Spotlight on Global Jihad (November 21-27, 2019)

Main events

• In the Syrian arena, the pressure on the two rival jihadi organizations, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and ISIS, has increased over the past week:
  • In the Idlib region, the Syrian army successfully took over the area of the village of Mushayrafa from the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and other rebel organizations. The village is located about 30 km southeast of Idlib (east of the main highway between Hama and Aleppo). In the ITIC’s assessment, the takeover is intended to establish the Syrian army’s control over the highway, in preparation for its continued advance northward toward the city of Idlib, the stronghold of the rebel organizations.
  • In the area of Deir ez-Zor, the US army in cooperation with the Kurds (SDF) carried out an extensive operation against ISIS, which has increased its activity in the Euphrates Valley in recent months. Thus, the US continues its active involvement in Syria despite its announcements that ISIS has been defeated and that it intends to withdraw its forces from Syria.
• In Afghanistan, ISIS’s Khorasan Province suffered a severe blow in light of the success of the large-scale operation of the Afghan security forces, with the support of the United States and the Coalition. The purpose of the operation was to mop up the Nangarhar Province in eastern Afghanistan from the presence of ISIS operatives (who have made this province the center of their operations in Afghanistan). According to Afghan media reports, more than 600 ISIS operatives and several hundred members of their families have turned themselves in to the Afghan government, including many foreign fighters (Pakistanis, Indians, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Russians, Iranians and Kurds). ISIS has not yet responded to the blow that it suffered in Afghanistan.
• US and Afghan government officials claim that ISIS’s Khorasan Province has been eliminated. In the ITIC’s assessment, it is still too early to celebrate its elimination. This is because ISIS has already proven its ability to rehabilitate itself, even after the severe blows that it had sustained, and it can be assumed that it will make an effort to rehabilitate itself in Afghanistan. Another result of the blow suffered by ISIS may be the strengthening of the status of the Taliban, ISIS’s rival organization, especially in view of the bogged down negotiations with the US regarding the future of the country and the status of the Taliban there

Idlib region

Overview

In the Idlib region, the (fragile) unilateral ceasefire declared by the Syrian army about three months ago was substantially violated this week. The Syrian army initiated an offensive move against the village of Mushayrafa and several villages in its vicinity, in the southeastern part of the Idlib region (about 30 km southeast of Idlib). In the ITIC’s assessment, the takeover of the Mushayrafa area was intended to establish the Syrian army’s control over the Hama-Aleppo Road, in preparation for its continued advance northward, toward the stronghold of the rebel organizations in the city of Idlib. At the same time, this passing week, there has been an increase in the intensity of the exchanges of fire between the Syrian army and the rebel organizations (inter alia, in the Kabanah area), and there has been an increase in the intensity of the Russian and Syrian airstrikes.

Takeover of Mushayrafa by the Syrian army: overview

• On November 19, 2019, the Syrian army opened a ground attack against the rebel organizations under the leadership of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham in Mushayrafa and several villages south of it (east of the Hama-Aleppo highway). For several days, control over Mushayrafa alternated from one side to the other. On November 24, 2019, the Syrian army managed to retake Mushayrafa (see map). On November 25, 2019, the Syrian army extended its control to additional villages south of Mushayrafa. A total of 19 rebel operatives and eight Syrian soldiers were killed in the battles (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, November 25, 2019).

Airstrikes

• Russian and Syrian planes continued to attack rebel targets in the area south of Idlib:
• On November 23, 2019, Russian fighter jets carried out several airstrikes against command posts of the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Army of Glory in the area of Kafrnubl (about 30 km south of Idlib). Two operatives of the Army of Glory were killed and six others were wounded in one of the airstrikes (Khotwa, affiliated with the rebel organizations, November 23, 2019).
• On November 24, 2019, Syrian fighter jets dropped barrel bombs on targets in the area south of Idlib. The airstrike focused on the road leading to Maarat Nu’man. In addition, Russian fighter jets attacked targets in the area south and southeast of Idlib (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, November 24, 2019).
• On November 26, 2019, Syrian fighter jets dropped barrel bombs on Kafrnubl, about 30 km south of Idlib, and on other villages south of Idlib. In addition, Russian aircraft attacked Kafrnubl (Edlib Media Center – EMC, November 26, 2019). The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham reported that as a result of the airstrikes, thousands of residents had become displaced persons and moved towards the internal areas controlled by the rebel organizations (Ibaa, November 27, 2019).

    
Airstrikes in Kafrnubl
(Edlib Media Center – EMC, November 26, 2019)

Summary of the losses since the beginning of the Syrian army’s ground attack

• Since the beginning of the Syrian army’s ground attack in early May 2019, a total of 4,646 people have been killed in the Idlib region. Fatalities included 1,849 rebel organization operatives, including 1,201 operatives of jihadi organizations. Fatalities also included 1,595 soldiers and operatives of the Syrian army and the forces supporting it, and 1,202 civilians (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, November 26, 2019).

The Euphrates Valley

US and SDF operation against ISIS in the Deir ez-Zor area

• The US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that on November 22, 2019, a large-scale operation was carried out against ISIS in the Deir ez-Zor Province. According to the statement, ISIS continues to represent a “persistent threat in northeastern Syria.” The operation was carried out by the Coalition forces along with hundreds of “partnered forces” (i.e., SDF) commandos. During the operation, compounds were cleared and many ISIS operatives were killed or wounded. According to the statement, 12 ISIS operatives were taken prisoner (CENTCOM, November 23, 2019).

The participation by the US in the operation against ISIS is evidence that the US continues its active involvement in the fighting against ISIS in eastern Syria, alongside the Kurds and the SDF forces, in spite of the previous statements on the withdrawal of US forces from northern Syria and ISIS’s defeat. Now, the Americans admit that ISIS continues to present a threat in northeastern Syria and they “must stay vigilant to prevent it.”

ISIS activity in the Euphrates Valley

• On November 18, 2019, an SDF intelligence commander was targeted by machine gun fire on the Al-Omar oilfield road, about 50 km southeast of Deir ez-Zor. He was killed (Telegram, November 20, 2019).
• On November 20, 2019, two SDF fighters were shot in the village of Diban, 5 km east of Al-Mayadeen. One of them was killed and the other was severely wounded (Telegram, November 20, 2019).
• On November 23, 2019, a vehicle carrying SDF fighters was targeted by machine gun fire 8 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. Three SDF fighters were wounded (Telegram, November 23, 2019).
• On November 23, 2019, an SDF checkpoint was targeted by machine gun fire 7 km northeast of Albukamal. One SDF fighter was killed and two others were wounded (Telegram, November 23, 2019).

ISIS tries to disrupt the local government system in the Al-Mayadeen area

• On November 27, 2019, ISIS operatives spread leaflets threatening SDF local government officials in two villages near Al-Mayadeen. In addition, men and especially women were called upon to dress in accordance with Islamic religious law, threatening to punish whoever did not comply. Such threats on the part of ISIS were reportedly also made in the past, causing some of the officials and teachers in the Deir ez-Zor Province to resign (Deir ez-Zor 24, November 27, 2019).

SDF counterterrorist and preventive activity

•  On November 23, 2019, the SDF forces carried out an operation to detain ISIS operatives in Diban, 5 km east of Al-Mayadeen. During the operation, a squad numbering four operatives was detained. Weapons found in their possession were seized (SDF Press YouTube channel, November 23, 2019).

   
Right: Four ISIS squad members detained by the SDF forces. Left: Some of the weapons found in the possession of the ISIS operatives (SDF Press YouTube channel, November 23, 2019)

• On November 25, 2019, SDF forces carried out a series of detentions of former ISIS operatives in Al-Kabr, about 40 km northwest of Deir ez-Zor (Deir ez-Zor 24, November 25, 2019).

Eastern Syria

Attack against a Syrian army vehicle

• On November 24, 2019, an IED was activated against a Syrian army minibus on the Al-Wa’ar dam road (about 100 km southwest of Albukamal, near the border with Iraq). According to a news website affiliated with the Syrian regime, three soldiers, two of them officers, were killed in the blast, and 12 others were wounded (Enab Baladi, a news website affiliated with the rebel organizations, November 25, 2019). So far, no organization has claimed responsibility for the attack. However, ISIS is most likely behind it.

Northeastern Syria (the Kurdish control area)

• On November 20, 2019, an IED was activated and machine guns were fired against an SDF intelligence vehicle 35 km northwest of Al-Hasakah. An SDF commander was killed and two fighters were wounded (Telegram, November 22, 2019).
• On November 21, 2019, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle at the entrance to Al-Hasakah. Two SDF fighters were killed and two others were wounded (Telegram, November 22, 2019).

Main events in Iraq

ISIS’s terrorist and guerrilla activity

ISIS’s most prominent activity during the past week was the detonation of two car bombs in two Shiite neighborhoods in Baghdad. ISIS reported 22 casualties. For the time being, the ITIC does not have reports from Iraqi sources on the attack.

Detonation of car bombs among Shiite population in Baghdad

• On November 22, 2019, ISIS reported that its operatives had detonated two car bombs in two Shiite neighborhoods in Baghdad (the New Baghdad neighborhood in the southeastern part of the city and the Al-Sha’la neighborhood in the northwestern part of the city). The cars were parked in predominantly Shiite areas. As a result of the blasts, 22 Shiite residents were killed and wounded (Telegram, November 24, 2019).

Additional ISIS activities

Salah al-Din Province

• On November 20, 2019, an Iraqi Federal Police operative was shot and killed about 80 km north of Baghdad (Telegram, November 20, 2019).
• On November 21, 2019, ISIS operatives captured a Tribal Mobilization fighter in Baiji. He was executed (Telegram, November 23, 2019).
• On November 22, 2019, Popular Mobilization fighters were ambushed northeast of Samarra. Four Popular Mobilization fighters were killed (Telegram, November 23, 2019).
• On November 22, 2019, clashes took place between a Shiite Peace Battalions^[1] force and ISIS operatives west of Samarra (about 100 km northwest of Baghdad). One militiaman was killed and three others were wounded (Al-Sumaria News, November 22, 2019).

Diyala Province

• On November 25, 2019, ISIS operatives attacked a Popular Mobilization camp about 40 km southeast of Samarra. Two Popular Mobilization operatives were killed (Telegram, November 26, 2019).
• On November 23, 2019, an IED was activated against a Tribal Mobilization fighter about 80 km northeast of Baqubah. He was wounded (Telegram, November 23, 2019).
• On November 23, 2019, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle about 20 km southeast of Baqubah. An officer with the rank of lieutenant colonel and three soldiers were wounded (Al-Sumaria News, November 23, 2019). So far, no organization has claimed responsibility. However, ISIS is most likely behind the attack.

ISIS efforts to establish itself in the Diyala Province (in eastern Iraq)

• ISIS has reportedly increased the forced immigration of residents of the central and eastern Diyala Province, near Lake Hamrin. According to the website’s assessment, this indicates that ISIS wishes to consolidate its presence in the area, regroup and establish training camps and bases in the area (musingsoniraq.blogspot.com, November 25, 2019). Of late, ISIS has been particularly active in the Hamrin area, especially in the adjacent Jalula area.

Counterterrorist activities by the Iraqi security forces

Although the main focus of the Iraqi regime’s attention is the wave of protests in Baghdad and the southern provinces, this week, the Iraqi security forces continued their counterterrorism activities against ISIS in northern and western Iraq. The main activity was as follows:

Kirkuk Province

• On November 21, 2019, an IED was activated against a Tribal Mobilization vehicle about 30 km southwest of Kirkuk. Three fighters were wounded (Telegram, November 23, 2019).
• On November 23, 2019, the Iraqi security forces carried out an operation to locate ISIS operatives in the Al-Hawija district, about 50 km west of Kirkuk. In addition, an operation was also carried out in the Al-Abbasi area, about 70 km southwest of Kirkuk (al-hashed.net, November 23, 2019).

Salah al-Din Province

• On November 22, 2019, the Iraqi security forces carried out an operation to locate ISIS operatives in the Baiji district, about 200 km north of Baghdad. The purpose of the operation was to detain wanted elements in areas where residents displaced from their homes are returning and take care of their security (al-hashed.net, November 22, 2019).
• On November 23, 2019, International Coalition planes in coordination with the Iraqi counterterrorism unit carried out an airstrike against three tunnels and an ISIS hideout 9 km south of Shirqat (about 100 km west of Kirkuk) (Al-Sumaria News, November 23, 2019).
• On November 24, 2019, an airstrike was carried out near Tikrit, about 150 km north of Baghdad, against an ISIS hiding place (Kurdistan 24, November 24, 2019). ISIS operatives staying there were killed (Al-Sumaria News, November 24, 2019).

Al-Anbar Province

• On November 23, 2019, the Iraqi security forces captured a squad numbering 17 ISIS operatives about 5 km northwest of Al-Fallujah (Iraqi News Agency, November 23, 2019).
• On November 24, 2019, the Iraqi security forces took control of an ISIS hideout north of the Baiji-Hadith Road. They found two explosive belts, three sticky bombs and additional military equipment (Al-Sumaria News, November 24, 2019).

The Sinai Peninsula

• ISIS’s “routine” attacks in the northern Sinai Peninsula continued. Following are the main operations:
  • On November 19, 2019, an IED was activated against an Egyptian army armored vehicle near a checkpoint around 2 km southeast of Sheikh Zuweid. An officer and two soldiers were killed. Three other soldiers were wounded (Telegram, November 20, 2019).
  • On November 20, 2019, an IED was activated against an Egyptian army tank east of Bir al-Abd. The soldiers in the tank were killed or wounded (Telegram, November 21, 2019; Shahed Sinaa, November 22, 2019).
  • On November 21, 2019, two “spies” of the Egyptian Interior Ministry were executed east of Bir al-Abd (Telegram, November 21, 2019).
  • On November 22, 2019, “armed men” captured two people who had (allegedly) collaborated with the Egyptian army in east Bir al-Abd. The two men were interrogated and then executed (Shahed Sinaa, November 22, 2019).

Counterterrorism and preventive activity

ISIS-affiliated group responds to Telegram’s campaign to close ISIS-affiliated accounts

• Following a campaign this week on Telegram to close ISIS-affiliated accounts, a new ISIS-affiliated group issued a poster in English and Arabic, entitled “Hello, Telegram.” The Arabic version of the banner reads, “Your war [i.e., the war of intelligence agencies around the world] against Telegram [i.e., pressure on Telegram’s management to shut down channels and accounts used by ISIS’s media network] will make things difficult for you. This is because anyone who assisted [the Islamic State] yesterday will continue to spread the preaching [in the original: da’wa] today, without anyone knowing who he is [i.e., without anyone being able to find him]. You are betting on a complicated equation [from your perspective].” The English version reads: “Your campaign on Telegram will complicate the situation. The Ansar [i.e., supporters of the organization] will spread everywhere [a hint of activity on additional platforms]. The goal will become hidden [i.e., the organization’s operatives and supporters will be more confidential] and it [i.e., the propaganda] will spread the thought secretly” (Telegram, November 27, 2019).

• It should be noted that a few days after the accounts were shut down, ISIS’s operatives and supporters opened new groups and accounts, so that the organization’s media network continues to function without significant damage.

ISIS’s activity around the globe

Pledge of allegiance to ISIS’s new leader

•  An ISIS supporter recently published an infographic indicating the provinces where ISIS operatives pledged allegiance to ISIS’s new leader. At the bottom of the infographic it says: “O Muslims everywhere [around the world], make haste and pledge allegiance to the emir of the faithful and rally around him (Telegram, November 20, 2019). This may indicate the potential of pledges of allegiance in other countries, which ISIS wishes to realize.

Africa

Mali

• According to an announcement by ISIS’s West Africa Province, on November 18, 2019, its operatives ambushed a Mali army convoy in the Tabankort area, about 100 km north of the Mali-Niger border. Thirty soldiers were killed and 30 others were wounded. In addition, weapons, ammunition and military equipment were seized (Telegram, November 20, 2019). According to an announcement by the Mali army, during a joint operation carried out by forces from Mali and Niger near Tabankort, a patrol was attacked by “terrorist operatives.” According to the announcement, 24 soldiers were killed and 29 were wounded. In addition, 17 jihadist operatives were killed. One hundred suspects were detained by the Niger army.

Algeria

• According to a report by ISIS, on November 18, 2019, an Algerian army force was dropped from three helicopters, with the aim of capturing two ISIS operatives in the village of Tundarat in southern Algeria (near the border with Mali). ISIS operatives, who refused to surrender, exchanged fire with the army forces. A commander and seven soldiers were killed. The two ISIS operatives were also killed (Telegram, November 21, 2019). The Algerian army announced that it had killed two “terrorist operatives” (i.e., ISIS operatives) on November 18, 2019. In addition, weapons in their possession were seized (Algerian National Defense Ministry, November 18, 2019).

Afghanistan

On November 12, 2019, the Afghan security forces, with the support of the US and International Coalition forces, launched a large-scale operation to mop up the Nangarhar Province from the presence of ISIS operatives. The province, which is located in eastern Afghanistan, has become the center of their activity in the country. The operation included airstrikes and ground attacks and focused on the mountainous Achin region southeast of Jalalabad. As the operation progressed, ISIS operatives and their families surrendered en masse to the Afghan security forces. Up to now, over 600 ISIS operatives and several hundred women, children and family members have reportedly surrendered. Many of those who surrendered were foreign fighters who had come to Afghanistan in the past year to fight in the ranks of ISIS.

• On November 16, 2019, the Afghan Ministry of Defense announced that 18 ISIS operatives had turned themselves in to the Afghan forces in the Achin area, along with 24 women and 31 children. Previously, on November 13, 2019, at least 300 ISIS operatives, along with 51 women and 96 children, reportedly surrendered to the Afghan security forces in the Nangarhar Province. The operatives who turned themselves in included foreign fighters from various countries: Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Iran (operatives from Baluchistan) and Kurdistan. According to the Afghan minister of defense, the number of ISIS operatives and their families who turned themselves in over the past two weeks (i.e., even before the operation began) exceeds 615 (TOLO News; Anatolia News Agency; Khaama Press, November 16, 2019).
• On November 24, 2019, the Afghan Defense Ministry announced that a group of 22 ISIS operatives had surrendered to the Afghan forces in the Achin region and handed over their weapons (Khaama Press, November 24, 2019). In addition, 62 ISIS operatives, including 30 Pakistanis and two Turks, reportedly surrendered in the Achin region (Khaama Press, November 26, 2019). A group of 10 women and their children from the state of Kerala, in southwestern India, were among those who surrendered to the Afghan security forces. According to a government official in Kabul, the operatives who surrendered are being checked “one by one” and the results of the checks will be published upon completion of the process (Hindustan Times; Khaama Press, November 25, 2019).

    
Right: ISIS operatives who surrendered to the Afghan forces in the Nangarhar Province (Khaama Press, November 24, 2019). Left: ISIS operatives and their families who surrendered to the Afghan security forces (Khaama Press, November 25, 2019)

Results of the operation: initial assessment

The Nangarhar Province in Afghanistan (around 205,000 residents) is now the center of activity of ISIS’s Khorasan Province, and in recent months it has been operating at high intensity. Some ISIS operatives were foreign nationals who joined the Khorasan Province in 2019 and were transferred to Nangarhar. The targets of ISIS’s attacks were the Afghan security forces and Taliban operatives. The main modus operandi of ISIS’s activity was planting IEDs and mines, and eliminating figures affiliated with the Afghan government and the Taliban.

• The phenomenon of mass surrender by ISIS operatives is rare, but has occurred in the past. ISIS’s media outlets, as is their wont in embarrassing times, have not yet responded to the blow suffered by ISIS in Afghanistan. In the ITIC’s assessment, the rivalry between ISIS and the Taliban contributed to the success of the Afghan security forces, and possibly also the large number of foreign fighters and their families, who are not an integral part of Afghan society, unlike the Taliban (ISIS’s rivals), who are firmly rooted in the region. At the military level, in recent months, Taliban operatives have reportedly repelled ISIS operatives to the mountainous Achin region, around 50 km south of Jalalabad, thus reducing the freedom of movement and maneuverability of ISIS operatives in the Nangarhar area. The mass surrender of ISIS operatives was made possible when the Afghan security forces blocked the supply routes of ISIS operatives in Nangarhar during the operation. As a result, ISIS operatives and their families were left without food and were forced to surrender (Stars and Stripes, November 19, 2019).

The mountainous Achin region where ISIS operatives have been repelled
(Afghanistan Analysis Network, March 25, 2019)

• The Taliban leaders did not conceal their satisfaction with the blow suffered by ISIS in Nangarhar. They described ISIS’s defeat as a result of an extensive [Taliban] campaign that began in September 2019 (VOA, November 21, 2019). Experts believe that the defeat of ISIS operatives in the Nangarhar Province has strengthened the status of the Taliban in Afghanistan, especially in view of the bogged down negotiations between the Taliban and the US regarding the future of the country and the status of the Taliban there (One American News Network, November 17, 2019).

According to US government officials, following “months of battles” culminating in the mass surrender of ISIS fighters over the past two weeks, ISIS’s Khorasan Province has effectively collapsed. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani even said in a speech in Jalalabad on November 19, 2019, that “we have erased the [local] ISIS [province]” (VOA, November 21, 2019). In the ITIC’s assessment, it is still too early to celebrate the elimination of ISIS’s Khorasan Province. This is because the organization has already demonstrated its ability to rehabilitate itself even after the severe blows that it suffered (in Syria and Iraq for example) and to resume its activity after a period of rehabilitation and reconstruction while learning lessons and changing its patterns of operation.

East Asia

Indonesia

The Philippines

• ISIS operatives fired at Philippine soldiers in the northern part of Jolo Island, in the southern Philippines. Seven soldiers were killed (Telegram, November 23, 2019).

^[1] A Shiite militia operating as part of the Popular Mobilization. It belongs to the Sadri faction, led by Muqtada Sadr.

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