on social media condemning President Trump and his policy toward Iran using the hashtags #NeverTrustUSA and #IranKeepsPromise and the #Persian_Gulf in both Persian and English. In addition, Iranian netizens launched a campaign of support for the IRGC. This campaign received mixed reactions, which included manifestations of support for the IRGC as an organization protecting Iran and its citizens, but also reservations due to the IRGC’s role in the political repression of regime opponents.

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