Spotlight on Global Jihad (March 14-20, 2019)

Main events of the week

• The battle for the takeover of the ISIS outpost in Al-Baghouz is coming to an end. According to the spokesman of the SDF forces, the village and the concentration of ISIS operatives outside it (Al-Baghouz Camp) were taken over by the SDF. According to him, ISIS operatives were repelled into a narrow strip along the Euphrates River. In Al-Baghouz Camp, the SDF captured hundreds of sick and wounded ISIS operatives who were transferred to military hospitals.
• Following are the main events in the various arenas in Syria:
  • In the Upper Euphrates River (the Al-Mayadeen area), this week ISIS engaged in intensive activity against the SDF forces and the civilians collaborating with them. In the ITIC’s assessment, the attacks carried out by ISIS in this area are intended as an attempt to divert attention from the battle taking place in the village of Al-Baghouz. Moreover, this activity indicates that even after the anticipated fall of the “pocket” in Al-Baghouz, ISIS will still possess operational capabilities in the Euphrates Valley.
  • In the Idlib area, exchanges of artillery fire continue between the Syrian army and the jihadi rebel organizations. This week, Russian fighter jets carried out airstrikes in Idlib, one of which caused damage to the central prison. Several dozen prisoners (mostly ISIS operatives) escaped, but most of them were caught by Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham operatives.
  • In the city of Manbij and its environs, the SDF forces and the SDF-backed local military council launched an operation aimed at exposing ISIS and pro-Turkish elements. It can be assumed that this move is liable to increase the tension with Turkey, which seeks to take control of Manbij and its environs.
• In light of the pressure exerted on ISIS in Syria, ISIS’s provinces in Iraq and abroad carried out intensive activities this week:
  • In Iraq, ISIS operatives continue their guerrilla activities against the Iraqi security forces. The conspicuous modus operandi this week was attaching sticky bombs to vehicles of the Iraqi security forces.
  • In Kabul and Jalalabad, Afghanistan, several attacks were carried out against the Afghan security forces, mainly by detonating IEDs.
  • In Tunisia, ISIS reported on military activity, including patrols, the preparation of IEDs, and the execution of a Tunisian security official. These operations may have been carried out by a new province established in Tunisia (although no official announcement has been made to date).
  • In the southern Philippines (the island of Mindanao), ISIS continues to wage fierce fighting against the Philippine army.
• Following the massacres in two mosques in the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, ISIS’s spokesman and its websites issued calls for revenge. In the ITIC’s assessment, beyond the sense of revenge, ISIS seeks to leverage the terrorist attack against the worshipers to present itself as the protector of the Muslims, precisely at a time when it is under attack in Syria.

The Idlib area

Exchanges of fire continue between the Syrian army and the jihadi rebel organizations

• This week as well, incidents continued between the Syrian army and the jihadi rebel organizations. Following are the main ones:
• The Syrian army continued to fire artillery at rebel organization targets in the southern Idlib area. On March 16, 2019, Syrian army units exchanged fire with “terrorist squads” which tried to infiltrate from two villages about 50 km northwest of Hama. According to the Syrian army, many of the “terrorist operatives” were killed or wounded (SANA, March 16, 2019). The Syrian army also fired at positions of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and related organizations about 40 km northwest of Hama (SANA, March 17, 2019).
• The jihadi organization Ansar Al-Tawhid (“supporters of the oneness of Allah”)^[1] announced that its operatives had fired artillery at Syrian army forces 4.5 km north of the military airbase of Abu ad-Duhur (Telegram, March 18, 2019). The “Awaken the Believers” operations room (affiliated with Al-Qaeda) reported on machine gun fire at Syrian army positions 14 km southwest of Jisr Al-Shughur (Telegram, March 19, 2019).

Russian fighter jets hit the Idlib main prison

• Russian fighter jets carried out several airstrikes against targets in the city of Idlib this week (on March 13 and 16, 2019). One of those airstrikes reportedly killed 26 people, of whom 17 were civilians, eight children and nine prisoners held at the main prison of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham. In the wake of the airstrike, dozens of prisoners managed to escape, including many ISIS operatives. According to the spokesman of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, most of the prisoners who managed to escape (over thirty) were caught (Ibaa, March 16, 2019; Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, March 17, 2019).

   
Right: Russian fighter jets carrying out airstrikes in Idlib (Ibaa, March 16, 2019). Left: ISIS operatives who escaped from the Idlib main prison after the Russian airstrike (Telegram, March 14, 2019)

Eastern Syria

The battle in the village of Al-Baghouz (updated to March 20, 2019)

• The decisive battle in the village of Al-Baghouz Fawqani, which started on March 1, 2019, is still ongoing, with Coalition air cover. About 500 ISIS operatives reportedly remain in the village (Furat Post Facebook page, March 16, 2019). SDF Spokesman Mostafa Bali announced that the village of Al-Baghouz and most of the area adjacent to it, which was held by ISIS (“Al-Baghouz Camp”), were taken over by the SDF. According to him, the ISIS operatives were repelled into a narrow strip along the Euphrates River (Mostafa Bali’s Twitter account, March 19, 2019).
• On March 13, 2019, ISIS operatives attacked the area taken over by the SDF in the village of Al-Baghouz. The Kurds reported that the attack had failed. A total of 38 ISIS operatives were killed, including eight suicide bombers. The SDF forces sustained four fatalities (Mostafa Bali’s Twitter account, March 13, 2019). After repelling the attack, the SDF operatives resumed their advance and took over several buildings in the village, with the assistance of Coalition airstrikes and massive artillery fire (March 14-16, 2019). The ISIS fighters retreated from several sites in the village towards the Euphrates (Furat Post Facebook page, March 16, 2019). On March 18, 2019, the fierce battles continued. The SDF forces managed to penetrate into the northern part of the “pocket” in Al-Baghouz (ANHA, March 18, 2019).

    
ISIS operatives during the fighting against the SDF forces in the village of Al-Baghouz (Shabakat Shumukh, March 16, 2019)

    
Right: ISIS operative in the “pocket” in Al-Baghouz speaking against the “Crusaders” (i.e., the Christians, members of the International Coalition) and noting that ISIS protects the Muslims. Left: ISIS operatives shooting at the SDF forces in Al-Baghouz (Telegram, video released by the Amaq News Agency, March 18, 2019)

• According to the reports of SDF Spokesman Mostafa Bali, the village of Al-Baghouz and the concentration of ISIS operatives outside it (“Al-Baghouz Camp”) were taken over. In the “Al-Baghouz Camp,” hundreds of sick and wounded ISIS operatives were captured and transferred for treatment at military hospitals (Mostafa Bali’s Twitter account, March 19, 2019).

ISIS operatives continue to try to escape or turn themselves in

• SDF Spokesman Mostafa Bali said that another group of ISIS operatives turned themselves in to the forces (Mostafa Bali’s Twitter account, March 15, 2019). Mostafa Bali said that ISIS operatives had carried out three simultaneous suicide bombing attacks against ISIS families and operatives who turned themselves in to the SDF forces. The attacks were carried out in the passage leading from Al-Baghouz to the area under SDF control, in order to prevent them from turning themselves in. As a result of the attack, six ISIS operatives who were trying to escape from the “pocket” were killed and several others were wounded (Mostafa Bali’s Twitter account, March 15, 2019).

Northeastern Syria

Terrorist attacks in the Al-Mayadeen area continue

• ISIS carried out intensive activity this week against the SDF forces and civilians collaborating with them in the area of the city of Al-Mayadeen (on the banks of Euphrates River, southeast of Deir ez-Zor). In the ITIC’s assessment, this activity was intended to divert the attention from the battle in the village of Al-Baghouz and alleviate the pressure exerted on the besieged ISIS operatives in the village.
• Following are the main attacks carried out in the regions of Al-Mayadeen and Deir ez-Zor:
  • Two local council members of villages southeast of Al-Mayadeen, operating under the SDF protection, were shot to death (Shabakat Shumukh; Deir ez-Zor 24 Twitter account, March 14 and 15, 2019).
  • An ambush was set up for one of the SDF fighters about 14 km southwest of Al-Mayadeen, and he was killed (Shabakat Shumukh, March 14,2019).
  • A Syrian regime “agent” was shot to death in a village about 5 km east of Al-Mayadeen (Shabakat Shumukh, March 16, 2019).
  • An ambush was set up for SDF fighters in a village north of Al-Mayadeen. Two SDF fighters were killed and three others were wounded (Shabakat Shumukh, March 16, 2019).
  • An SDF fighter was murdered 27 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen (Shabakat Shumukh, March 16, 2019).
  • An ambush was set up for SDF fighters northeast of Deir ez-Zor. Three fighters, including a commander, were killed (Shabakat Shumukh, March 16, 2019).
  • A motorcycle bomb was detonated near an SDF checkpoint in Al-Basira, 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen (Shabakat Shumukh, March 18, 2019).
  • The AMN news network reported that during the past week, a Russian soldier was killed in an ambush set up by ISIS for the Syrian forces in eastern Deir ez-Zor (AMN, March 16, 2019).

Northern Syria

Kurdish counterterrorist activity in the Manbij area

• Recently, the SDF forces reportedly launched counterterrorist activity with the intention of uncovering ISIS networks and Turkish-affiliated elements. It can be assumed that this move may escalate the tension with Turkey, which seeks to take control of the city of Manbij and its environs.
• On March 16, 2019, the SDF forces and the Manbij Military Council backed by them launched a campaign with the purpose of locating ISIS squads and Turkish-affiliated elements in the city of Manbij and its rural area (Kurdish ronahi.tv website, March 16, 2019; Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, March 17, 2019). On March 18, 2019, checkpoints were reportedly set up in Manbij and its environs (Facebook, March 18, 2019).

Main developments in Iraq

ISIS’s terrorist and guerrilla activity

• This week, ISIS continued its guerilla warfare against the Iraqi security forces. Prominent in these activities was the use of sticky bombs which ISIS operatives attached to vehicles of the Iraqi security forces.
• Following are the highlights of ISIS’s activity in the past week (based on ISIS reports):
• Diyala Province: On March 13, 2019, ISIS snipers shot at members of the Iraqi oil police (engaged in the protection of oil facilities) 39 km east of Baqubah. One policeman was killed, and another was wounded (Shabakat Shumukh, March 14, 2019). In the same area, ISIS operatives detonated an IED against a vehicle of the Popular/Tribal Mobilization. Four of the passengers were killed or wounded (Shabakat Shumukh, March 14, 2019).
• Nineveh Province:
  • On March 13, 2019, ISIS operatives attached a sticky bomb to an Iraqi army vehicle in the western part of the city of Mosul. Three soldiers were killed (Shabakat Shumukh, March 14, 2019).
  • On March 13, 2019, ISIS operatives attached a sticky bomb to a vehicle of one of the Tribal Mobilization members in the neighborhood of Al-Intisar, in the southeastern part of Mosul (the east bank). The Tribal Mobilization member was killed (Shabakat Shumukh, March 14, 2019).
  • On March 14, 2019, ISIS operatives attached a sticky bomb to a vehicle in the village of Rabia, near the Iraqi-Syrian border (about 50 km northwest of Tal Afar). A Popular/Tribal Mobilization commander was wounded (Shabakat Shumukh, March 16, 2019).
• Salah al-Din Province: On March 14, 2019, ISIS operatives set on fire the houses of two Tribal Mobilization members 6 km west of Samarra (Shabakat Shumukh, March 16, 2019). Breaking into an apartment near Lake Tharthar, ISIS operatives shot dead four Iraqi intelligence personnel (about 50 km west of Samarra) (Shabakat Shumukh, March 15, 2019).

    
Right: Equipment of four Iraqi intelligence personnel who were shot to death by ISIS operatives (Shabakat Shumukh, March 15, 2019). Left: ISIS operative setting fire to the house of one of the Tribal Mobilization members in a village west of Samarra (Shabakat Shumukh, March 18, 2019)

Counterterrorist activities by the Iraqi security forces

• Following are the main counterterrorist activities carried out by the Iraqi security forces:
• The 2nd Brigade of the Popular Mobilization and the Iraqi security forces located a cache of weapons containing rockets and mortar shells in the Najaf Desert (138 km south of Baghdad) (al-hashed.net, March 13, 2019).

    
Right: Popular Mobilization personnel and the Iraqi security forces near a hideout of the weapons. Left: Weapons located in the Najaf Desert (al-hashed.net, March 13, 2019).

• The Iraqi Military Intelligence Directorate announced that 10 ISIS hideouts had been destroyed about 40 km southwest of Kirkuk (Al-Sumaria, March 14, 2019).
• The Baghdad Operations Command announced that Iraqi army forces had killed Sabah Nouri, a senior ISIS operative who had served as the administrative and military commander of ISIS’s North Baghdad Province. He was killed north of Baghdad (Iraqi News Agency, March 15, 2019).
• The spokesman of the North Diyala Province Police reported that a security force had broken into a hideout in the eastern part of the province and killed four “terrorist operatives” (i.e., ISIS operatives) who planned to attack the province (headquarters) (Iraqi News Agency, March 17, 2019).

• The Iraqi army Al-Anbar Operations Command announced a controlled detonation of about 140 IEDs and five explosive belts of ISIS south of Fallujah (Iraqi News Agency, March 18, 2019).

Jihadi activity in other countries

ISIS’s establishment in Tunisia

ISIS-affiliated media recently published reports about the organization’s military activity in northeastern Tunisia, near the border with Algeria. This activity included patrols, the preparation of IEDs, and the execution of a Tunisian security official. Photos that were distributed in a format characteristic of ISIS’s other provinces included the word “Tunisia”. It is possible, therefore, that ISIS is establishing a new province in Tunisia, or is preparing the media ground for the establishment of a new province, even though it has not yet been officially announced^[2].

• On March 17, 2019, an ISIS-affiliated website published photos of ISIS operatives in Tunisia during a military operation. The operatives are shown patrolling and preparing an IED (Shabakat Shumukh, September 17, 2018). There were also reports of the execution of an “agent” of the Tunisian security apparatus (Al-Furat Media; Shabakat Shumukh, March 16, 2019). The format of the photos and the inscription of the province’s name are characteristic of other ISIS provinces. The photos that were distributed bore the inscription Tunis (i.e., Tunisia) on the right, although the word “Province” (wilaya) did not appear.
• Over the past year, ISIS has carried out a number of terrorist attacks in Tunisia, but to date it has not demonstrated particularly high-level military capabilities. The latest publications may reflect an effort by ISIS to establish itself in Tunisia, possibly due to the return of many operatives from Syria to their home country. It is also possible that the timing of the publications is related to ISIS’s interest in demonstrating that despite the heavy pressure exerted on it in Syria, its activity around the world continues and is even increasing. In any event, ISIS’s establishment in Tunisia is another expression of the transformation of Africa into a central arena of activity for the organization, whose provinces are creating political and security instability in North Africa and the sub-Saharan countries.

    
Right: ISIS operatives preparing shrapnel for IEDs by cutting an iron bar into small pieces. Left: ISIS operatives preparing IEDs (Shabakat Shumukh, March 17, 2019)

Military activity by the Khorasan Province

• In the past week, the Khorasan Province announced a series of operations that it had carried out:
  • Killing an “agent of the United States” with an IED in Kunar Province (Shabakat Shumukh, March 13, 2019).
  • Wounding four Afghan soldiers with two IEDs that were planted in the city of Jalalabad (Shabakat Shumukh, March 13, 2019).
  • Killing and wounding 11 Afghan soldiers by detonating three IEDs in the city of Jalalabad (Shabakat Shumukh, March 15, 2019).
  • Killing an Afghan security man in the capital Kabul with automatic weapons fire (Shabakat Shumukh, March 17, 2019).

A Russian statement on ISIS’s consolidation in northern Afghanistan

• Sergei Smirnov, chairman of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) of the Shanghai Cooperation Council (SCO^[3]) and First Deputy Director of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), said in an interview with the media that ISIS was growing stronger in northern Afghanistan. According to him, ISIS poses a significant threat to the SCO member states. After the RATS Council meeting in Tashkent, Smirnov said: “The terrorist organizations have stepped up their subversive activity and terrorist activity and are reinforcing their strongholds in northern Afghanistan. “Given the losses that it suffered in Syria and Iraq, ISIS must seek ways to reinforce the strongholds of the Caliphate. The fact that ISIS is growing stronger in northern Afghanistan could indicate a genuine threat to regional security in the near future.”

Heavy fighting in the southern Philippines

• The intensive fighting continues between ISIS operatives and the Philippine army on the island of Mindanao, in the south of the country. Around 20 ISIS operatives were reportedly killed in ground attacks and airstrikes carried out by the Philippine army. Those killed included Muhammad Ali Bin Abd al-Rahman, AKA Mu’awiya, a jihadi operative belonging to the Indonesian Jama’a Islamiya organization, who served as the Abu Sayyaf organization’s instructor on the preparation of IEDs (Manila Times, March 14, 2019). ISIS’s East Asia Province announced that its operatives had halted an attack by the Philippine army on the island of Mindanao. According to the statement, 16 Philippine army soldiers were killed and 32 others were wounded (Shabakat Shumukh, March 15, 2019).

The battle for hearts and minds

ISIS threatens New Zealand following the massacres at two mosques in the city of Christchurch

• On March 15, 2019, massacres were carried out at two mosques in the city of Christchurch, New Zealand. At least 50 worshipers were killed and around 50 others were wounded, some of them seriously. The attack was carried out by a 28-year-old Australian citizen, a radical nationalist and white supremacist who was hostile to immigrants and hated Muslims.

ISIS quickly posted a poster on websites affiliated with it, threatening to carry out a showcase attack in revenge for the attack that was carried out and on a similar scale. Beyond the feeling of revenge, ISIS seeks to leverage the terrorist attack to present itself as the protector of the Muslims and to encourage its supporters to carry out revenge attacks against targets affiliated with New Zealand (or even those affiliated with Western countries in general).

    
Right: Poster of an ISIS supporter showing weapons alongside the organization’s flag. The text on the weapon reads: “Fate will soon turn over on you.” It also reads: “There is no immunity for anyone, and the response is near” and “Patience, New Zealand, the days are diminishing [in advance of the revenge], the wounds require equal treatment” (Shabakat Shumukh; Akhbar al-Muslimeen, March 16, 2019). Left: Photo from a video filmed by the perpetrator during the attack on the mosque (Telegram, March 15, 2019)

• ISIS Spokesman Abu Hassan al-Muhajer issued an audiotape containing a series of messages to ISIS operatives and supporters. Among other things, he mentioned the massacre in New Zealand. Al-Muhajer said that Western leaders were shedding “crocodile tears” at the Muslim worshipers who were killed. According to him, this was a chain attack of disasters that the infidels had carried out against the Muslims and would carry out in the future. He called on ISIS operatives to avenge the blood of the worshipers in New Zealand (Shabakat Shumukh, March 18, 2019).

^[1] Ansar Al-Tawhid is a jihadi rebel organization established in March 2018. It consists of groups which previously belonged to the Jund Al-Aqsa (“Army of Al-Aqsa”) jihadi organization and seceded from it in late 2016 (Shabakat Sham network affiliated with the rebel organizations, March 9, 2018). ↑
^[2] See details of ISIS’s activity in Tunisia in a separate document. ↑
^[3] The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SEO) is an international organization designed to build trust and increase political, economic and security cooperation among its member states. The organization was founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The organization’s activities focus on security cooperation, economic cooperation and cultural cooperation. ↑

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