Tag Archives: Iran

Spotlight on Iran

December 6 – 20, 2015 Editor: Dr. Raz Zimmt
Ebadollah Abdollahi, commander of the IRGC's construction headquarters Khatam al-Anbiya (Tasnim News, December 14, 2015).

Ebadollah Abdollahi, commander of the IRGC's construction headquarters Khatam al-Anbiya (Tasnim News, December 14, 2015).

Colonel Sattar Mahmoudi, killed in Syria (Twitter,  December 9, 2015)

Colonel Sattar Mahmoudi, killed in Syria (Twitter, December 9, 2015)

Hossein Fadaei, a senior commander in the Fatemiyoun Brigade, killed in Syria

Hossein Fadaei, a senior commander in the Fatemiyoun Brigade, killed in Syria

Brigadier General Qolam-Hossein Qeibparvar (KAZEROONKHABAR.IR, December 12, 2015)

Brigadier General Qolam-Hossein Qeibparvar (KAZEROONKHABAR.IR, December 12, 2015)

Mohammad-Ali Jafari, commander of the IRGC (Tasnim News, December 9, 2015)

Mohammad-Ali Jafari, commander of the IRGC (Tasnim News, December 9, 2015)

Ismail Haniya, deputy head of Hamas' political bureau (Rajan News, December 9, 2015)

Ismail Haniya, deputy head of Hamas' political bureau (Rajan News, December 9, 2015)

Sheikh Ibraheem Zakzaky in Tehran in August 2015

Sheikh Ibraheem Zakzaky in Tehran in August 2015


Overview1
  • At least 20 Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fighters were killed in Syria during the past two weeks, including two with the rank of colonel. A commander of the Fatemiyoun Brigade (composed of Afghans fighting under IRGC command) was also killed.
  • Iran denied Western media reports that it had begun withdrawing its forces from Syria in the wake of the heavy losses suffered since the ground offensive in Syria began at the beginning of October 2015.
  • The commander of the IRGC appointed Qolam-Hossein Qeibparvar to command the Imam Hossein Headquarters. Qeibparvar replaces Hossein Hamedani, killed in Syria in October. The headquarters apparently coordinate Iranian fighting in Syria.
  • Ismail Haniya, deputy head of Hamas' political bureau, sent a video-taped message to the leaders of Iran requesting support for the Palestinians' "third intifada." In addition, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with a Hamas representative in Tehran and told him that Iran's position on the Palestinian issue had not changed.
  • Iran harshly criticized the bloody attack of the Nigerian army against a group of Shi'ites in northern Nigeria, during which the Iranian-affiliated Shi'ite Islamic Movement head, Sheikh Ibrahim Zakzaky, was arrested and injured.

 

Statements from Senior Iranian Officials about Iran's Regional Involvement
  • Ebadollah Abdollahi, commander of the IRGC's construction headquarters Khatam al-Anbiya, told a press conference that the headquarters had informed senior Iranian officials it was prepared to begin operations in Syria, if conditions permitted. He said the headquarters was already active in water purification and the construction of a gas pipeline in Iraq, and was preparing to build a railway that would connect southern Iran with Karbala in Iraq, facilitating the movement of Iranian pilgrims to the Iraqi sites sacred to Shi'a (Tasnim News, December 14, 2015).
Iranian Intervention in Syria
  • At least 20 IRGC fighters were killed in Syria during the past two weeks, two of them with the rank of colonel. One of them, Colonel Sattar Mahmoudi, commanded aerial defense at the naval base at Bushehr. He was apparently killed in the region of Latakia.
  • Also killed was Hossein Fadaei, a senior commander in the Fatemiyoun Brigade, composed of Afghans fighting under IRGC command.
  • Iran denied last week's Western media reports that it had begun withdrawing its military forces from Syria in the wake of heavy losses suffered in the ground offensive that began at the beginning of October 2015. Hossein Amir Abdollahian, deputy foreign minister for Arab-African affairs, said that Iran's "military advisors" continued supporting the Syrian regime in its war on terrorism (Fars News, December 14, 2015). Hojjat-ul-Islam Abdollah Haji Sadeghi, the IRGC's deputy representative of the Iranian supreme leader, also denied reports Iran was decreasing the number of IRGC forces in Syria, claiming Iran and the IRGC would continue "advising" the Syrian regime (Tasnim News, December 15, 2015).
  • The Iranian media claimed the reports that the IRGC was withdrawing its forces from Syria were "lies" and part of the West's psychological warfare against Iran which also included reports that Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force, had been wounded in Syria.
  • In all probability, even if Iran does withdraw some of its forces from Syria, it will involve no more than a few hundred fighters. It may also be a tactical withdrawal, part of the routine replacement of fighting forces. In any event, there is no proof that the IRGC's heavy losses in Syria have made Tehran rethink its military involvement in Syria or its commitment to Bashar Assad's regime.
  • Mohammad-Ali Jafari, commander of the IRGC, appointed Qolam-Hossein Qeibparvar to command the Imam Hossein Headquarters. Qeibparvar replaces Hossein Hamedani, who was killed in Syria in October. Qeibparvar formerly commanded the IRGC's Fajr Unit (Fars News, December 9j, 2015). The Imam Hossein Headquarters are responsible for the operations of the Imam Hossein Battalions, the elite fighting units of the IRGC's Basij force, which play a major role in the fighting in Syria. According to a number of reports, the headquarters are responsible for coordinating Iranian fighting in Syria.
  • Mohammad-Ali Jafari, commander of the IRGC, said of the continuing fighting in Syria that the fate of the world and the future of Islam would be decided in the confrontations and wars in Western Asia. Speaking at a meeting of the families of IRGC fighters from Khuzestan Province killed in Syria, he said that today IRGC fighters were defending their country from a distance of several thousand kilometers from its borders. He added that the United States no longer had the capability to directly confront the Muslim countries (Tasnim News, December 9, 2015).
  • Iranian news websites reported that Syrian President Bashar Assad was expected to arrive in Tehran for a visit on January 10, 2016. According to the reports, he would meet with senior Iranians to discuss the international talks on Syria's future and the plan to hold elections in Syria (Alef, December 14, 2015).
  • Ali-Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to the supreme leader for international affairs, after meeting with Ali Hassan Khalil, Lebanese minister of finance, told a press conference that Iran, Lebanon and Syria were united in defending the Syrian people and Bashar Assad. He said he hoped that in the near future the Syrian government would reestablish its legal rule over the country and preserve its territorial integrity (Mehr News Agency, December 8, 2015).
  • Iran criticized the conference held by the Syrian opposition in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Hossein Amir Abdollahian, deputy foreign minister for Arab-African affairs, condemned the conference, saying it violated the declaration made at the international talks held in Vienna about Syria's future. Worse, he said, was that several terrorist groups affiliated ISIS had participated. He said the world would not allow "terrorists" to represent themselves as moderate opposition and decide the future of Syria and the region (Fars News, December 10, 2015). On another occasion, Abdollahian denied Russia and Iran were at odds regarding Syria. Interviewed by the IRNA news agency, he said the two countries were supporting the Syrian army in its struggle against terrorism (IRNA, December 13, 2015).
Iranian Intervention in Iraq
  • Hassan Danaeifar, Iranian ambassador to Iraq, said the joint Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi-Russian committee established to share intelligence would, in the near future, become a coalition of the four countries. He also referred to Iran's position on reform plan proposed by Iraqi President Hayder el-Abadi, saying that Iran supported reforms in Iraq and was ready to give the Iraqi government the benefit of its experience. In addition, he said that Iran opposed any plan which would divide Iraq (Mehr News Agency, December 13, 2015).
Iranian Intervention in the Palestinian Arena
  • Ismail Haniya, deputy head of Hamas' political bureau, sent a video-taped message asking Iran to support Hamas against Israel. The video was posted to Iranian news websites. Haniya asked the leaders and citizens of Iran to help the Palestinians wage the "third intifada." He said he was aware of the special status Jerusalem and Palestine had for the people and leaders of Iran. He therefore called on them, and on all Arabs and Muslims, to send strategic support for the intifada so the Palestinian could continue it and achieve their goals of defending Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa mosque and liberating Palestine (Raja News, December 9, 2015).
  • The video was made as the political crisis between Iran and Hamas continues unabated, the result of Hamas' siding with the Sunni camp led by Saudi Arabia over the Syrian civil war and the Saudi attacks in Yemen.
  • As to relations between Iran and Hamas, senior Hamas figure Ahmad Yousef told the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi that since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war Iran's support for Hamas had been limited to military matters. Yousef, who was quoted by the Iranian media, said Iran continued its military support for the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades [Hamas' military-terrorist wing], but the differences of opinion between Iran and Hamas regarding Syria prevented the normalization of relations (Entekhab, December 15, 2015).
  • Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister, said that Iran's position on the Palestinian issue had not changed. Meeting with Khalid al-Qoddoumi, Hamas' representative in Iran, Zarif said that Iran's position on the Palestinian issue had not changed since the Islamic Revolution and that it was an ideological position, not a political one. Al-Qoddoumi updated Zarif on the situation in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and Jerusalem, and stressed the need to expand relations between Hamas and Iran. The Fars news agency reported that al-Qoddoumi and Zarif had agreed on a joint framework for continuing Iranian support for the Palestinians (Fars News, December 7, 2015).
Iranian Intervention in Yemen
  • Iran repeated its calls for an end to "Saudi aggression" in Yemen. Hossein Amir Abdollahian, deputy foreign minister for Arab-African affairs, held a telephone conversation with Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, the UN secretary general's representative for Yemeni affairs. Abdollahian called for an end to the Saudi aerial attacks in Yemen and stressed Iran's support for the reconciliation talks between the various Yemeni factions (Fars News, December 10, 2015).
Iran's Responses to the Military Attack on the Shi'ites in Northern Nigeria
  • Iran strongly condemned the bloody attack carried out by the Nigerian army against a group of Shi'ites in the city of Zaria in northern Nigeria, during which several hundred people were killed and wounded. Among those killed was Sheikh Mahmoud Mohammad Touri, deputy of the leader of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria, Sheikh Ibraheem Zakzaky. Sheikh Zakzaky was arrested by the Nigerian army and wounded during the raid on his house.
  • Hossein Jaber Ansari, spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, criticized the attack and called on the Nigerian authorities to respect the country's various religious groups. Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian Foreign Minister, also called on the Nigerian government to take immediate steps to end the violence and protect the lives of Nigeria's Muslims. Speaking on the phone to the Nigerian Foreign Minister, Zarif said Iran was worried by the "tragic slaughter of Shi'ite Muslims" in Zaria (Mehr News Agency, December 14, 2015).
  • Hossein Amir Abdollahian, deputy Foreign Minister, said of the incident in Zaria that the fate of Sheikh Zakzaky was extremely important to Iran and the Muslim world and required clarification and assurances of his health and wellbeing. He said the Iran had very good relations with Nigeria and was using the good atmosphere between them to inform Nigeria that Iran held it was responsible for the attack in the northern part of the country (Fars News, December 14, 2015). On December 14, 2015, the Nigerian attaché was summoned to the Iranian foreign ministry to clarify the situation. Senior Iranian clerics also strongly criticized the attack and called on the Nigerian authorities to release Sheikh Zakzaky immediately. On December 15, 2015, Iranian civilians held a protest demonstration in front of the Nigerian embassy in Tehran (IRNA, December 15, 2015).
  • For years Iran has had ties to Zakzaky's Shi'ite Islamic Movement in Nigeria. This past August Zakzaky participated in a conference held in Mashhad in Iran, during which he expressed support for Iran, calling it a role model and symbol of the struggle against tyranny and the West.
  • On October a, 2015 Daoud Amran, secretary general of the Islamic Association of Nigeria, told the London-based newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat that Iran was training 3,000 Nigerian Shi'ites for fighting in Syria. He said the training was overseen by the Iranian embassy in Abuja and the Iranian consulate in Lagos, part of the Islamic Republic's increasing efforts to deepen its influence among the Shi'ites in Nigeria. He warned of an increase in Iranian activity in Nigeria, and claimed Iran was transferring money through Nigerian charitable funds with the support of Sheikh Ibraheem Zakzaky.

[1]Spotlight on Iran is an Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center bulletin illuminating Iran's activities to establish its influence in the Middle East and beyond. It is based on reports in the Iranian media and written for the ITIC by Dr. Raz Zimmt, an expert on Iran's politics, society, foreign policy and social networks.

Spotlight on Global Jihad (December 3-9, 2015)

Spotlight on Global Jihad

Spotlight on Global Jihad

Rocket launched by ISIS at rebel organizations in the town of Baraghedeh

Rocket launched by ISIS at rebel organizations in the town of Baraghedeh

Firing at Iraqi Army positions (Hadem al-Aswar, December 6, 2015)

Firing at Iraqi Army positions (Hadem al-Aswar, December 6, 2015)

Egyptian soldier near the machinegun position falling after being shot by an ISIS sniper (justpaste.it, December 5, 2015)

Egyptian soldier near the machinegun position falling after being shot by an ISIS sniper (justpaste.it, December 5, 2015)

Wreckage of the car bomb activated against the governor of Aden

Wreckage of the car bomb activated against the governor of Aden

Children killing Syrian Army prisoners (alaswar.ml, December 5, 2015)

Children killing Syrian Army prisoners (alaswar.ml, December 5, 2015)


Main events of the week

  • This week as well, ISIS in Iraq and Syria continued to withstand intensive airstrikes by the US and Russia, which were joined by Britain as well. The target of these attacks was ISIS’s oil infrastructure in northern Syria, in order to harm its principal source of income. The Russian airstrikes were accompanied by a media campaign accusing Turkey of trading in oil with ISIS. Iran also joined the anti-Turkish campaign. In response, Erdoğan announced that he would resign from office if the allegations that Turkey was buying oil from ISIS were proved.
  • This week, there were no significant changes in the various combat zones in Iraq and Syria. Worthy of note are the ongoing Iraqi military pressure on ISIS in the city of Ramadi and its environs; power struggles between ISIS and the rebel organizations near the Turkish border north of Aleppo; and the continuing power struggles, which include mutual assassinations, in the southern Syrian Golan Heights between the ISIS-affiliated Al-Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade and rebel organizations, including the Al-Nusra Front.
  • In San Bernardino, in the western US, a lethal attack (14 dead, 17 wounded) was carried out by a couple of Pakistani descent. In London, a stabbing attack was carried out on a train in an Underground station by a young man who called out, “This is for Syria.” ISIS announced that the couple who carried out the attack in San Bernardino were among its supporters, but did not claim responsibility for the attack. In the ITIC’s assessment, both attacks were inspired by ISIS, like others that have already been carried out in the West, but were not carried out under its direction.

 

The international campaign against ISIS

US and coalition airstrikes
  • This week, the US and coalition forces continued their airstrikes against ISIS targets. During the week, a few dozen airstrikes were carried out by means of fighter planes, attack aircraft, and UAVs. Following are the main airstrikes (US Department of Defense website):
  • Syria– the airstrikes were concentrated in the areas of Marea (north of Aleppo), Ain Issa (northwest of Al-Raqqah), Deir al-Zor and Al-Raqqah. The targets included vehicles, buildings, operatives and oil fields, among other things.
  • Iraq– the airstrikes were concentrated in the areas of Albu Hayat (south of Haditha), Abu Kamal, Mosul, Ramadi, Sinjar, Sultan Abdullah (south of Mosul), Habbaniyah and Kisik. The targets included operatives, battle positions, artillery positions and vehicles, among other things.
  • According to an announcement by the US-led coalition forces, on December 3, 2015, they carried out 26 airstrikes, harming ISIS’s oil production capability in Syria (Daily Star, December 4, 2015). In addition, at least 32 ISIS operatives were reportedly killed and around 40 injured in a series of airstrikes carried out by coalition forces on December 5, 2015, in the area of Al-Raqqah (Al-Arabiya TV, December 6, 2015).
US campaign against ISIS
  • US President Barack Obama said in a speech to the nation that the US was working with its allies to curb ISIS’s activity and that since the terrorist attack in Paris, the intelligence cooperation with its European allies has increased. He added that the US was working with Turkey on the closure of the border with Syria. He also said that the United States was cooperating with Muslim countries and with Muslim communities in the United States in order to fight the extremist ideology promoted by ISIS via the Internet (White House website, December 6, 2015).
  • US Secretary of State John Kerry said that after discussions with Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan, it was decided to close the border strip that had remained open between Syria and Turkey. This was in order to prevent illegal passage of oil and foreign fighters (Al-Jazeera TV, December 2, 2015).
  • In the past, the United States and Turkey also announced the closure of the Turkish-Syrian border. Turkey has indeed taken some steps on the ground, which have so far proved to be ineffective. Now we must wait and see whether the decision announced by Kerry is implementedin practice.

 

Britain joins in the airstrikes against ISIS in Syria
  • On December 2, 2015, by a majority of 390 to 211, the House of Commons approved a plan to expand the RAF airstrikes against ISIS in Syria.Several hours later, British fighter planes began attacking ISIS targets in Syria (The Guardian, December 3, 2015). Britain’s Defence Minister Michael Fallon confirmed that four British fighter planes based in Cyprus had carried out successful airstrikes on the Al-Omar oil field in Syria (BBC News, December 3, 2015). According to Fallon, Britain would be involved in operations against ISIS targets in Syria for a prolonged period (The Guardian, December 5, 2015).
The Al-Omar oil field, located southeast of Deir al-Zor,is considered the largest oil field in Syria. The field was held by Al-Nusra Front operatives since November 2013 and taken over by ISIS operatives in early July 2014 (aawsat.com, December 6, 2015). The airstrike, carried out by British aircraft against facilities in the Al-Omar oil field is part of an overall effort by Russia and the US-led coalition to harm ISIS’s principal source of income.

 

Germany joins the military campaign against ISIS
  • On December 4, 2015, the lower house of the Bundestag approved the government’s plan to send German Army troops to join the military campaign against ISIS in Syria. It approved the operation of six reconnaissance aircraft and a frigate, which will help protect the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, which is off the coast of Syria. It also approved sending a tanker aircraft and 1,200 troops.However, the decision does not permit the German Air Force to attack ISIS targets on Syrian territory (christiantoday.com, December 6, 2015).

Russian involvement in the civil war in Syria

  • This week as well, Russia’s intensive air operations against targets in northern Syria continued. The Russian airstrikes were concentrated in the areas of Al-Hasakah, Latakia, Hama, Idlib and Homs. In this context, Russian aircraft attacked fuel tanks in the Aleppo province (Al-Durar al-Shamiya, December 4, 2015). According to the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, as part of its air campaign in Syria, Russia hit dozens of oil production and refining sites, as well as 1,000 ISIS tankers.According to the spokesman, this has reduced ISIS’s revenues by approximately 50% (Fox News, December 4, 2015). According to reports by Russian sources, since Russia joined in the fighting in Syria, Russian forces have carried out over 2,300 sorties above Syria, hitting over 4,100 terrorist targets (RT, December 5, 2015).
  • In view ofthe tension between Russia and Turkey following the interception of the Russian aircraft, Russia has accused Turkey in general, and Turkey’s President Erdoğan and his family in particular, of trading in oil with ISIS. The Iranians have also joined the media campaign against Turkey. For example, according to Mohsen Rezaee, Secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council, Iran has proof of deals for the transfer of oil from ISIS to Turkey. According to him, if the Turkish government is unaware of the matter, Iran is prepared to furnish it with all the information, since the Iranian advisers in Syria photograph all the routes used by ISIS’s oil tankers on their way to Turkey (Fars, December 4, 2015).
  • In response,Erdoğan announced that he would resign from office if the allegations that Turkey buys oil from ISIS turn out to be true, and that no country has the right to insult Turkey by accusing it of buying oil from ISIS.
  • Senior Russian officials and the Russian Defense Ministrytook part in the campaign accusing Turkey of trading in oil with ISIS:
  • The Russian Defense Minister wrote on his Facebook page that photos taken by American drones show trucks loaded with oil crossing the border into Turkey from an area in Syria controlled by ISIS. According to him, these photographs prove that ISIS is smuggling oil to Turkey for Tayyip Erdoğan and his family[1] (ibtimes.com, December 5, 2015). According to the Minister, at least three routes are used for smuggling oil from Syria to Turkey: the western smuggling route leading to a port in the Mediterranean; the northern smuggling route leading to the Batman refinery (located about 100 km from the border with Syria); andthe eastern smuggling route leading to a large transit base in the city of Cizre, Turkey.  He said that the illegal smuggling of oil to Turkey amounted to 8,500 oil trucks carrying 200,000 barrels of oil a day (RT, December 3, 2015).
  • According to Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov, Turkey is ISIS’s biggest oil customer. He also accused Erdoğan and his family of involvement in distributing the oil produced in areas controlled by ISIS. According to him, the oil is carried to Turkey by thousands of tankers (Cumhuriyet, December 2, 2015). In light of these accusations, Russia’s ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin announced that Russia was formulating a draft resolution at the UN Security Council that would step up the enforcement of the Council’s Resolution 2199 from 2015, which aims to prevent illegal trading in oil with terrorist groups (RT, December 1, 2015). 
  • A video on YouTube posted by the Russian Defense Ministry shows trucks crossing the border from Syria to Turkey through one of the border crossings. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, these trucks are involved in illegal oil trading between ISIS and Turkey (YouTube, December 2, 2015).

Main developments in Syria

Overview
  • In northwest Syria, clashes continued in the areas of Aleppo and Homs, without significant changes in the situation on the ground. In addition, there were clashes this week between ISIS and other rebel organizations north of Aleppo, near the Turkish border.ISIS, the Al-Nusra Front and the other rebel organizations are apparently trying to establish their presence near the Turkish border. It was done in order to allow the continued existence of their controlled logistics channels of communication between Syria and Turkey. This is in light of reports about Turkey’s intention to establish an ISIS-free buffer zone in northern Syria, with the support of the United States.
Clashes between rebel organizations near the Syrian-Turkish border
  • There were clashes this week between ISIS and the rebel organizations that oppose it, particularly the Al-Nusra Front, in the area north of Aleppo, near the Syrian-Turkish border. These clashes centered on the town of Baraghedeh, about 4 km south of the border with Turkey. On December 3, 2015, ISIS reported that his operatives had captured the town from the hands of the rebel organizations. Shortly thereafter, the rebel organizations announced that the Free Syrian Army and other groups had regained control of the town. According to reports by the rebel organizations, more than 10 ISIS operatives were killed there (all4syria.info, December 3, 2015).
  • This week as well, local clashes continued between the Syrian Army and ISIS in the area of the Kuweyres military airbase, east of Aleppo. According to a report from December 6, 2015, the Syrian Army attacked an ISIS post near a power plant located about 11 km west of the airbase. In addition, clashes continued along several routes leading to the airfield (syriahr.com, December 6, 2015).
Homs province
  • This week, clashes continued southeast of Homs.ISIS operatives are reportedly halting the advance of the Syrian Army by carrying out suicide bombing attacks, causing heavy losses.This week, two ISIS suicide bombers carried out lethal terrorist attacks against the Syrian Army: the first near the town of Mheen, 17 km west of the city of Al-Qaryatayn, and the second in Tilal al-Rumailah, about 4 km northeast of Al-Qaryatayn (a3maqagency.wordpress.com, December 3, 2015). ISIS announced that its operatives had killed over 85 Syrian Army soldiers near the city of Al-Qaryatayn. The dead reportedly included a Syrian officer with the rank of aqid (colonel) and three other officers (all4syria.info, December 3, 2015).
The Southern Syrian Golan Heights
  • According to a report from this week, Al-Nusra Front Emir (leader) Abu Jalibib was killed (or injured) in the area of Daraa. This was done by an IED planted by Al-Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade operatives near the village of Kahil (Khatwa, December 3, 2015). If this information is confirmed, then this was the Al-Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade’s response for the elimination of its senior commanders by the Al-Nusra Front and other rebel organizations, as part of power struggle in the southern Syrian Golan Heights.

Main developments in Iraq

Overview

The Iraqi Army continued its efforts to establish its control around the city of Ramadi, which it is trying to recapture from ISIS. According to an unverified report, this week the Iraqi Army managed, for the first time, to take over several residential neighborhoods in the city itself. ISIS, in turn, is trying to harm the Iraqi Army forces surrounding the city through suicide bombing attacks.

 

The city of Baghdad and its environs
  • In the city of Baghdad, the number of attacks carried out by ISIS has decreased recently, although they have not ceased altogether. On December 4, 2015, an IED exploded in the west of the city, killing one civilian and wounding seven others (Baghdad Times, December 4, 2015). The relative improvement in the security situation in Baghdad followed the security measures taken by the Iraqi government after a wave of attacks carried out by ISIS.
Al-Anbar province
  • This week as well, fighting continued in the Al-Anbar province, particularly in the city of Ramadi and its environs. The Iraqi Army continues to tighten the siege of the city by taking over large areas around it and blocking ISIS’s supply routes to the city. The Iraqi Army announced that on December 4, 2015, it had killed 30 ISIS operatives north of the city of Ramadi during an attempt by ISIS operatives to break the siege on the city (Baghdad Times, December 4, 2015).
  • According to a report from December 6, 2015, the Iraqi Army managed to take over several areas in the city of Ramadi itself, including the Tahrir and Al-Qadisiyyah areas in the Al-Tamim neighborhood (Sky News in Arabic, December 6, 2015). If this report is confirmed, then this represents an achievement for the Iraqi Army, which has so far operated only on the outskirts of the city and its surroundings but refrained from entering it.
  • ISIS, in turn,is trying to harm the Iraqi Army forces through suicide bombing attacks.On December 5, 2015, ISIS claimed responsibility for a series of five suicide bombing attacks against the Iraqi Army west of the city of Ramadi. The suicide bombers were four Syrian terrorists and one Tajik terrorist. The five blew themselves up, one after another, inside car bombs (Akhbar al-Muslimeen, December 5, 2015).
Samarra
  • Fighting continues in the region of the city of Samarra. The Iraqi Army has tightened its security measures around the city for fear of attacks by ISIS. In the eastern Salah al-Din province, the Iraqi Army took steps to disconnect ISIS’s supply lines to the province (Al-Arabi al-Jadeed, December 4, 2015). On December 6, 2015, an ISIS-affiliated website posted photos of the fighting in western Samarra (Hadem al-Aswar, December 6, 2015).

Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula

  • During the week, the Egyptian security forces continued military operations against ISIS’s Sinai branch. In this context, they carried out intensive activity, mainly in the area of Rafah, Sheikh Zuweid and Al-Arish.Dozens of jihadists were killed in the operation, dozens of suspects were detained, weapons were confiscated and many IEDs were neutralized.
  • The Egyptian security forces received information about an attempt to smuggle a large quantity of weapons, including rockets. The smuggling was carried out using two trucks belonging to ISIS operatives in southern Rafah. The Egyptian security forces attacked the two trucks from the air with helicopters, completely destroying them (Al-Watan, December 6, 2015).
  • The Egyptian Armed Forces published an infographic summarizing the Border Police activity in November 2015. According to the infographic, during the month, 478 different weapons were confiscated, including rifles, pistols, mortars and explosives, and 610 people of various nationalities were detained. These detentions were carried out in both the Sinai Peninsula and on the border between Egypt and Libya. In addition, 20 tunnels in the Rafah area were destroyed (the Facebook page of the Egyptian Armed Forces Spokesman, December 7, 2015).
  • Despite these figures, ISIS continued its ongoing attacks against the Egyptian security forces:
  • On December 5, 2015, an IED exploded near an APC of the Egyptian security forces in the area of Al-Ahrash (north of Rafah), destroying the APC. The blast reportedly killed an officer with the rank of major and a soldier and wounded three others (Twitter, December 5, 2015).
  • On December 5, 2015, an IED was detonated at a police APC south of Al-Arish (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS’s Sinai province, December 5, 2015).
  • On December 5, 2015, an ISIS-affiliated operative posted a photo showing an Egyptian soldier being shot by an ISIS sniper near a machinegun position in Al-Ujrah, south of Rafah (Twitter; justpaste.it, December 5, 2015).
  • On December 6, 2015, a man was killed and a few others were wounded when an IED planted on the coastal road in Al-Arish exploded (Al-Masri al-Youm, December 7, 2015).

Palestinians and Israeli Arabs

Squad of ISIS supporters uncovered in Israel
  • In the wake of activity by the Israeli security forces, in October – November 2015, five young men in their twenties, residents of Nazareth, were detained. The five were detained after the Israeli security forces received information that they had held meetings and were being trained on the use of firearms.
  • Their interrogation revealed that during the past year, they had undergone a process of religious radicalization, in which they had expressed support for ISIS. The five would meet in secret and watch videos related to ISIS and speeches by religious leaders affiliated with it. They would also discuss the need to carry out a jihad against the infidels. At the same time, they worked to obtain weapons and also practiced shooting on various occasions near Nazareth. At least one of the squad operatives expressed his desire to go to Iraq and Syria to fight in the ranks of ISIS, as well as his desire to carry out an attack “against the Jews” (Israel Security Agency, Ynet, December 8, 2015).
  • ISIS’s activity is prohibited in Israel: on September 3, 2014, the Minister of Defense declared ISIS an unlawful association. On October 25, 2015, the Israeli government declared ISIS an illegal organization.

The global jihad in other countries

Libya
The Derna region
  • The death of Abu Nabil al-Anbari constitutes a blow to ISIS’s top command in Libya, and might add to its difficulties in the city of Derna and in eastern Libya in general. However, in the ITIC’s assessment, it will not significantly impair ISIS’s military and governmental capabilities in Sirte and in western Libya in general, where ISIS continues to establish itself after it lost its strength in the east.

 

  • Pentagon Spokesman Peter Cook confirmed that one of ISIS’s leaders in Libya was killed in a US airstrike last month. He was Abu Nabil, who was killed in the city of Derna. According to Peter Cook, this was the first attack carried out by the United States against ISIS leaders in Libya.
  • The ISIS operative who was killed in the targeted killing was Abu Nabil al-Anbari, an ISIS operative from Iraq. He was a close friend of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and previously served as governor of the Salah al-Din province in Iraq. Abu Nabil was sent to Libya by ISIS’s leadership and was one of its top commanders there. Abu Nabil is suspected of being the operative shown in the ISIS video that documented the executions of 21 Egyptian Copts on the beach in Libya (The Daily Mail, December 7, 2015).
  • In the meantime, ISIS operatives continue to hold the area of Al-Fataeh, dominating the city of Derna. In this area, they are facing pressure from a local jihadi group affiliated with Al-Qaeda and from the Libyan Army which supports the Tobruk government. This week, ISIS published photos showing its operatives engaged in military activity around the city of Derna, probably in Al-Fataeh (Akhbar al-Muslimeen, December 6, 2015).
  • An ISIS leader in Derna, Murad al-Hasi, known by his codename Murad al-Saba, was executed by operatives of the Shura Council of the Jihad Fighters in Derna, which is affiliatedwith Al-Qaeda. Al-Saba was arrested by operatives of the organization in October 2015 (Al-Wasat portal, December 3, 2015). This is another step in the consolidation of Al-Qaeda’s branch in Derna and the removal of the remains of ISIS’s control of the city.
Sirte
  • According to a senior officer in the Libyan Army that supports the Tobruk government, ISIS operatives in Sirte are undergoing flight training with flight simulators. The training is taking place in Sirte using an advanced flight simulator for civil aircraft, obtained by ISIS in October 2015 from outside Libya. According to him, retired officers from Libya and the neighboring countries are supervising the training. An additional simulator for fighter planes may also have reached Sirte.
  • A senior security source from an institute which monitors ISIS’s activity in North Africa confirmed that it is known that ISIS operatives in Libya undergo training in flying civil aircraft. He added that last month, Libyan Air Force planes tried to destroy at least one training site, without success. According to him, due to the airstrikes, the training center was moved to a new site near Sirte airport (about 20 km south of the city). In the past, there were reportedly at least five aircraft at the airport, including two civil aircraft and three helicopters, which had been put out of commission in battles there in early 2015 (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, December 1, 2015).
  • In the meantime, ISIS continues to establish its control in Sirte, recruiting youths into its ranks (as is customary in Iraq and Libya). According to a report from late November, the graduation ceremony of the first Lion Cubs of the Caliphate course was held in Sirte. The participants were 85 boys aged 14-17. In the 45-day course, the boys underwent target practice with a variety of weapons and learned how to manufacture IEDs. The boys come from Sirte, Nofaliya, Ajdabiya, Bani Walid and Misrata(Bawabat Ifriqya al-Ikhbariya, November 30, 2015; Al-Wasat portal, December 4, 2015).

ISIS’s terrorist activity

ISIS-inspired terrorist attack in the United States
  • On December 3, 2015, a lethal attack took place at a welfare center and rehab institute for the disabled in San Bernardino, California (east of Los Angeles).In total, 14 people were killed and 17 were injured. A man and a woman broke into a conference hall, opened fire indiscriminately at the crowd, and fled the scene. They left several pipe bombs in the building. Four hours later they were apprehended and shot during a gunfight with the police. A large quantity of weapons was found in their house.
  • The man who committed the murder was Syed Rizwan Farook, 28, a native-born American of Pakistani origin. He served as an environment and food supervisor at the San Bernardino department of health. The father of the terrorist said that his son had supported the ideology of ISIS and was “obsessive” about his attitude to Israel (CNN, December 6, 2015). His wife, who participated in the attack, was Tashfeen Malik, 27, a Pakistani by birth who had moved to Saudi Arabia and came to the US after they married.
  • The initial FBI investigation linked the two to radical Islam.Syed Farook was a devout Muslim who apparently underwent a process of radicalization and maintained contact with Islamists over the Internet. He visited Saudi Arabia, where he met his wife and returned with her to the United States. The day before the massacre, his wife posted a message on her Facebook page, pledging allegiance to the leader of ISIS. Both of them destroyed the hard drives in their home and their mobile phones before leaving to carry out the attack.
  • According to a report from December 4, 2015, on the website of ISIS’s Aamaq media foundation, they were ISIS supporters(a3maqagency.wordpress.com, December 4, 2015). On December 5, 2015, ISIS’s Al-Bayan radio station aired an announcement about the attack “carried out by two supporters of the Islamic State a few days ago in California.” The announcement said: “The two, who attacked a center in the city of San Bernardino, California, USA, carried out a shooting that led to the deaths of fourteen people and the wounding of more than twenty others, Praise Allah” (arabic.cnn, December 5, 2015). However, ISIS did not issue an official statement claiming formal responsibility for the attack.
ISIS-inspired stabbing attack in Britain
  • On December 5, 2015, a passenger at the Leytonstone Underground station in east London was attacked by a young man.The attacker cut his throat with a knife while shouting “This is for Syria” and “Blood will be spilled here.” He threatened to attack other passengers. Police, who were on the platform, arrested the attacker. The passenger was taken to the hospital in serious condition. Another passenger suffered minor injuries.
  • The stabber is Muhaydin Mire, a 29-year-old resident of east London. According to the investigators, his mobile phone contained photos related to ISIS and attacks that it has carried out (CNBC News; New York Daily News, December 7, 2015).
Yemen
  • Aden Governor Ja’far Muhammad Sa’ad and six of his escorts were killed on December 6, 2015, in an explosion carried out in the city. The explosion took place while he was driving to his office along with his bodyguards in a convoy of cars. According to one version, the explosion occurred in a parked car that exploded on the route of the governor’s convoy. According to a second version, the assassination was carried out by a suicide bomber who collided with the governor’s car. Aden Governor Ja’far Sa’ad was a general in the South Yemen Army and was appointed governor last October (alarabiya.net, December 7, 2015; The Guardian, December 6, 2015). 
  • The Aden-Abyan province of the Islamic State, which operates in Yemen, has claimed responsibility for killing the governor with a car bomb.On December 6, 2015, an ISIS-affiliated website posted photos from the Aden-Abyan province showing the ISIS car bomb explosion that killed the governor (dabiqnews.com, December 6, 2015).

Counterterrorism and preventive activity

Thailand
  • According to a document leaked by the Russian security services, 10 ISIS-affiliated Syrians went to Thailand in October 2015 with the aim of carrying out terrorist attacks there against Russian targets. The document calls on the Thai police and Special Forces arm to increase security around the areas where Russian institutions are located (The Guardian, December 4, 2015).

The battle for hearts and minds

Summary of suicide bombing attacks carried out by ISIS in November 2015
  • On December 2, 2015, an ISIS-affiliated website posted an infographic claiming that in November 2015, ISIS had carried out 54 suicide bombing attacks, as follows: 28 attacks against the forces of the Iraqi regime, 13 against the forces of the Syrian regime, 11 against Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG), and three suicide bombing attacks against Kurdish Peshmerga (a total of 55 attacks, i.e., one was added by mistake).The distribution of suicide bombing attacks by province reveals that 16 attacks were carried out in the Al-Anbar province, 11 in Al-Hasakah, seven in Aleppo, six in Baghdad, five in the Salah al-Din province, four in Homs, three in Nineveh, one in Kirkuk and one in Deir al-Zor (a3maqagency.wordpress.com, December 2, 2015).  These figures demonstrate the great weight of suicide bombing attacks in ISIS’s military-terrorist activity in Iraq and Syria.
Android app for following ISIS news
  • ISIS’s media foundation Aamaqhas inaugurated an app for Android devices enabling its supporters to follow the news published by ISIS. Among other things, the reports include news about developments in the battles in Syria and Iraq, videos, and graphs detailing ISIS’s activity. The app is easy to use and can be downloaded from the Internet. Many Twitter accounts post tweets with links for downloading the app. The new application might be a response to an announcement by the organization Anonymous on the closure of 11,000 ISIS Twitter accounts and Telegram’s announcement that it has closed 78 ISIS-affiliated accounts.
Threats against the Jews
  • On December 5, 2015, an ISIS-affiliated Twitter shared a link to a video from the Deir al-Zor province entitled “To the Jews,” which begins with a photo of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, against a background of the Israeli flag and photos of a soldier and a Palestinian boy. The ISIS operative threatens the Jews and other infidels and notes that the flag of Allah will be raised at the White House and in the heart of Tel Aviv. Next the video shows children executing captured members of the Syrian regime (Twitter; alaswar.ml, December 5, 2015).
Execution of a “Russian spy”
  • The information office in ISIS’s Al-Raqqah province released a video entitled “You Shall be Disappointed and Humiliated O Russians.” The video shows an ISIS operative beheading a “Russian spy” who describes the circumstances of his handling and capture. The video shows a Russian-speaking man dressed in orange prison garb introducing himself in Russian, with Arabic subtitles, as Magomed Khasiyev, a Russian from Chechnya. He says that he was sent to the Islamic Caliphate by the Russian intelligence agency. He “confesses” to having spied. When he finishes talking he is beheaded, and the Russian text “blood will be spilled like water” appears on the screen.

[1]The Russians did not provide evidence that the Turkish president’s family was involved in buying oil from ISIS.

Spotlight on Iran

November 22 – December 6, 2015 Editor: Dr. Raz Zimmt
Ali Khamenei gives a speech before the Basij commanders.

Ali Khamenei gives a speech before the Basij commanders.

Brigadier General Abolreza Majiri

Brigadier General Abolreza Majiri

Qasem Soleimani.Source: Facebook page affiliated with the IRGC, November 25, 2015

Qasem Soleimani.Source: Facebook page affiliated with the IRGC, November 25, 2015

Qasem Soleimani says his prayers aboard a plane (Qasem Soleimani's website, November 30, 2015).

Qasem Soleimani says his prayers aboard a plane (Qasem Soleimani's website, November 30, 2015).

Russian President Putin and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meet in Tehran

Russian President Putin and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meet in Tehran

Ali-Akbar Velayati meets with Bashar Assad (IRNA, November 29, 2015).

Ali-Akbar Velayati meets with Bashar Assad (IRNA, November 29, 2015).

Ayyub Hassan Faleh al-Rubaie, aka Abu-Azrael (Qasemsoleimani.ir, November 23, 2015).

Ayyub Hassan Faleh al-Rubaie, aka Abu-Azrael (Qasemsoleimani.ir, November 23, 2015).

Iranian Zalzal missiles

Iranian Zalzal missiles

The two Kenyans arrested for working for the Qods Force (Al-Jazeera, November 28, 2015).

The two Kenyans arrested for working for the Qods Force (Al-Jazeera, November 28, 2015).


Overview[1]
  • More Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Shi'ite foreign fighters have been killed in Syria, among them an IRGC brigadier general.
  • Iran denied reports that Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force, was wounded in Syria. This past week Iran issued pictures, a video and an interview with Soleimani to refute the rumors.
  • Iran continues to declare its commitment to Bashar Assad's Syrian regime. Russian President Putin and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei met and stressed they would agree to no solution for Syria that would be unacceptable to the Syrian government.
  • Two Kenyan nationals were arrested in Kenya on suspicion of having been sent by the Qods Force to recruit Kenyans as spies and terrorists. 

 

Statements from Senior Iranian Officials about Iran's Regional Involvement
  • Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei gave a speech before commanders of the IRGC's Basij on the occasion of Basij Week. He discussed regional developments and criticized the policies of the United States and its allies in Iraq and Syria, claiming they supported terrorism. He argued that Western countries had no right to make decisions for Syria.
  • As to the situation in Bahrain, Khamenei said that all the Bahraini people wanted was democracy. He condemned the Bahraini government, which, he claimed, oppressed its citizens. He called it the dictatorship of a minority that followed the path of Yazid, the second Umayyad Caliph, despised by the Shi'ites.
  • Regarding the Palestinian arena, Khamenei said that the third Palestinian intifada had begun in the West Bank and that Iran supported the struggle of the Palestinians with everything at its disposal. He said that Palestine had been occupied for more than 60 years and while during that time several generations had come and gone, the Palestinian aspirations remained intact (Website of the supreme leader, November 25, 2015).
  • Mohammad Reza Naqdi, commander of the IRGC's Basij, interviewed by Iranian TV for Basij Week, repeated the official Iranian position that the IRGC and the Basij provided the armies in Syria and Iraq with "military advice." They shared Iran's military experience, he claimed, but did not sent fighting forces to either country (Tasnim News, November 23, 2015).
  • Hojjat ul-Islam Ali Sa'idi, the supreme leader's representative to the IRGC, told a Basij Week conference that the borders of Iran stretched Syrian army far as the Mediterranean Sea and the Straits of Bab al-Mandeb and continued to expand. He said that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was the standard bearer of the resistance and regional victories were the result of his strength and honesty (Fars News, November 25, 2015).
  • Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the IRGC's ground forces, told a conference of clerics and senior Sunni and Shi'ite tribal leaders in Sistan va Balochestan Province that the presence of the Iranian "advisors" on the front lines in Syria and Iraq was reasonable and necessary. Without it, he said, Iran would have to fight takfin terrorism within its own borders. He also said that all the capabilities of young Muslims had to be turned toward liberating Jerusalem and "cleansing Palestine of the filth of the Zionist regime," which was the main enemy of the Muslim nation. However, he said, the internal struggle currently being waged in the Muslim countries against terrorists made that impossible (Sepah News, December 1, 2015).
Iranian Intervention in Syria
  • During the past two weeks at least ten IRGC fighters were killed in Syria, one of them a brigadier general. He was Abolreza Majiri, from the Imam Hossein 14th Division in Isfahan Province, killed in Aleppo. Also killed in Syria was Abdolrashid Reshvand, commander of a battalion in Karaj, Alborz Province.
  • In addition, this past week at least nine Iranian and Pakistani fighters, who were recently killed in Syria, were buried. The dates of their deaths were not reported. The Iranian media emphasized the fact that three of the Iranians were Sunnis (Asr-e Iran, November 29, 2015). The recent deaths raised the number of Iranians killed since the ground offensive in Syria in October to more than 70.
  • This past week the Iranian media and social networks issued pictures and a video of Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force to refute the rumors in the Western and Arab media that he was wounded or killed in Syria. The video shows him in the operations room with Akram Abbas al-Ka'bi, commander of the Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba Iraqi Shi'ite militia. The dates of the video and photos were not reported.
  • Iran strongly denied reports that Qasem Soleimani had been wounded. IRGC spokesman Ramazan Sharif said Soleimani had not been wounded at all and was continuing to assist the "Islamic resistance in Syria and Iraq in their struggle against terrorists." He claimed the reports of his having been wounded were lies spread by the media affiliated with "global Zionism" in order to influence public opinion and the fighters in the front lines of the resistance in view of the resistance's recent victories in Syria (Sepah News, November 24, 2015).
  • On November 30, 2015, the Iranian media publicized an interview given by Soleimani to an Iranian news website in which he scorned rumors of his wounding and death. He smiled and said, "I have been seeking martyrdom in the plains and on the mountains" (Tasnim News, November 30, 2015).
  • In the meantime, an Iranian website quoted a report published by the Russian website "Sputnik" about Soleimani's alleged involvement in a mission to rescue the pilot from the Russian plane shot down by Turkey on November 24, 2015.
  • The website reported that according to a Syrian officer who participated in the action, Soleimani personally commanded the mission, in which Hezbollah and Syrian army commandos took part. According to the report, after the Russian plane crashed Soleimani contacted the Russians, informing them that a unit of special Hezbollah and Syrian army forces was ready for the extraction. He suggested the unit be put in charge of the mission because it was familiar with the geography of the region where the plane had crashed [in the Turkman mountains, northeast of Latakia]. The unit was in fact sent to carry out the mission with Russian aerial and intelligence support. According to the Syrian officer, Soleimani was present in the operations room until the mission had been successfully completed (Tasnim News, November 26, 2015).
  • This past week Ali-Reza Zakani, a conservative member of the Majlis (the Iranian parliament) revealed details of the conversation between Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Russian President Vladimir Putin held when Soleimani was in Moscow last July. Zakani, speaking before students, said Soleimani told Putin that the main problem facing Russian was that the 16,000 Chechens fighting in Syria and Iraq could return to Russia and become a serious threat together with the 30 million other Muslims in the Caucasus. He said Soleimani had convinced Putin, who had taken Iran's advice to intervene militarily in Syria (Fars News, November 24, 2015).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei met on November 23, 2015, and discussed the situation in Syria. Ali-Akbar Velayati, the supreme leader's advisor on international affairs, was also present, said that President Putin had stressed that no agreement would be reached at the talks held in Vienna concerning the future of Syria without coordinating with Iran. The two leaders also said they would not agree to a solution in the Syrian government found unsatisfactory (Tasnim News, November 24, 2015).
  • On November 29, 2015, Ali-Akbar Velayati, the supreme leader's advisor on international affairs, paid a visit to Syria and met with Syrian President Bashar Assad. Velayati said that Iran considered itself committed to continuing its support for Syria and President Assad under conditions in which the West and several regional countries had declared "a world war" against Syria. Velayati said that Iran's relations with Syria and Iraq were strategic and that Iran would not accept any peace agreement that had not been authorized by the Syrian government (Alef, November 29, 2015; Mehr News Agency, November 30, 2015). Velayati also met with Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.
Iranian Intervention in Iraq
  • A video was recently posted to the social networks of Ayyub Hassan Faleh al-Rubaie, aka Abu-Azrael, commander of the Ali Imam Battalions, one of the Iraqi militias fighting ISIS, swearing allegiance to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He appeals to Khamenei, says he respects and esteems him, and wishes he can meet him soon and pray with him.
  • Mohammad Hossein Sepehr, the supreme leader's deputy representative, told a conference of Basij commanders at Tehran University that without the IRGC's Qods Force to defend Iraq against ISIS, it would have fallen within less than a week (Basij Press, November 30, 2015).
Iranian Intervention in Yemen and around the Globe
  • The Iranian media reported that the Shi'ite Houthi Ansarollah movement in Yemen had developed a Zalzal-2 missile system and used it against the Al-Qarn military base in western Saudi Arabia (ISNA, November 24, 2015). No mention was made of collaboration between Iran and the Shi'ite Houthi movement in developing the missile, but a connection between them and the Iranian surface-to-surface Zalzal missiles cannot be ruled out.
  • On November 28, 2015, the Kenyan media reported that two Kenyans had recently been arrested by the police on suspicion of having been sent by the Iranian IRGC to recruit Kenyan nationals for purposes of espionage and terrorism.
  • The two were Abu-Bakr Sadiqlou, 69, a Shi'ite from Nairobi, who was arrested on October 29, 2015, after confessing to police that he had recruited young Kenyans to spy and carry out acts of terrorism in Nairobi. According to the Nairobi police, he was working for the IRGC's Qods Force. The other Kenyan was Yassin Sambai Juma, 29, arrested on November 19, 2015. He was a student recruited by Sadiqlou. During interrogation he told the police that his operator had organized a trip for him to Iran and introduced him to a Qods Force liaison person named "Parsa." Parsa instructed him to gather intelligence about Western targets in Nairobi (Reuters, November 28, 2015).
  • The Iranian embassy in Kenya denied any connection to the two Kenyans arrested. It said in a statement that Iran considered its relations with African countries to be very important, especially with Kenya, and was prepared to cooperate with the Kenyan government to clarify the affair (ISNA, November 30, 2015). In May 2013 a Kenyan court found two Iranian nationals guilty of having 15 kilograms (33 pounds) of explosives in their possession, which according to the authorities were meant to be used to attack Israeli and Western targets.
Iranian Religious and Propagation Activities around the Globe
  • The Iranian cultural center in Pakistan is planning to organize a Qur'an competition in December for "Islamic Unity Week." Islamic Unity Week which will be held at the end of December on the occasion of the Prophet Mohammad's birthday. Participants will compete in two categories: Qur'an recitation and Qur'an memorization. The competition is open to Pakistani citizens between the ages of 18 and 40 (IRNA, November 20, 2015).

[1]Spotlight on Iran is an Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center bulletin illuminating Iran's activities to establish its influence in the Middle East and beyond. It is based on reports in the Iranian media and written for the ITIC by Dr. Raz Zimmt, an expert on Iran's politics, society, foreign policy and social networks.

Spotlight on Iran

November 8 – 22, 2015 Editor: Dr. Raz Zimmt
Brigadier General Farshad Hasounizadeh, former commander of the Saberin special forces brigade, killed on October 12, 2015, near Aleppo.

Brigadier General Farshad Hasounizadeh, former commander of the Saberin special forces brigade, killed on October 12, 2015, near Aleppo.

The joint Syrian army-Iranian operations room (Fars News, October 22, 2015).

The joint Syrian army-Iranian operations room (Fars News, October 22, 2015).

Qasem Soleimani with Iraqi Shi'ite fighters from Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba (Twitter, November 13, 2015).

Qasem Soleimani with Iraqi Shi'ite fighters from Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba (Twitter, November 13, 2015).

Qasem Soleimani in the operations room south of Aleppo. Standing next to him is Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba commander Akram Abbas al-Ka'bi (Twitter, November 14, 2015)

Qasem Soleimani in the operations room south of Aleppo. Standing next to him is Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba commander Akram Abbas al-Ka'bi (Twitter, November 14, 2015)

Iranian Safir jeeps in use by the Syrian army

Iranian Safir jeeps in use by the Syrian army

A Tau anti-tank missile launched at a Safir jeep by the Suqour al-Jabal rebel organization

A Tau anti-tank missile launched at a Safir jeep by the Suqour al-Jabal rebel organization

Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security

Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security

Mohammad-Ali Jafari, commander of the IRGC

Mohammad-Ali Jafari, commander of the IRGC

Mohammad Reza Sheybani, Iranian ambassador to Syria

Mohammad Reza Sheybani, Iranian ambassador to Syria

Iranian funds distributed to Gazans (Fars News Agency)

Iranian funds distributed to Gazans (Fars News Agency)


Overview
  • The Iranian forces continue to suffer heavy losses in the fierce battles being waged in northwestern Syria. During the past two weeks at least 17 more Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fighters were killed, at least five of them officers. Since the beginning of the ground offensive in northern Syria at least 57 Iranian IRGC fighters have been killed.
  • This past week the social networks posted recent pictures of Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani in the region south of Aleppo, where the Syrian army has been clashing with rebel forces.
  • An IRGC officer was killed in Iraq.
  • The Iranian news agency Fars reported that Iran would provide $2 million in financial support to the families of terrorists killed in the Gaza Strip.
  • Muslim clerics from Cairo's Al-Azhar University issued a statement accusing Iran of investing huge sums of money in efforts to convert young Egyptians from Sunnah to Shi'a.

 

Statements from Senior Iranian Officials about Iran's Regional Involvement
  • Mohammad Reza Naqdi, commander of the IRGC's Basij militia, said that many young Iranians and Basij members had recently asked to be sent to Syria and Iraq, but that the organization did not intend to send groups of Basij fighters to those countries. He said that all the Iranian "advisors" sent to Syria were experienced and specialists, and that there were enough local fighters in Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Lebanon. That being the case, he said, there was no need to send groups of Basij fighters to those locations, because local fighters had a clear advantage over foreigners (Alef, November 9, 2015).
  • Hossein Amir Abdollahian, deputy foreign minister for Arab-African affairs, denied Iran intervened in the internal affairs of regional countries, and claimed some people could not distinguish between regional "Iranian influence" and "Iranian intervention." In a speech given at Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, he said that during the 30 years since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, Iran had achieved its regional influence by virtue of its "reasonable behavior and words," and it used that influence for the sake of its national security and the Muslim world. He added that without a doubt, Iran had "spiritual influence" in regional countries, but that did not mean it intervened in their internal affairs. He said Iran's success in the region was the result of the activity of all the regime's institutions, among them the foreign ministry and the IRGC (ISNA, November 16, 2015).
Iranian Intervention in Syria
  • The fierce battles in northwestern Syria continue taking a heavy toll of Iranian fighters. During the past two weeks at least 17 IRGC fighters were killed, among them five officers, bringing the total number of Iranians killed since the beginning of the ground offensive to at least 57 (as of November 16, 2015).
  •  On November 7, 2015, an Iranian hardline news site reported on the fighting in Syria near the city of Al-Safira in the Aleppo Governate. According to the report, about 2,000 elite fighters from six IRGC brigades and from the Fatemiyoun Brigade, composed of Afghan fighters, participated in the battle, which was supposed to liberate the city from ISIS. They included Saberin special forces Brigade, fighters from the Imam Hassan Mojtaba 15th Brigade, the 33rd Al-Mahdi Airborne Al-Mahdi Brigade, the Imam Sadegh 83rd Brigade, and the Hazrat Hojjat Armored Brigade from Ahvaz (Yalsarat, November 7, 2015).
  • The prominence of special unit fighters among the Iranian forces indicates Iran's efforts to send into battle trained soldiers with special skills to carry out special missions, including, in all probability, gathering intelligence.
  • On October 22, 2015, Fars News Agency broadcast a video taken by an Iranian broadcasting authority reporter permitted to enter the joint Syrian army-Iranian operations room in the Aleppo region. The video showed maps, aerial photographs and communications equipment used in the operations room to command the forces waging the ground offensive. On the wall was a poster of Ayatollah Khomeini, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and a third person who could not be identified but might be Syria President Bashar Assad.
  • A comparison of the names of the villages on the maps with media reports issued the same day indicated that the operations room commanded the Syrian army attack (with support from Iranian fighters) waged on October 22, 2015, in the rural areas south of Aleppo. According to the televised report, drones were used to take real-time pictures of the positions and movement of the jihadist rebel organizations.
  • The video boasted that "the Syrian army reaps victory after victory south of Aleppo," and was liberating areas occupied by the jihadist forces (referred to as "infidels" and "terrorist enemies"). It also praised the great experience gained by the Syrian army and its military capabilities. However, in retrospect, it would appear that the optimistic reports were exaggerated, as evidenced by the large number of losses among the Iranians who fought in the attack in support of the Syrian army.
  • This past week the social networks posted recent photos of Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani in the area south of Aleppo. The pictures showed him with fighters from the Iraqi Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba militia in the town of Al-Hader, south of Aleppo, where the Syrian army clashed with rebel forces. They also showed him in the operations room south of Aleppo, in the company of Akram Abbas al-Ka'bi, the commander of the Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba.
  • On November 11, 2015, several Iranian media and social networks posted pictures of Iranian Safir jeeps in use by the Syrian army.
  • The social networks also posted a video of a Tau anti-tank missile launched at a Safir jeep by the Suqour al-Jabal rebel organization, which belongs to the Free Syrian Army in the region south of Aleppo (Facebook.com/Persian.war.news, November 11, 2015).
  • On November 11, 2015, Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security, told the Iranian Arabic TV channel Al-Alem that "fewer than 50" Iranians had been killed in Syria, and that the reason for the large number of was the increase in the extent of fighting, which had led to more fatalities among the "Iranian advisors." He added that Iran had not been and was not interested in sending ground forces to Syria because the Syrians were capable of defending themselves.
  • Asked about Iran's position on Assad's political future, Shamkhani said Iran would support the results of any election held by the Syrians. He said for the past three and a half years the Western countries had unsuccessfully tried to topple the Assad regime, and were now trying to achieve with diplomacy what they had not been able to achieve militarily. He denied reports of differences of opinion between Iran and Russia regarding President Assad's political future.
  • At a ceremony marking 40 days since the death of Hossein Hamedani, senior Iranian military advisor killed in Syria in October, IRGC commander Mohammad-Ali Jafari said that Syria's security had a direct influence on Iran's security. He said had it not been for Hamedani, Damascus would have fallen to the rebels during the last two or three years (Tabnak, November 17, 2015).
  • At the end of the talks held in Vienna about Syria's future, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, deputy foreign minister for Arab-African affairs, said only the Syria people would choose their president and the future of their country. He said Iran had not allowed the final statement of the conference to include a reference to the ousting of the Syrian president, and stressed that only the Syrian people had the right to make such a decision (IRNA, November 14, 2015). On another occasion, Abdollahian said Iran had proposed to Bashar Assad that he move his family to Iran, but Assad had rejected the proposal, claiming he and his wife would remain in Syria until the last minute (Asr-e Iran, November 17, 2015).
  • On November 14, 2015, Mohammad Reza Sheybani, Iranian ambassador to Syria, spoke to the conservative daily newspaper Khorasan about developments in Syria. He said Aleppo was currently under Syrian regime control, but the regions around it were still controlled by "terrorists." He said during the past few days supporters of the Syrian regime had advanced about 50 kilometers (30 miles) beyond Aleppo.
  • As to increasing Iranian forces in Syria, he repeated Iran's official position that Iran's presence in Syria was limited to "advisors" and Iran opposed sending military forces to fight in foreign countries. He said that because of the increase in the fighting, the Iranian advisors were forced to provide more support for the Syrian forces, according to developments, and that was the reason for the rise in the number of Iranians killed. He also said, however, that the number of Iranians killed could not be compared with the number of Syrians killed.
  • Sheybani said there were three groups playing a major role in the fighting: the Syrian army, whose capabilities had been degraded; the "forces of resistance" operating in coordination with the Syrian regime, who bore the main weight of military operations in the combat zone; and Syria's "national defense forces," composed of Syrian and foreign volunteers from Pakistan and Afghanistan who operated in similar fashion to the Basij units in Iran.
  • He also said Iran regularly cooperated and consulted with Russia about the situation in Syria, and that therefore there was no reason for concern that in the future Russia would operate contrary to Iran's interests.
Iranian Intervention in Iraq
  • Jalil Khademi, an IRGC officer from Fars Province, was killed in Iraq (Fars News, November 17, 2015).
Iranian Intervention in the Palestinian Arena
  • On November 9, 2015, the Iranian news agency Fars reported Iran had transferred $2 million to the families of "martyrs" in the Gaza Strip. Nafez al-Araj, who heads the Palestinian Al-Shaheed institution, said the funds would be distributed among approximately 4,700 families of Palestinians killed between the beginning of the second intifada in 2000 and June 2014.
  • Accordingly, the family of a terrorist, if he was single, would receive three installments of $100. If he was married, the family would receive three installments of $200. Al-Araj claimed the funds were intended to ease the distress of the families of shaheeds living under the Israeli siege and suffering from the Gaza Strip's depressed economy. He expressed his gratitude to Iran for its continuing support of the Palestinian people.
  • Nafez al-Araj, who heads Al-Shaheed, is a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) activist. He also heads a PIJ-affiliated "charitable organization" in the Gaza Strip called Al-Ansar. It was founded in 2001, during the second intifada, and serves Iran as a conduit for funneling terrorist funds into the Gaza Strip and as a means of increasing Iranian influence within the Gazan population. Al-Ansar helps the families of terrorists who were killed (shaheeds), families whose houses were destroyed, and families of terrorists imprisoned in Israel. In the past it also helped families of shaheeds in the West Bank, with the authorization, patronage and full compliance of Mahmoud Abbas (Abu-Mazen).
  • So far, the Iranians have transferred several million dollars a year to Al-Ansar. The money is sent through the Palestinian branch of the Iranian martyrs' foundation (an institution established in Iran by Ayatollah Khomeini to support families of Iranians killed in the Iran-Iraq War). The foundation has two branches in Lebanon, one which supports Hezbollah and the other that supports Hamas and the PIJ. In 2003 Israel outlawed Al-Ansar. In 2007 the United States Treasury Department designated the Iranian martyrs' foundation and its Lebanese branches as sponsors of terrorism because they provided money for Hezbollah, Hamas and the PIJ.
Iranian Intervention in Egypt
  • Muslim clerics from Cairo's Al-Azhar University issued a statement accusing Iran of investing huge sums of money in efforts to convert young Egyptians from Sunnah to Shi'a. They warned that Iran's activities were liable to lead to internal wars and bloodshed in the Sunni countries. The Sheikh of Al-Azhar Ahmad al-Tayeb argued that Iranian officials had to exclude religion from their political games and invest their resources in helping the needy and the poor (Fars News, November 7, 2015).
  • The Egyptian media recently reported that Sabry Mohamed, who taught in the geography department at Al-Azhar University, was suspended after he invited guests from Iran to a conference he had organized in his department. It was also reported that the Egyptian ministry of endowments (waqf) closed the Imam Hussein mosque in Cairo between October 22 and 24, 2015 to prevent Ashura Day ceremonies from being held (Ashura Day mourns the death of Hussein bin Ali and is marked by Shi'ites) (The Cairo Post, October 29, 2015)
  • The Egyptian measures taken against Shi'ites indicate the failure of Iranian religious establishment efforts to improve its ties with the Egyptian religious establishment. A few months ago Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, a senior Iranian cleric, sent a letter to Sheikh Al-Azhar proposing a conference of Shi'ite and Sunni clerics to discuss obstacles to Islamic unity and suggest ways to strengthen unity between Shi'ites and Sunnis (Press TV, August 4, 2015). The letter was an expression of the ongoing effort of the Iranian clerical establishment to promote a dialogue between Shi'ites and Sunnis. Since the revolution in Egypt in 2011 senior Iranian clerics have made efforts to strengthen cooperation between the Shi'ite religious establishment in Iran and Cairo's Al-Azhar. The efforts manifest Iran's growing recognition that its regional involvement deepens the distrust of the Sunni states for Iran and makes it difficult for Iran to achieve regional hegemony.

Profile of IRGC Fighters Killed in Syria during the Past Month (Updated to November 16, 2015) – Dr. Raz Zimmt*


The Syrian-Iranian operations room set up in Aleppo before the Syrian army attack, waged with the support of Iranian fighters. The poster in the upper left hand corner shows Khamenei, Khomeini and an unidentified third person. The Persian text at the right reports on the operation room's activities (Fars News, October 22, 2015).
The Syrian-Iranian operations room set up in Aleppo before the Syrian army attack, waged with the support of Iranian fighters. The poster in the upper left hand corner shows Khamenei, Khomeini and an unidentified third person. The Persian text at the right reports on the operation room's activities (Fars News, October 22, 2015).

Overview

1.   Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, the Qods Force of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), under the command of Qasem Soleimani, has led the effort to keep Damascus and strategic Syrian strongholds in the north from falling into the hands of the rebels, and to prevent the collapse of the Syrian regime. The Iranians have supported the Syrians with arms and guidance, and have sent Iranian advisors and fighters to Syria for close cooperation with the Syrian army and security forces. Iranians have also employed Shi'ite proxies in the fighting in Syria (including Hezbollah and foreign Shi'ite fighters from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan).

2.   Iran's involvement in Syria, like its involvement in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, had, until recently, involved a few hundred Iranian advisors and several thousand Shi'ite fighters directed by the Qods Force. The IRGC's presence was limited and its function was mainly advisory. The Iranians did not employ organic military units against the rebels and usually did not involve themselves directly in the fighting (although on occasion IRGC operatives found themselves in the crossfire between the Syrian regime forces and the rebels, which led to their deaths).

3.   The military successes of ISIS, Al-Nusra Front and other rebel organizations in northwest Syria raised doubts among the Iranians as to Assad's ability to survive over time as president of Syria. That led Iran to significantly increase its support for the Syrian regime, whose control was waning in regions vital to Syrian interests ("Little Syria"). Thus in the middle of September 2015 Iran increased the number of its forces in Syria, apparently dispatching between 1,500 and 2,000 fighters, some of them taking an active part in the fighting. The reinforcements, composed of IRGC and Shi'ite foreign fighters from Afghanistan and Iraq, were sent to support the Syrian army in its attack in northern Syria at the beginning of October 2015.

4.   The Syrian army attack, with the combined aid of Iranian and Hezbollah fighters and Russian aerial support, began on October 7, 2015. Ajoint Syrian-Iranian operations room was set up in the Aleppo region to coordinate and command the attack forces. Fighting was waged in the areas of Hama, Idlib and Aleppo to relieve the strategic pressure exerted by Al-Nusra Front and its allies on the Syrian regime's vital strongholds in Latakia and along the coast. Apparently, at first the Syrian army had local successes, but at the end of October the attack petered out and the rebel organizations, including Al-Nusra Front and ISIS, gained the initiative. Battles are currently being fought in the rural areas south of Aleppo, north of Hama and around Idlib, and so far they have not been won.

5.   The fierce battles in northern and western Syria caused the Iranian forces heavy losses: since the beginning of the ground offensive in the north at least 53 Iranian IRGC fighters have been killed in Syria (as of November 15, 2015).[1] That is a sharp increase in the number of Iranian dead relative to the period before the beginning of the ground offensive. The large number of Iranians killed in a short time, and the strikingly large number of officers (including high-ranking officers), would seem to indicate that IRGC fighters are on the front line of the current ground offensive.

Qasem Soleimani, Qods Force commander, at the grave of an IRGC fighter killed in Syria (Afsaran.ir, April 14, 2015).
Qasem Soleimani, Qods Force commander, at the grave of an IRGC fighter killed in Syria (Afsaran.ir, April 14, 2015).

6.   An analysis of the profiles of the Iranians killed indicates that the overwhelming majority belonged to the IRGC's regular fighting units. That means that most of Iran's military involvement in Syria is based on those units, at the expense of the Qods Force. While the Qods Force commander, Qasem Soleimani, personally leads the attack in northwest Syria and coordinates with the Syrian army, the IRGC and Hezbollah, the main thrust is carried out by fighters in the regular IRGC units (infantry, armored corps and special forces). The relatively large size of those units (compared with the Qods Force, which is relatively limited in size) makes it possible for them to send many more fighters to the battle zones and to provide a response for the constraints on Iran in Syria.

7.   The profiles of the Iranians killed also indicate the preponderance of fighters in special units among the forces sent to Syria. They include the Saberin brigade, the Ansar al-Mahdi security unit, the 33rd Airborne Brigade and the 154th Battalion. That would seem to indicate an Iranian effort to send trained fighters with special skills to carry out special missions, possibly including gathering intelligence. The Shi'ite foreign fighters, especially those from Afghanistan in theFatemiyoun Brigade, continue to fight on the front lines of the ground offensive and to bear the brunt of the fighting. However, their numbers among those killed since the beginning of the Syrian army attacks have been relatively low because of the sharp rise in the number of IRGC fighters killed.

8.   The heavy losses incurred by Iran in Syria have required the Iranian leadership to provide justification for Iran's military involvement in Syria and explanations for the high number of Iranians killed. To that end the regime instituted a media campaign to enlist public opinion to support Iranian involvement in Syria and obviate any possible criticism. The campaign includes stressing Shi'ite religious symbolism and praising sacrifice for the sake of defending the sites in Syria sacred to Shi'a, especially the shrine of Set Zaynab (the prophet Muhammad's granddaughter), south of Damascus (a promotional tactic also used by Hezbollah). The Iranian leadership also employs the arguments of Iran's fundamental commitment to continue its support for the Assad regime and its benefits for Iranian national interests.

9.   Public reactions in Iran to reports of the increasing number of Iranians killed in Syria have been mixed. While Iranian users in news websites and social media have expressed sorrow for the death of their fellow citizens, they are beginning to wonder about the large number of deaths and have started asking if a campaign costing so many lives is worthwhile. Although public criticism of the fighting in Syria is limited so far, it can be assumed that as the number of Iranians killed rises, and as Iranian military involvement in Syria becomes deeper, public criticism and protest against continuing involvement will increase.

10.   A key question is whether the heavy Iranian losses will lead to internal disagreement within the Iranian leadership regarding the advisability of Iran's strategy in Syria. So far, there have been no significant indications of such disagreements. However, remarks recently made by Mohammad-Ali Jafari, commander of the IRGC, might hint at the first cracks in the leadership's position on the political future of Bashar Assad in an eventual political arrangement in Syria. Jafari, speaking to a group of students, said that some of Iran's officials did not understand why Iran had to show such sensitivity to President Assad, who enjoys great support and on whom the "resistance" in Syria depends. He did not mention the names of those officials but their names and positions might be exposed if Iran sinks deeper into the Syrian mire and internal criticism in Iran grows.

11.   This study is composed of the following sections:

1)  Section 1: Iranian involvement in Syria and recent changes

2)  Section 2: Profile of Iranians killed in Syria

3)  Section 3: The influence of Iran's heavy losses on its strategy in Syria

4)  Section 4: Iranian public reactions to the heavy losses in Syria

5)  Section 5: Iranian regime explanations and media propaganda regarding the heavy losses in Syria

6)  Appendix: Names of Iranians killed since the beginning of the Syrian army's ground offensive (as of November 16, 2015).

[*] This study was written in coordination with the research staff of the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.
[1]The IRGC calls the Iranians killed "martyrs [who died] defending the sacred sites" (shohada-ye modafe-e haram), after the mosque in the southern suburb of Damascus, where, according to the tradition, Zaynab, the daughter of the Imam Ali and the granddaughter of Muhammad, is buried. The name was chosen deliberately because defending a "sacred site" provides religious legitimacy for Iran's involvement in Syria. Hezbollah uses a similar religious justification for its military involvement in Syria.

Spotlight on Global Jihad (November 5 – 11, 2015)

A group of Chechens showing weapons and military equipment allegedly seized from a Russian force in Latakia (The Long War Journal, November 6, 2015)

A group of Chechens showing weapons and military equipment allegedly seized from a Russian force in Latakia (The Long War Journal, November 6, 2015)

Al-Nusra Front operatives advancing to Tall Al-Sarwu and Tall Al-Maqbarah from the rural area south of Aleppo (Al-Nusra Front’s Twitter account, November 5, 2015).

Al-Nusra Front operatives advancing to Tall Al-Sarwu and Tall Al-Maqbarah from the rural area south of Aleppo (Al-Nusra Front’s Twitter account, November 5, 2015).

Jund Allah operatives taking over Morek (the organization’s media foundation)

Jund Allah operatives taking over Morek (the organization’s media foundation)

Rockets being fired by ISIS at the Iraqi Army west of Ramadi (Akhbar al-Muslimeen, November 7, 2015)

Rockets being fired by ISIS at the Iraqi Army west of Ramadi (Akhbar al-Muslimeen, November 7, 2015)

Damaged truck with the inscription: “The Islamic State - the Raiders Battalion - Nineveh” (ISIS-affiliated Twitter page, November 7, 2015).

Damaged truck with the inscription: “The Islamic State - the Raiders Battalion - Nineveh” (ISIS-affiliated Twitter page, November 7, 2015).

Abu Aisha the Egyptian, the ISIS suicide bomber who detonated the car bomb in Al-Arish.

Abu Aisha the Egyptian, the ISIS suicide bomber who detonated the car bomb in Al-Arish.


Main events of the week

  • According to media reports from the battle zones, the Syrian Army’s ground offensive, with Iranian and Russian air support, has been halted.The rebel organizations, led by the Al-Nusra Front and ISIS (which are collaborating in face of the common enemy) took the initiative and are now expanding the areas under their control south of Aleppo and north of Hama.If they continue to advance, the rebel organizations are liable to cut off the Syrian forces in the area of Aleppo from their logistic hinterland in the areas controlled by the Syrian regime. On the other hand, according to Syrian media reports, the Syrian Army managed to lift the siege on the Kuweyres military airbase, east of Aleppo.
  • Additional information published in the media reinforces the conclusion that the Russian plane was downed in Sinai as a result of the explosion of an IED, planted on board in Sharm el-Sheikh. ISIS, on its part, began a media campaign (including in Russian) presenting the interception of the plane as an act of revenge for the airstrikes carried out by the Russians against it in Syria. ISIS spokesmen threatened to carry out additional acts of revenge, including in Russia itself.
  • In the meantime, ISIS continues to establish its control over the important city of Sirte, in northern Libya. ISIS is brutally forcing local residents to obey the strict Salafist code of conduct (as it has done in Iraq and Syria), imposing taxes and detaining or killing its opponents. At the same time, ISIS is establishing its military infrastructure in Sirte, including through the establishment of a new training center for new fighters who will fight in the ranks of ISIS throughout Libya.  

 

The international campaign against ISIS

US and coalition airstrikes
  • This week, the US and coalition forces continued their airstrikes against ISIS targets. During the week, a few dozen airstrikes were carried out by means of fighter planes, attack aircraft, and UAVs. The United States reportedly resumed its airstrikes in Syria over the past few days, after having stopped them almost entirely in recent weeks (The Guardian, November 8, 2015).
  • Following are the main airstrikes (CENTCOM website):
  • Syria– over fifty airstrikes were carried out, concentrated in the areas of Marea, Al-Hasakah, Al-Hawl (southeast of Al-Hasakah) and Abu Kamal. The airstrikes damaged ISIS tactical units, battle positions, bunkers and buildings used by ISIS, among other things.
  • Iraq– the airstrikes were concentrated in the areas of Albu Hayat (south of Haditha), Baiji, Mosul, Ramadi, Sinjar, Sultan Abdullah (south of Mosul), Fallujah and Kisik (west of Mosul). The airstrikes damaged ISIS tactical units, battle positions, vehicles (including car bombs), rocket launching positions, buildings and bunkers, among other things.
Increasing military involvement in Syria by the US, Britain and France
  • According to US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, there is a high probability that the US will send additional American troops to fight against ISIS in Syria. This is contingent on the US finding suitable partners from among “the local forces” in Syria. According to Carter, if the United States finds other organizations in Syria that have the motivation and ability to fight against ISIS and are prepared to do so, then it will send more troops there (ABC News, November 8, 2015). 
  • Britain reportedly intends to escalate its military campaign against ISIS in Syria as soon as Parliament reaches a consensus to do so. In this context, Chief of the Defence Staff of the British Armed Forces General Nicolas Houghton said it makes no sense for Britain to attack targets in Iraq but not in Syria, since ISIS has bases in Syria as well. He called on the British government to authorize the Army to attack in Syria as well, since Britain’s current role in the battle against ISIS is incomplete (Sunday Mirror, November 8, 2015).
  • French Defense Minister Jean Yves Le Drian reported that on November 8, 2015, France attacked an ISIS oil supply center near Deir al-Zor, near the border between Syria and Iraq. This was France’s third airstrike in Syria since French President Hollande’s announcement that France was joining the coalition against ISIS. On the two previous occasions, the French attacked training camps for foreign fighters who had allegedly planned to carry out terrorist attacks in France (Al-Arabiya TV, November 9, 2016).

Russian involvement in the civil war in Syria

  • Speaking before Congress, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland said that a large part of Russia’s airstrikes were directed against targets that did not belong to terrorist organizations. In response, the Russian Ministry of Defense noted US officials did not explain where the terrorist organizations’ positions were located, giving rise to the suspicion that the United States is by no means interested in sharing this information with other countries (Sputnik, November 5, 2015). According to the Russian Foreign Minister, Russia does not attack targets that are not related to terrorism and that threaten Syria’s existence, and the American allegations in this regard are unacceptable (UN News Center, November 7, 2015).
  • A network calling itself The Caucasus Fighters, made up of Chechen and other operatives from the northern Caucasus, has issued a video showing weapons allegedly seized from a Russian force operating in the Latakia region. The video shows the unit commander, codenamed Hamza the Chechen, next to another fighter in the unit holding what he claims is a Russian bulletproof vest. According to Hamza the Chechen, the Russians withdrew, leaving behind large quantities of weapons and equipment (The Long War Journal, November 6, 2015).

Main developments in Syria

The area of Aleppo
  • The rebel organizations continue to expand the area under their control south of the city of Aleppo.This week the Al-Nusra Front took over a few strategic locations in the village of Al-Wadihi.Thus the rebel organizations are approaching the main highway between Aleppo and Hama, and are threatening to cut off the Syrian Army in and around Aleppo from its logistic and military hinterland. On the other hand, the Syrians reported that they had managed to remove the siege on the Kuweyres military airbase, east of Aleppo.

 

  • This week, the Al-Nusra Front expanded the areas under its control, as part of what it calls the second stage of the battle to regain control of the southern part of Aleppo. This week, Al-Nusra Front operatives managed to take over a few strategic locations in the area of the village of Al-Wadihi, about 11 km south of Aleppo. The places they took over are Tall Al-Sarwu, Tall Al-Maqbarah and Tall Teena Khaled (Twitter accounts affiliated with the Al-Nusra Front, November 5, 2015). An Al-Nusra Front’s Twitter account posted photos showing its operatives firing rockets at an Iranian force in Tall Al-Sarwu and Tall Al-Maqbarah (Al-Nusra Front’s Twitter account, November 5, 2015).
Joint Syrian- Iranian operations room in the area of Aleppo
  • On October 22, 2015, the Iranian Fars News Agency aired a video filmed by an Iranian broadcasting authority reporter who had been permitted to enter the joint Syrian-Iranian operations room in the area of Aleppo. The video shows maps, aerial photographs and two-way radios used by the operations room to command the military forces carrying out the attack. On the wall there is a poster of Imam Khomeini, Supreme Leader Khamenei and another unidentifiable figure (possibly President Bashar al-Assad).
  • Based on an examination of the names of the villages that appear on the maps and aerial photographs in the war room, compared with media reports from the same day, it is evident that the joint operations room commanded the Syrian Army’s offensive (aided by Iranian fighters) that took place on October 22, 2015, in the rural area south of Aleppo. According to the Iranian reporter, the operations room used UAVs to obtain current photographs of the positions and movements of the jihadi rebel organizations.
  • The video boasts that “the Syrian Army is enjoying one victory after another in southern Aleppo” and liberating areas that had been occupied by “the jihadi forces (called “the takfiris” or “the terrorist enemy” by the Iranian reporter). The report also praises the considerable experience that the Syrian Army is gaining and its military capabilities. In retrospect, however, it seems that these optimistic reports are greatly exaggerated and that the Syrian Army’s attack was a failure, which was manifested, inter alia, in heavy losses among the Iranians who were in the area and supported the Syrian Army (around 46 fatalities so far[1]). Now the rebels are conducting a counterattack, expanding their control over the rural area south of Aleppo, and threatening to cut off the Syrian Army and the forces that support it (Iran and Hezbollah) from their hinterland.
Syrian reports on the lifting of the siege on the Kuweyres military airbase
  • According to reports on media channels affiliated with the Syrian regime and Hezbollah, the Syrian Army has managed to lift the siege on the Kuweyres military airbase, east of Aleppo. According to these reports, the Syrian Army managed to take over a few villages near the airbase, which was then entered by a Syrian Army infantry force (Al-Manar TV, November 10, 2051). Eight Hezbollah operatives were reportedly killed during the operation to lift the siege (SNN, November 10, 2015). According to a report by the Syrian news agency (November 10, 2015), Syrian President Bashar al-Assad spoke on the phone to the airbase commander and the commander of the force that lifted the siege, congratulating the force that carried out the operation.
The area of Hama
  • Concurrently with the military effort south of Aleppo, the rebel organizations continue to expand their control in the rural area north of Hama, threatening to cut off the international highway between Hama and Aleppo.
  • This week, the battles were concentrated in the area of the town of Morek, north of Hama. Operatives of a jihadi military framework by the name of Jund Allah, a group affiliated with Al-Qaeda, took over the town of Morek. This is a town located on the main road between Aleppo and Hama, and its takeover threatens to cut off Aleppo from the main traffic artery leading to the south. Russian fighter planes repeatedly attacked rebel positions on the outskirts of the town (Khatwa, November 5, 2015).
  • Following the takeover of the town of Morek, the rebel organizations worked to expand their control over the rural area north of Hama: on November 6, 2015, the rebel forces, led by the Ahrar al-Sham organization and a number of other Islamic organizations, reportedly captured two towns from the Syrian regime forces: Atshan, located about 30 km northeast of Hama (east of Morek) and Umm Hartayn, near Atshan. At least 16 Syrian Army soldiers and a number of Islamic rebel organization operatives were reportedly killed in these battles. Russian planes attacked in this sector, in order to provide air support for the Syrian Army. Battles were also waged between the two sides on the front to the north and northeast of the town of Ma’an, about 24 km north of Hama (syriahr.com, November 6, 2015).
Idlib province
  • Jaysh al-Fatah, led by the Al-Nusra Front, attacked the villages of Kafraya and Fu’ah, northeast of Idlib. The attack took place in response to the so-called “violation of the ceasefire” by Russia (Al-Durar al-Shamiya, November 4, 2015). In September 2015, a six-month ceasefire involving Al-Zabadani and the Shiite villages of Fu’ah and Kafraya northeast of Idlib was declared. The agreement includes the evacuation of 10,000 civilians from Fu’ah and Kafraya in cars belonging to the Red Cross, in exchange for the departure of 500 militants of the rebel organizations from Al-Zabadani (LBC, September 25, 2015).
  • According to a report from November 6, 2015, a pregnant German journalist was abducted by the Al-Nusra Front operatives in the town of Salqin, about 29 km northwest of Idlib. The journalist had entered Syria illegally via the Turkey-Syria border. German government officials are negotiating with the Al-Nusra Front over her release, in return for a ransom of EUR 6 million. The journalist’s name and place of employment are unknown (alkhaleejonline.net, November 6, 2015).
Al-Raqqah province
  • According to recent media reports, Russian airstrikes have caused great destruction in Al-Raqqah, ISIS’s so-called capital. The main bridge connecting the city of Al-Raqqah to its periphery was reportedly attacked, among other things. According to local residents, ISIS, which controls the city, has cut off the city’s water sources and does not allow its residents to go to the Euphrates River to fetch water. The supply of electricity in the city has been disrupted and electricity is available only during predefined hours. ISIS operatives have also set up many checkpoints on the main streets of the city and in its residential neighborhoods (Zaman al-Wasl, November 4, 2015).
Al-Hasakah province
  • ISIS operatives reportedly released a group of 37 Syrian Christians, part of a group of 200 Christians who were abducted by ISIS in February 2015. The group returned to the village of Tel Tamer, in the Al-Hasakah province in northeastern Syria. According to members of the group, negotiations to release the remaining captives continue. This is the second group of Christians released by ISIS in the wake of negotiations (catholicherald.co.uk, November 7, 2015).

Main developments in Iraq

Overview
  • Fighting between ISIS and the Iraqi Army continues around the city of Ramadi and in Samarra, north of Baghdad, with no significant changes on the ground.  The Iraqi Defense Ministry announced that US forces operating in Iraq had finished training 4,800 Iraqi soldiers to fight against ISIS. Their training included, among other things, fighting in built-up areas and fighting against guerrilla warfare on the part of ISIS (Al-Jazeera TV, November 8, 2015).
Ramadi
  • This week as well, media channels affiliated with the Iraqi Army and with the Shiite militias that support it reported attacks on ISIS targets and ISIS convoys in the area of Ramadi. According to a report from November 5, 2015, the Iraqi Army attacked an ISIS convoy, killing many ISIS operatives. That same day, the Iraqi Army announced that the Iraqi Air Force had attacked three ISIS targets in the city of Ramadi and a large ISIS armory (Al-Sumaria channel, November 6, 2015). According to a report from November 7, 2015, the Iraqi Army fired Kornet missiles at a truck and two booby-trapped vehicles belonging to ISIS, northeast of the city Ramadi (Twitter page of the Shiite militias that support the Iraqi Army, November 7, 2015). On the other hand, ISIS attacked Iraqi Army positions west of Ramadi.
  • According to a number of reports, ISIS has set up a series of obstacles around the city of Ramadi, which hamper the attacks carried out by the Iraqi Army. ISIS operatives in Ramadi have also begun to use the network of tunnels built by ISIS in order to move between various parts of the city and to reach its outskirts from the city center (Al-Hayat, November 8, 2015; Sputnik, November 4, 2015). In view of the pressure on the city of Ramadi, ISIS has apparently brought in reinforcements from other provinces in Iraq.
Samarra
  • This week as well, fighting continued between the Iraqi Army and ISIS in the area of the city of Samarra, south of Baiji. ISIS is apparently trying to put pressure on the Iraqi Army in the area of Samarra, after the loss of the city of Baiji, in order to cut it off from Baghdad.
  • Ahmed al-Assadi, spokesman for the Shiite militias that support the Iraqi Army (the so-called popular mobilization) reported that ISIS lost 920 operatives in the battle to liberate the city of Baiji (Al-Hara, November 5, 2015). The information has not been verified. If it is correct, then a significant number of ISIS operatives died in the battle over the city of Baiji.
The city of Baghdad
  • On November 8, 2015, a double suicide bombing attack was carried out in the city of Baghdad. In the attack, two car bombs driven by suicide bombers exploded in the Shiite neighborhood of Al-Sadr, in Baghdad. As a result, seven people were killed and ten others were injured. ISIS was apparently behind the attack (Al-Quds al-Arabi, November 8, 2015). ISIS occasionally detonates car bombs in the Shiite neighborhoods of Baghdad in order to sow fear and to harm the Shiite-affiliated Iraqi government.

Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula

ISIS’s Sinai province’s campaign against the Egyptian security forces
  • During the week, the Egyptian security forces continued their intensive counterterrorism activities against operatives of the ISIS’s Sinai province. As part of their operation, the Egyptian security forces have carried out numerous airstrikes, mainly against terrorist bases in the areas of Al-Arish, Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid. In an extensive military operation, the Egyptian security forces detained several dozen suspects, destroyed terrorist infrastructure and confiscated weapons, cars, motorcycles and uniforms of the Egyptian security forces (Al-Watan, Al-Masry al-Youm, November 6, 2015). The Egyptian security forces also reportedly killed ten militants in the village of Al-Jura who were in charge of manufacturing rocket warheads (Al-Watan, November 4, 2015).
  • On the other hand, Sinai province operatives continued to carry out attacks against the Egyptian security forces, some of which were thwarted. Following are a number of incidents:
  • November 8, 2015– during search operations by the Egyptian security forces in the village of Al-Mahdiya in Rafah, the forces identified two operatives attempting to plant two IEDs. After the shootout, they were killed by the security forces (Sky News, November 8, 2015).
  • November 7, 2015 – the Egyptian security forces killed two Sinai province operatives who had planted an IED near a checkpoint of the Egyptian security forces. Another operative was killed in a clash with the Egyptian security forces (Al-Watan, November 7, 2015).
  • November 7, 2015 – the Egyptian security forces uncovered three tunnels near the village of Al-Tawil, south of Rafah. The tunnels contained food and water, along with 200 kilograms of explosives, five automatic weapons and a large quantity of ammunition (Al-Watan, November 7, 2015).
  • The Sinai province announced that it had detonated an IED against a minesweeper vehicle on the road between Al-Zuweid and Rafah (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, November 4, 2015).
  • May 7, 2015– a car bomb exploded near the officers club in Al-Arish. The blast killed six Egyptian policemen and civilians and wounded another ten. ISIS’s Sinai province claimed responsibility for the attack. According to the announcement, the attack was carried out by a suicide bomber codenamed Abu Aisha the Egyptian (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, November 4, 2015).
Crash of Russian passenger plane over Sinai (update)
  • Additional information based in part on intelligence, quoted by Western media, reinforces the conclusion that the Russian plane was downed as a result of an IED planted on the plane by ISIS.Some of the reports:
  • A senior British security source said that British intelligence had intercepted conversations between ISIS operatives with a British accent after the Russian plane crash in Sinai. They are suspected of being the ISIS operatives who prepared the bomb that was planted in the Russian plane (Sunday Express, November 8, 2015).
  • Egyptian sources close to the investigation of the crash said that after the analysis of the two black boxes from the plane, the prevailing assessment is that an IED planted on the plane caused the crash. According to the sources, this has not yet been conclusively proven. The Russians believe that an employee at the airport in Sharm el-Sheikh planted the IED on the plane, unbeknownst to the Egyptian security officials (Al-Mayadeen, November 7, 2015).
  • In the meantime, ISIS is conducting a media campaign presenting the downing of the plane as an act of revenge for the airstrikes carried out by the Russians in Syria and threatening to carry out additional terrorist attacks:
  • On November 4, 2015, ISIS’s Sinai province issued an audio file in which it again claimed responsibility for downing the Russian aircraft over Sinai. The speaker notes that the downing of the plane was “an imperative of Allah”. The speaker also says that ISIS will choose when and how to explain how it carried out the operation. He adds that the plane was downed on the anniversary of the pledge of allegiance (by the operatives of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis in Sinai) to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (archive.org, November 4, 2015).

  • ISIS’s media foundation in the Nineveh province released a video entitled “The Downing of the Russian Plane – Revenge for our People in Al-Sham (Syria).” The video shows a group of Western-looking operatives, including a Russian speaker who congratulates the Sinai province for downing the plane. He addresses President Putin directly, calling him a pig, and says that the Russians will be sorry for sending planes, equipment and soldiers to fight against ISIS, since they [ISIS operatives] will reach every one of them and will not content themselves with destroying their planes, and will carry out attacks in their country and will slaughter them.

  • ISIS media foundation in the Aleppo province released a video entitled “Healing the Soul by killing the Russians.” In the video, ISIS claims responsibility for downing the plane and explains how Russia established ties with Iran, attacked the houses of Muslims in Syria and, in effect, constitutes another branch of Assad’s army. The video shows Syrian civilians praising the downing of the Russian plane and anticipating “more successes.”

The global jihad in other countries

Libya
  • On November 8, 2015, Serbia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement that two employees of the Embassy of Serbia in Libya (a man and a woman) had been abducted in the city of Sabratah, in western Libya (68 km west of Tripoli). No details about the employees were given (Russia al-Youm, November 8, 2015).
  • According to local sources in Libya, ISIS operatives took control of two trucks loaded with flour, which were on their way to Jafrah, in the south of the country. The trucks were unloaded in Sirte and the drivers were released. Last week, this happened again, with trucks of flour on their way to the south of the country. The flour was unloaded and sold to bakeries in the city of Sirte for a high price (Akhbar Libya).
Sirte
  • According to ongoing reports, ISIS continues to impose its rule on the local population in the city of Sirte:ISIS has granted a final extension to shop owners in the city who have not yet paid the poll tax (jizya). According to a jihadi source, ISIS operatives in Sirte detained five Libyan citizens who refused to pay the poll tax. They threatened to kill them if their families did not pay the tax (Al-Bawaba News website, November 6, 2015). ISIS also warned the shop owners whose occupations are prohibited by the  Islamic court that ISIS set up in the city that they must change their sphere of operation (ISIS has banned the sale of cigarettes, perfume, cosmetics, women’s clothing apart from the hijab, underwear for men and women, and CDs of movies and songs). ISIS has also banned the existence of cafés for smoking hookahs, and beauty salons (Akhbar Libya, November 3, 2015).
  • ISIS has begun the construction of a new training center in the area of Sirte with the aim of training fighters for its ranks in Libya.The center is being built in the area of Al-Sawawa, located about seven kilometers east of the city. ISIS is reportedly forcing the city’s residents to enlist, and those who refuse are detained and tortured (Al-Bawaba News website, November 6, 2015). ISIS’s training center is supervised by instructors originally from the Gaza Strip and Iraq: one is a Palestinian codenamed Abu Sufyan al-Ghadan, who served in the Hamas military wing, and the other an Iraqi named Jassam Mahmoud, aka Abu Omar al-Tikriti. On November 4, 2015, a powerful explosion was reported in the area of Al-Sab’ah in Sirte, where most of ISIS’s camps in the city are located. According to subsequent media reports, this was a demonstration of a car bomb explosion which was carried out in front of Libyan minors who recently enlisted in the ranks ISIS. The minors come from Sirte, Nofaliya and Ajdabiya (Bawabat Ifriqya al-Ikhbariya, November 4, 2015; Shabakat Sirte al-Ikhbariya’s Facebook page, November 5, 2015).
Ajdabiya
  • On November 5, 2015, Salafist Sheikh Faraj Al-Uraybi was murdered in the city of Ajdabiya, southeast of Sirte. ISIS claimed responsibility for his murder. He was the seventh Salafist sheikh recently murdered in the area. According to a security source in the city, the number of murders of imams, police and security officials, and civilian activists has reached 30 (Akhbar Libya 24, November 6, 2015; Al-Bawaba News, November 6, 2015).
Bangladesh
Police attacked by ISIS operatives at a checkpoint outside Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh
  • On the morning of November 4, 2015, two men on a motorcycle reached a police checkpoint in Baruipara, near the capital Dhaka. The two motorcycle riders, who were wearing helmets, stabbed two police officers, shot at them and then fled the scene (nytimes.com website, November 5, 2015). On November 4, 2015, ISIS’s Bangladesh province posted a claim of responsibility for the attack in the capital Dhaka (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account; justpaste.it, November 4, 2015).

[1] A document summing up the Iranian losseswill be published separately.