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The Liberation of Fallujah: What Next?

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Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declares the liberation of Fallujah (Al-Iraqiya TV, June 26, 2016)
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declares the liberation of Fallujah (Al-Iraqiya TV, June 26, 2016)

Overview

1.   On May 22, 2016, a campaign began to liberate the Iraqi city of Fallujah from ISIS. The fighting was led by the Iraqi security forces with the support of Sunni and Shi'ite militias and American-led coalition airstrikes. On June 17 Iraqi army forces took control of the center of the city and its government buildings. On June 25 the liberation of Fallujah was formally declared when Iraqi forces took control of the district of al-Julan in the northwestern part of the city (ISIS's last stronghold). On June 26, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared Fallujah liberated. The campaign for the city is probably not over, because the Iraqi security forces will need a considerable amount of time to rid the city and its surrounding areas of ISIS operatives and of IEDs and booby traps.

2.   The liberation of Fallujah is important for Iraq's security. The city served ISIS as a base for repeated terrorist and guerrilla attacks on Baghdad, which is only 54 kilometers (about 33 miles) away. Liberating Fallujah and ridding the surrounding areas of ISIS operatives may help the Iraqi government stabilize Baghdad's security, even if only gradually. The liberation of Fallujah is also a blow to the image of ISIS and radical Islam in Iraq, because Fallujah has the reputation of being a stronghold of support for ISIS and a key point of Sunni resistance to the central Shi'ite-oriented Iraqi government in Baghdad and to the West.

Fallujah after being liberated from ISIS (Twitter account of Victorious Iraq, June 28, 2016)
Fallujah after being liberated from ISIS (Twitter account of Victorious Iraq, June 28, 2016)

3.   Moreover, the liberation of Fallujah is another stage in the Iraqi effort to drive ISIS out of the large Sunni Anbar Province. That effort intensified over the past six months, and with American air support the Iraqi security forces successfully liberated a series of towns along the Euphrates River conquered by ISIS in 2014 and the first half of 2015. On May 17, 2016, the Iraqi security forces also took control of the town of al-Rutbah, near the Iraqi-Syrian-Jordanian border.

4.   ISIS still holds several towns along the upper Euphrates, among them Rawa, Anah and Qa'im near the Iraqi-Syrian border[1] (see map). As a result ISIS operatives were pushed into rural and desert areas, from where they continue carrying out terrorist and guerilla attacks against the Iraqi forces, the Iraqi administration and the Shi'ite population. In addition, ISIS's control of the towns along the upper Euphrates in Iraq enables it to maintain a territorial continuum between Iraq and the regions of Deir al-Zur and Raqqah, its strongholds in Syria.

Circled in red: towns along the Euphrates liberated by the Iraqi forces. Circled in black: ISIS strongholds along the upper Euphrates allowing it a territorial continuum with the areas it controls in eastern Syria (Google Maps)
Circled in red: towns along the Euphrates liberated by the Iraqi forces. Circled in black: ISIS strongholds along the upper Euphrates allowing it a territorial continuum with the areas it controls in eastern Syria (Google Maps)

5.    From the internal Iraqi perspective, the takeover of Fallujah, a Sunni-jihadist stronghold and a symbol of opposition to the United States and the Shi'ite-oriented regime in Baghdad, could potentially overcome the sectarian tensions between Shi'ites and Sunnis in Iraq, tensions which provided the fertile ground on which ISIS and radical Islam grew and thrived. Fallujah's great symbolic importance is crucial to the Iraqi administration's ability to reconstruct the city and its infrastructure, absorb the residents who fled, foster local leadership and keep local Sunnis from being attacked in revenge by the Shi'ite militias (accused of such acts when the population of Fallujah fled). If the Iraqi administration is successful, it will pave the way for taking control of Mosul. However, if the administration fails, it might signal yet again that it is easier to take over a radical Islamic city like Fallujah than to effectively control it over time.

6.    The takeover of Fallujah has reduced the extent of ISIS's territorial control in Iraq. It raises logistic and operational difficulties for ISIS and disrupts communications between ISIS in Iraq and ISIS in Syria. ISIS is expected to prepare itself for a campaign in Mosul, the "capital" of its Islamic caliphate, where it will wage a fierce battle to continue the existence of the caliphate (declared in the summer of 2014). The Iraqi security forces, the Shi'ite militias and the American-led coalition are currently preparing for a campaign to take control of Mosul, expected to be far more difficult and complex than the campaigns undertaken in Iraq to date.

 

Basic Information about Fallujah

7.   Fallujah, lying 54 kilometers (about 33 miles) west of Baghdad, is a stronghold of ISIS and radical Islam and a symbol of Sunni Muslim opposition in Iraq to the Shi'ite-oriented central government and to the West. At the end of Saddam Hussein's era it had about 300,000 residents. When the American army withdrew from Iraq at the end of 2011, there were about 270,000 residents, despite extensive destruction to the city (see below).

8.    It is estimated that after ISIS took control of the city, more than 80,000 residents fled (BBC, June 27, 2016). The displaced residents of Fallujah found refuge in three camps established by the Iraqi government west of Baghdad: in Amiriyat Falluja, al-Khalidiya and al-Habbaniya. They were not permitted to go to Baghdad for "security reasons," that is, fear that there might be ISIS operatives among them (BBC in Arabic, June 27, 2016). During the recent campaign the city's population had dwindled to between 50,000 and 60,000.

Historical Background of Fallujah

9.    In 1920 (during the revolt against the British occupation of Iraq) and in 1941 (during the anti-British pro-Nazi revolt of Rashid Aali al-Kilani) Fallujah symbolized opposition to the British. In 2003, after the American army invaded Iraq, Fallujah became a stronghold of Sunni-jihadist resistance to both the invading Americans and the Shi'ite-oriented Iraqi regime established in Baghdad.

10.   While the Americans were in Iraq a branch of Al-Qaeda was established there, headed by the Jordanian jihadist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The branch waged a terrorist-guerrilla war against the Americans, the Iraqi government and the Shi'ites. They focused on Baghdad in Anbar Province (western Iraq). The Sunni population of Anbar Province, which was hostile to the new Iraqi regime because of its Shi'ite orientation, became, at that time, a power base for Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and later paved the way for ISIS, which grew out of it.


11.   In 2004 there was fierce fighting in Fallujah between the Americans and the jihadists. The American attack on Fallujah was launched in the wake of the killing of four American citizens (representatives of an American security company) and the desecration of their bodies. The Americans tried to conquer Fallujah in April 2004, failed, and in a series of battles, at the end of 2004 they overcame strong resistance and took control of the city. The battles destroyed a large portion of the city. In 2008 there was another round of fighting to rid the city of jihadist operatives, but then as well the jihadists were only temporarily suppressed.

12.    On January 5, 2014, ISIS took control of Fallujah, which became its main stronghold in Anbar Province, threatening the security of nearby Baghdad. However, during the past year, when ISIS has been on the defensive in both Iraq and Syria, the tables turned and the ISIS operatives who held Fallujah found themselves under siege, attacked by the Iraqi security forces and bombed by the American-led international coalition. The siege and bombing caused significant destruction throughout the city and residents fled.

The Liberation of Fallujah – Overview

13.    On May 22, 2016, a campaign was launched to liberate Fallujah from ISIS. It was waged by the Iraqi security forces, especially the elite Iraqi counter terrorism force, with air support from the United States and the coalition. An estimated 30,000 Iraqi fighters participated in the campaign (Russia Today, May 22, 2016; Al-Jazeera, May 29, 2016), opposing almost 2,000 ISIS operatives. The Iraqi army had the support of Sunni and Shi'ite militias. The Shi'ite militias, operating under the aegis of Iran and Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force, played a secondary role in the campaign. Their main mission was to help the army seal off the city, despite Iranian propaganda which gave prominence to their role in the fighting.[2]

14.   The first stage of the campaign, considered the most important by the Iraqi army, focused on taking control of the villages and towns around Fallujah, ridding them of ISIS operatives and reinforcing the closure of the city. At the same time the American and coalition forces bombed ISIS targets inside Fallujah and in the surrounding areas, (a tactic used successfully in liberating other cities from ISIS control). The second stage began about a week later, during which Iraqi forces entered the city itself from several directions and advanced towards the center, where the administration buildings were located.

15.    The second stage lasted about a month, during which ISIS fought fiercely against the Iraqi forces (which were superior to them in number and weapons, and enjoyed aerial cover). ISIS based its fighting on sniper fire, ambushes, IEDs, suicide bombing attacks, and using civilians as human shields. ISIS also had a network of underground tunnels used for hiding, command and moving operatives from place to place both inside and outside the city.

16.     On June 17, 2016, the Iraqi army announced its forces had taken control of the center of Fallujah and its administration buildings, and had flown the Iraqi flag over them. Fighting continued in several districts even after the announcement. The main resistance to the Iraqi forces came from the neighborhood of al-Julan in the northwest of the city, where ISIS operatives had concentrated. On June 24, 2016, Iraqi army forces entered al-Julan from the northwest. On June 25, 2016, operational headquarters in Baghdad announced that al-Julan had been liberated and that the Iraqi flag was flying over its medical center. On June 26, 2016, Abdel Wahab al-Sa'adi, commander of Fallujah operations, declared the liberation of Fallujah from ISIS as complete. He said that 1,800 ISIS operatives had been killed (Twitter account of the special operations department of the Iraqi army, June 26, 2016). The same day Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi visited Fallujah and declared its liberation.

 

17.    Al-Jazeera TV, basing its information on sources close to ISIS, reported that after the takeover of Fallujah ISIS abandoned the posts it held around the city without fighting (Al-Jazeera, June 27, 2016). According to reports, on June 27 a mechanized infantry division of the Iraqi army began an operation to complete ridding the western bank of the Euphrates, west of Fallujah, of ISIS operatives. The objective of the operation was to take control of the region of Halabsa, west of Fallujah (Iraqi Media Network, June 27, 2016). In all probability ridding the area of ISIS operatives will take a significant amount of time.

The Fall of Fallujah – A Blow to ISIS's Image

18.    Both the Iraqi regime and ISIS considered the campaign for Fallujah as greatly important, and both accompanied the fighting with an extensive media campaign. ISIS propaganda had two main themes: ISIS was determined to remain in control of the city, and ISIS operatives were victorious over the Iraqi army. However, both were completely contrary to the situation as it developed, which strengthened the blow dealt to ISIS's image with the loss of Fallujah.

19.    On June 25, 2016, when the Iraqi administration announced the liberation of Fallujah, ISIS issued an infograph of its alleged achievements during the campaign. ISIS claimed that during the previous month it had killed more than 1,840 Iraqi soldiers and Shi'ite militiamen, destroyed more than 239 armored vehicles, and attacked three helicopters and three drones (Haq, June 25, 2016). The loss of the control of Fallujah and ISIS's heavy losses in personnel were not mentioned. Falsely representing the results of the campaign was intended to offset the damage done to its image with the loss of the city, but the true picture will probably become apparent to ISIS operatives in Iraq and Syria, and beyond.

[1]On the Syrian side of the border, across from Qa'im, lies the town of al-Bukamal. On June 28, 2016, fighters of the American-supported rebel organization "New Syrian army," tried to wrest control of al-Bukamal from ISIS. However, the attacking force withdrew from the area in the wake of an ISIS counterattack (Reuters, June 29, 2016). Taking control of al-Bukamal can cut off ISIS's remaining strongholds along the upper Euphrates in Iraq from the regions of Deir al-Zur and Raqqah in Syria.
[2]For further information, see the May 30, 2016 bulletin "Iranian Participation in the Liberation of Fallujah – Dr. Raz Zimmt," http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/21012.

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Security and rescue forces outside the airport in Istanbul.

Security and rescue forces outside the airport in Istanbul.

Kalashnikov rifle used by one of the terrorists in the attack (Twitter page of New Straits Times, June 28, 2016)

Kalashnikov rifle used by one of the terrorists in the attack (Twitter page of New Straits Times, June 28, 2016)

The first site of the attack: the security check entrance at the international terminal.

The first site of the attack: the security check entrance at the international terminal.

The devastation in the passenger hall (milliyet.com, June 29, 2016)

The devastation in the passenger hall (milliyet.com, June 29, 2016)

Three Russian officers who, according to ISIS, were killed in clashes with it in the area between Ithriya and Tabqa (Aamaq, June 23, 2016). A Russian spokesman denied the report.

Three Russian officers who, according to ISIS, were killed in clashes with it in the area between Ithriya and Tabqa (Aamaq, June 23, 2016). A Russian spokesman denied the report.

Small unmanned intelligence collection helicopter allegedly shot down by ISIS operatives on the outskirts of Manbij (Aamaq, June 25, 2016)

Small unmanned intelligence collection helicopter allegedly shot down by ISIS operatives on the outskirts of Manbij (Aamaq, June 25, 2016)

Abd al-Wahhab al-Al-Saadi (in a T-shirt on the left), announcing the liberation of Fallujah from the hands of ISIS (Twitter account of the Iraqi Army’s Special Operations Division, June 26, 2016).

Abd al-Wahhab al-Al-Saadi (in a T-shirt on the left), announcing the liberation of Fallujah from the hands of ISIS (Twitter account of the Iraqi Army’s Special Operations Division, June 26, 2016).

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announcing the liberation of Fallujah (Al-Iraqiya TV, June 26, 2016)

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announcing the liberation of Fallujah (Al-Iraqiya TV, June 26, 2016)

Iraqi Army soldiers celebrating the victory in Fallujah (Twitter account of the Iraqi Army’s Special Operations Division, June 26, 2016). Left: Iraqi Army forces in the ruins of Fallujah (Al-Arabiya,

Iraqi Army soldiers celebrating the victory in Fallujah (Twitter account of the Iraqi Army’s Special Operations Division, June 26, 2016). Left: Iraqi Army forces in the ruins of Fallujah (Al-Arabiya,

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi (center) visiting Fallujah, accompanied by senior Iraqi Army officers (Twitter account of the Iraqi Army’s Special Operations Division, June 26, 2016).

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi (center) visiting Fallujah, accompanied by senior Iraqi Army officers (Twitter account of the Iraqi Army’s Special Operations Division, June 26, 2016).

The emblem of ISIS’s new province symbol in the Philippines (Al-Bayan Radio website and openload.com file-sharing website, June 21, 2016).

The emblem of ISIS’s new province symbol in the Philippines (Al-Bayan Radio website and openload.com file-sharing website, June 21, 2016).

ISIS operative in Al-Raqqah codenamed Abu Walid the Indonesian praising the Islamic Caliphate.

ISIS operative in Al-Raqqah codenamed Abu Walid the Indonesian praising the Islamic Caliphate.

The three men accused by ISIS as being agents of the international coalition before their execution in Al-Raqqah. The execution was carried out by the three Southeast Asian operatives who appeared in the video (Al-Bayan Radio website and openload.com file-sharing website, June 21, 2016).

The three men accused by ISIS as being agents of the international coalition before their execution in Al-Raqqah. The execution was carried out by the three Southeast Asian operatives who appeared in the video (Al-Bayan Radio website and openload.com file-sharing website, June 21, 2016).


Main events of the week

  •  The main event of the week was the mass-killing attack carried out by three suicide bombers at the international airport in Istanbul. The number of fatalities is now 41 (updated to the morning of June 30), but it is liable to rise. So far, no         has claimed responsibility for the attack, whose operational characteristics are in line with the modus operandi of ISIS (which is waging a campaign of terrorism against Turkey). Turkish Prime Minister Yildirim said that according to security officials, the initial signs indicated that ISIS carried out the attack.
  • On the ground, ISIS continues to suffer blows in the areas under its territorial control in the various arenas. This week saw the completion of the takeover of Fallujah, ISIS’s remaining prominent stronghold in the Sunni Al-Anbar Province.  For ISIS, the loss of Fallujah, a city of symbolic importance, is a blow in military terms and a blow to its image. During his “victory visit” to Fallujah, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared that victory in Mosul was near. However, in the ITIC’s assessment, ISIS’s campaign against Iraq is far from over. Both the city of Fallujah and the Al-Anbar Province have not yet been cleansed of ISIS operatives, and ISIS continues to conduct guerrilla and terrorist warfare in Baghdad and in the various regions taken over by the Iraqi forces.
  • There are two other arenas where ISIS is facing a threat of losing important strongholds in the near future. In the Syrian arena, the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are advancing towards the city center of Manbij, an important ISIS stronghold west of the Euphrates River. In the Libyan arena, fighting continues in the city of Sirte, and the area of the city under ISIS’s control is shrinking. At the same time, the forces of General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan Army in western Libya, are cleansing the city of Benghazi from the presence of jihadi groups that control part of the city (ISIS and organizations affiliated with Al-Qaeda). 

 

Terrorist attack at the Istanbul international airport

(Overview updated on June 29)
  • On the night of June 28-29, 2016, a terrorist attack was carried out at Istanbul Atatürk Airport. The attack was carried out by three terrorists who, according to the Turkish Prime Minister, had arrived by taxi. According to an eyewitness, the three terrorists were wearing black jackets, where they hid their weapons (Reuters, June 29, 2016).
  • According to the Turkish media, the attack was carried out in two locations:
  • The first location was at the entrance to the international terminal. Two terrorists with Kalashnikov assault rifles opened fire on passengers waiting at the crowded security checkpoints. One of them began to move toward the passenger lounge. While shooting, he was injured by a security guard. As a result, the second suicide bomber blew himself up near a baggage scanner.
  • The second location was on the bottom floor, near the parking area. A terrorist began firing at the crowds rushing to their cars. Once the security force arrived, the terrorist blew himself up.
  • According to the Turkish justice minister, 31 people were killed and another 147 were wounded. Prime Minister Yildirim later announced that the number of fatalities had risen to 36 (updated on the morning of June 29; the number has since risen to 41).So far, no terrorist organization has claimed responsibility for the attack, whose modus operandi matches that of ISIS, which is waging a campaign of terrorism against Turkey. Turkish Prime Minister Yildirim said that according to security officials, the initial signs indicated that ISIS carried out the attack. The initial assumption prevalent among American intelligence officials is that ISIS or an organization operating under its auspices carried out the attack (CNN, June 29, 2016).

The US-led campaign against ISIS

Airstrikes
  • This week as well, the US-led coalition carried out intensive airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq, the airstrikes were concentrated in the area of Fallujah, in support of the Iraqi Army campaign to liberate the city. Airstrikes were also carried out elsewhere in the Al-Anbar Province, in the town of Qayyarah, south of Mosul (where the Iraqi Army is laying the groundwork for a future attack on Mosul), and in the area of Sinjar (in northwestern Iraq), among other places. In Syria, the airstrikes were concentrated in the areas of Al-Raqqah, Deir al-Zor, the area of the city of Manbij (in support of the attacking SDF forces), and in the area north of Aleppo.

Russia’s involvement in the fighting

  • ISIS’s propaganda machine published a photo showing three Russian officers who, according to ISIS, were killed in battles between ISIS and the Syrian Army. The three were allegedly killed in the area between Ithriya and Tabqa, where the Syrian Army was mounting an attack (Aamaq, June 23, 2016). The Russian Defense Minister’s spokesman was quick to deny the news. According to him, all the Russian soldiers whose photos were published by ISIS are alive and with their units (TASS News Agency, June 23, 2016).

Main developments in Syria

The campaign to take over the city of Manbij
  • The SDF forces continued their advance towards the Manbij city center.This week they took over Sharia Square, located about 1.8 km from the city center. On June 26, 2016, the SDF troops took over the Al-Hawatmeh neighborhood in northern Manbij. According to media reports, the SDF forces now control about 20%-30% of the city. In addition, the SDF troops took over the Manbij silos from ISIS. The silos, located approximately 2.5 km south of the city, overlook southern Manbij (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), June 24, 2016). An ISIS offensive to take over the silo area was halted by the SDF.
  • ISIS’s propaganda machine claimed last week that 157 Kurdish fighters had been killed in clashes with the Kurdish forces in the area of Manbij. ISIS also claimed that on June 22, its operatives had shot down a small unmanned helicopter used to collect intelligence.
The campaign in the Aleppo area
  • Fighting continues inand around the city of Aleppo. The Kurdish neighborhood of Sheikh Maqsud, in northern Aleppo, was shelled by the rebel organizations. There were clashes between Islamic rebel organizations and the Syrian Army in the neighborhood of Sayf al-Dawla, in southwestern Aleppo (SOHR, June 25, 2016). The rebel organizations reportedly foiled the Syrian forces’ attempts to advance towards several neighborhoods in northern Aleppo (Local Coordination Committees, June 26, 2016).
  • In a speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah (June 24, 2016), he highlighted the importance of the battle in Aleppo against the “terrorist groups.”Following are the main points that he made (Al-Manar TV, June 24, 2016):
  • Thousands of foreign fighters of various nationalities from around the world recently arrived in Aleppo via the border between Syria and Turkey, which is open to them. Their goal is “to topple what is left of the Aleppo region, and the city of Aleppo in particular.” Therefore, Nasrallah claims, “the fighting in Aleppo [means] defending the rest of Syria. It [means] defending Damascus, defending Lebanon, defending Iraq and defending Jordan […]”
  • Therefore, Nasrallah claims, “Hezbollah is obligated to be in Aleppo and remain in Aleppo.” He admits that the Aleppo campaign is “an exhausting campaign,” in which Hezbollah has lost 26 shahids since the beginning of June 2016, in addition to one POW and one MIA. However, he claims that the reports circulated by the enemies of Hezbollah about hundreds of deaths are exaggerated[1].
  • On the other hand, Nasrallah claims that since early June, 617 operatives of the “terrorist groups” have been killed in the battle for Aleppo.  In addition, over 800 operatives of these groups were wounded and many weapons were destroyed. With regard to these figures (which, in the ITIC’s assessment, may be exaggerated), Nasrallah claims that “[Hezbollah] has [only] 26 fatalities… In such a battle there should have been many more fatalities […].”
  • In the ITIC’s assessment, Nasrallah’s statements reflect the importance that Iran and Hezbollah attach to the takeover of Aleppo and its environs. According to an article by Ibrahim Hamidi, a Syrian journalist with access to the regime, Iran and Syria seek to regain outright control of the city of Aleppo. In contrast, he says, Russia supports the encirclement of Aleppo but believes that the Syrian Army does not have enough manpower to regain control of the entire city. According to Hamidi, the Russians fear that the takeover of Aleppo would involve heavy losses and would encounter fierce resistance from the US and the Sunni countries in the Middle East (Al-Hayat, June 24, 2016).
ISIS terrorist attacks and guerilla warfare
Claim of responsibility for the attack against Jordan in Rukban
  • On June 26, 2016, the Aamaq Agency, ISIS’s media foundation, reported that an ISIS operative carried out the suicide bombing attack in Rukban, northeastern Jordan, on June 21, 2016. The agency released a video documenting the attack (Aamaq, June 26-27, 2016).
  • A car bomb exploded on June 21, 2016, on a dirt road leading to the Syrian refugee camp located in the area of Rukban, in northeastern Jordan. This is a military base near a camp of Syrian refugees who are based along the border. The attack killed six members of the Jordanian security forces and wounded 14 others. As a result, Jordan closed the border with Syria and declared the Iraqi border area a closed military zone.
  • According to “Jordanian sources,” ISIS’s claim of responsibility is the first of its kind. According to them, ISIS has never before formally claimed responsibility for any attack against Jordan. According to these sources, ISIS-affiliated organizations in southern Syria, such as the Al-Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade and the Islamic Muthanna Movement, may have carried out the attack. They say that the time lag between the attack and the claim of responsibility is due to communication problems between ISIS and its affiliated organizations (Al-Hayat, June 28, 2016).
Series of suicide bombing attacks in the town of Al-Qaa in the northern Bekaa Valley
  • On June 27, 2016, four terrorists equipped with explosive belts carried out a series of suicide bombings in the town of A-Qaa, in the northern Bekaa Valley.One of the attacks was carried out by a terrorist on a motorcycle who threw a hand grenade at civilians near a church, and blew himself with an explosive belt. Three other terrorists were unable to cause casualties due to the response by the Lebanese Army (Al-Nashra, June 27, 2016).
  • According to Lebanese media reports, these attacks killed 15-20 people. So far, no terrorist organization has claimed responsibility for the attacks. Hezbollah condemned the attacks, noting that they were the “result” of the radical Wahhabi ideology, which was spreading in the area like an epidemic (Lebanese News Agency, June 27, 2016).

Main developments in Iraq

Completion of the takeover of Fallujah
  • The campaign for the city of Fallujah, which began on May 22, 2016, came to an end this week (at least formally). On 24-25 June, the Iraqi forces took over the Al-Jawlan neighborhood, in northwestern Fallujah, where ISIS operatives had barricaded themselves. On June 25, the Baghdad Operations Command announced the liberation of the Al-Jawlan neighborhood. Thus ISIS’s last stronghold in Fallujah fell into the hands of the Iraqi forces.
On June 26, 2016, Abd al-Wahhab al-Al-Saadi, the Iraqi commander of the operation, announced that the city had been completely liberated.According to him, at least 1,800 ISIS operatives were killed in the operation (Twitter account of the Iraqi Army’s Special Operations Division, June 26, 2016). As a result, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced the victory in Fallujah. He noted that the victory in Mosul was approaching, after which ISIS would be driven out of Iraqi territory (Al-Iraqiya TV, June 26, 2016). On June 26, 2016, the day the liberation of the city was announced, the Iraqi Prime Minister made a high-profile visit to Fallujah, accompanied by senior Iraqi Army officers.

 

  • Al-Jazeera TV, which relies on sources close to ISIS, said that following the takeover of the city, ISIS vacated positions that it had held around Fallujah without fighting (Al-Jazeera TV, June 27, 2016). According to a report from June 27, a mechanized infantry division of the Iraqi Army launched an operation to complete the cleansing of the west bank of the Euphrates River, west of Fallujah. The goal of the operation is to take over the area of Halabsah, west of the city (Iraqi Media Network, June 27, 2016).
Creating a territorial control base in preparation for the battle over Mosul
  • This week, the Iraqi Army continued to cleanse the town of Qayyarah, located 63 km south of Mosul, from the presence of ISIS operatives. Their (declared) goal is to prepare this area for future use as a launching point for taking over the city of Mosul. The military activity in this area is being carried out with air support by the international coalition (Al-Arabiya, June 26, 2016).
Repelling ISIS’s assault on Rutba
  • On June 27, 2016, ISIS carried out a failed attempt to retake the city of Rutba, near the Iraq-Syria-Jordan tri-border area. The city was taken over by the Iraqi Army on May 17, 2016. Iraqi police forces, with the support of Sunni tribal operatives, reportedly blocked an attack by ISIS from the west. A car bomb driven by a suicide bomber was destroyed before it was activated. Several ISIS operatives were killed and the rest fled (Al-Sumaria, June 27, 2016). ISIS, on its part, claimed that 26 Iraqi soldiers were killed in an attack carried out north of Rutba (Aamaq, June 27, 2016).

The global jihad in other countries

Libya
The campaign over Sirte
  • The campaign to liberate the city of Sirte from ISIS continues inside Sirte and is apparently nearing its final stages. According to reports from this week, an area of about 10 km2 in the city center is still under ISIS’s control. This area includes infrastructure facilities (the conference center and Ibn Sina Hospital) and a number of neighborhoods. Fighting still continues in this area.

 

  • During the battles, the forces fighting against ISIS took over government installations (the electric company’s headquarters and the radio station). They also took over an ISIS workshop for manufacturing explosives (Facebook page of the information center of the campaign over Sirte, June 21-22, 2016).
The campaign to liberate Benghazi
  • On June 22, 2016, the forces of General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan Army in western Libya which supports the Tobruk government, launched a campaign to cleanse western Benghazi from the presence of jihadi organizations that control part of the city (ISIS and the Shura Council of the Revolutionaries in Benghazi). This campaign was apparently inspired by two factors. The first is the success of the Government of National Accord forces in taking over large areas around Sirte. The second is the assessment that the jihadi organizations in the city of Benghazi, and ISIS in particular, are now in a weak position that should be exploited.
  • According to spokespersons for General Khalifa Haftar’s forces, the attacking forces took control of several areas in the western neighborhoods of Benghazi and are advancing towards the coastal road (Al-Wasat Portal, June 23-24, 2016; alarabiya.net, June 24-25, 2016). According to a spokesman for Haftar’s forces, ISIS’s Emir in Benghazi, whose codename was Ayyub the Tunisian, was killed in battle on June 24, 2016 (Bawabat Ifriqya al-Ikhbariya, June 25, 2016). ISIS, on its part, issued an announcement on June 24, 2016, claiming that its operatives had repelled an attempt by Haftar’s forces to advance in the area of the “Chinese Buildings” in western Benghazi (justpaste.it, June 24, 2016).
  • The city of Benghazi, located in eastern Libya, is controlled in part by jihadi operatives. Some of them are affiliated with Al-Qaeda, some are affiliated with ISIS, and some are independent. ISIS suffers from a position of weakness in Benghazi due to the separation of the city from ISIS’s center of control in Sirte, the city’s proximity to the Libyan Army loyal to the Tobruk government, and the large number of rival militias in the city. In the ITIC’s assessment, following the fall of ISIS’s control area in Sirte, ISIS’s strongholds elsewhere in Libya, including the city of Benghazi, are liable to weaken or even fall.


The battle for hearts and minds

ISIS announces the establishment of a new province in the Philippines
  • On June 24, 2016, an ISIS-affiliated website posted a video announcing the establishment of a new ISIS province in the Philippines.The video (which is 21 minutes long) shows jihadi operatives pledging allegiance to ISIS’s leader. The pledge was made by operatives of four so-called battalions, which previously operated as part of Abu Sayyaf (a terrorist organization operating in the Philippines, which was affiliated with Al-Qaeda until recently) (ISIS-affiliated Al-Bayan Radio website; openload.com file-sharing website, June 21, 2016).
  • The video shows several ISIS operatives from Southeast Asia: an operative codenamed Abu Walid the Indonesian, who praises the Caliphate of ISIS; Another operative, codenamed Abu Ayn the Malaysian, calls on Muslims in Southeast Asia to pledge allegiance to ISIS and promises to fight the so-called infidels; A third operative, codenamed Abu Abdullah the Filipino[2], lists the names of Filipino tribes that are considered infidels and those that are Muslim. The video then shows three Southeast Asian operatives beheading three men accused of being agents of the international coalition.

[1] Hassan Nasrallah mentions Hezbollah’s many losses in the recent battles with the rebel organizations around the village of Khalasah, south of Aleppo. At least 25 Hezbollah operatives were reportedly killed in these battles (SOHR, June 18, 2016).
[2] According to The Long War Journal website, the operative codenamed Abu Abdullah the Filipino is the Emir of ISIS’s new province in the Philippines.

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ISIS car bomb detonated against the SDF forces southwest of Manbij (Haqq, June 18, 2016)

ISIS car bomb detonated against the SDF forces southwest of Manbij (Haqq, June 18, 2016)

The Jaysh al-Fatah forces that took over the village of Khalasah from the Shiite militias fighting alongside the Syrian Army.

The Jaysh al-Fatah forces that took over the village of Khalasah from the Shiite militias fighting alongside the Syrian Army.

Tank shells and crates of ammunition that fell into the hands of Jaysh al-Fatah in the battle over Khalasah (Twitter, June 18, 2016)

Tank shells and crates of ammunition that fell into the hands of Jaysh al-Fatah in the battle over Khalasah (Twitter, June 18, 2016)

Syrian soldier injured by chemical weapons wearing an oxygen mask.

Syrian soldier injured by chemical weapons wearing an oxygen mask.

Syrian soldier injured by chemical weapons (SANA News Agency, June 16, 2016)

Syrian soldier injured by chemical weapons (SANA News Agency, June 16, 2016)

Iraqi Army soldiers in the Fallujah city center holding an ISIS flag (Al-Ghad TV, June 18, 2016).

Iraqi Army soldiers in the Fallujah city center holding an ISIS flag (Al-Ghad TV, June 18, 2016).

Iraqi Army soldiers in the Fallujah city center (Shabakat al-I’lam al-Iraqi, June 18, 2016).

Iraqi Army soldiers in the Fallujah city center (Shabakat al-I’lam al-Iraqi, June 18, 2016).

Iraqi Army vehicles damaged by IEDs in northern Ramadi (Aamaq, June 19, 2016)

Iraqi Army vehicles damaged by IEDs in northern Ramadi (Aamaq, June 19, 2016)

Tribesmen fighting alongside the Iraqi government against ISIS in the area of Qayyarah (Al-Sumaria, June 19, 2016).

Tribesmen fighting alongside the Iraqi government against ISIS in the area of Qayyarah (Al-Sumaria, June 19, 2016).

From the video showing the terrorist who carried out the attack in Orlando with the caption: “The Heavy Bill: America Pays the Price” (YouTube, June 15, 2016)

From the video showing the terrorist who carried out the attack in Orlando with the caption: “The Heavy Bill: America Pays the Price” (YouTube, June 15, 2016)

Indonesian-speaking operative codenamed Abu Nusaybah the Indonesian calling for the killing of Americans on Indonesian soil (Haqq, June 19, 2016)

Indonesian-speaking operative codenamed Abu Nusaybah the Indonesian calling for the killing of Americans on Indonesian soil (Haqq, June 19, 2016)


Main events of the week

  • This week as well, attacks on major cities controlled by ISIS in Syria, Iraq and Libya continued.On these three fronts, ISIS now faces the possibility of losing outposts of considerable importance in both military terms and in terms of public relations:
  • In Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) completed their encirclement of the city of Manbij, and fighting is currently ongoing in the city’s western neighborhoods. At the same time, the Syrian Army continued to advance towards the city of Tabqa and is now near the military airbase to the south of the city.
  • In Iraq, the Iraqi forces took over downtown Fallujah, seized the government buildings there and hoisted the Iraqi flag. Most of the fighting against ISIS continued in the city’s northern neighborhoods.
  •  In Libya, forces loyal to Libyan Government of National Accord managed to enter the city of Sirte. Fierce fighting is being waged in the city’s western neighborhoods between ISIS and the attacking forces. According to a spokesman for the Government of National Accord, the forces are now near the city center and are preparing to complete its takeover.
  • In order toalleviate the severe pressure that ISIS is under, and in light of the major impact of the terrorist attacks in the US and France, ISIS has launched a media campaign calling on Muslims worldwide to carry out terrorist attacks. The campaign is directed mainly against the United States, Western Europe, and Russia. Muslims around the world have been called on to “kill the infidels at home” and wherever they encounter them. In the ITIC’s assessment, the campaign is liable to encourage jihadi operatives worldwide to carry out terrorist attacks inspired by ISIS.

 

The US-led campaign against ISIS

Airstrikes
  • This week, the US-led coalition carried out intensive airstrikes in Syria and Iraq.  Most of the airstrikes in Syria were carried out in the area of Manbij, as support for the SDF’s campaign to take over the city. In Iraq, the airstrikes were concentrated mainly in the areas of Ramadi and Mosul. 

Russia’s involvement in the fighting

Russia accused of having attacked targets of a rebel organization supported by the United States
  • According to a senior US official, on June 16, 2016, Russia attacked targets of rebels supported by the United States in the area of the Al-Tanf (Al-Walid) border crossing (located near the Syria-Iraq-Jordan tri-border area). Several rebels were killed in the attack. The Al-Tanf border crossing was taken over from ISIS more than a month ago (May 13, 2016) by the so-called New Syrian Army, a framework of rebel organizations supported by the USA, which operates in eastern Syria. The loss of the Al-Tanf border crossing impairs ISIS’s logistical and operational communication between Syria and Iraq.
  • According to US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, the attack was carried out against forces that are fighting against ISIS and therefore this contradicts Russia’s assertions that the purpose of its involvement in Syria is to fight against ISIS. Moreover, according to a US Department of State spokesman, during a talk with their Russian counterparts, senior US Department of State officials expressed deep concern about attacks carried out by Russia in southern Syria against forces supported by the international coalition against ISIS (AFP, June 18, 2016).
  • The Russian Defense Ministry replied that the air forces of Russia or Syria had not attacked units of the Syrian opposition that respect the ceasefire and whose location was reported to the coordination centers of Russia and the United States (Sputnik, June 18, 2016). According to the Russians, during combat it is difficult to distinguish between “moderate insurgent” groups and Islamist organizations (Reuters, June 17, 2016).
  • In response to statements made by the US Secretary of State that the United States is running out of patience with “Assad’s Syria,” Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov said that Russia was the one losing patience. According to Gerasimov, Russia complies with all its obligations regarding the ceasefire and provides the US with information about the geographical locations of ISIS and Al-Nusra Front operatives. However, he claims that the United States has yet to determine which “armed groups” belong to terrorist organizations and which belong to the Syrian opposition (Sputnik, June 20, 2016).

Main developments in Syria

The campaign to take over the city of Manbij
  • Around three weeks since the beginning of the campaign to take over Manbij, the SDF forces took control of the area west of the city. In doing so, the forces completed their takeover of the rural area surrounding Manbij and the encirclement of the city. According to a report by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the SDF forces have taken over around 105 villages and towns near the city since the beginning of the campaign (June 14, 2016).
  • According to a report from June 19, 2016, operatives of the Military Council of Manbij, a military framework that belongs to the SDF, entered the city from the west and took over one of the squares on its the western outskirts. The forces fighting in western Manbij enjoy ongoing air support from the US and the coalition countries (Aranews, June 19, 2016).
  • ISIS, on its part, continues to conduct a guerrilla war against the attacking forces. A number of people were reportedly killed and others were injured in a suicide bombing attack carried out by ISIS operatives against SDF outposts in southwest Manbij (Khatwa News Agency, June 17, 2016). In the city itself, ISIS is sending out distress signals: ISIS operatives sent a letter to the Kurdish forces in the name of some of the city’s notables, asking them to open a safe route for its operatives to leave the city (Dimashq al-Aan, June 17, 2016). In addition, ISIS has introduced compulsory recruitment for adolescent boys in Manbij, under the slogan “Jihad is an obligation” (Dimashq al-Aan, June 18, 2016).
Syrian Army advance towards Tabqa
  • The Syrian Army, which took control of the Al-Rasafah junction last week, continues to advance along the main road to Tabqa (and Al-Raqqah). According to a report from this week, the Syrian Army is just 7 km from the Tabqa military airbase (located around 10 km south of the city).The Tabqa military airbase was taken over by ISIS in August 2014. Retaking the airbase would provide the Syrian Army with a military air base for carrying out attacks against targets in Al-Raqqah, ISIS’s so-called capital (located around 45 km west of Tabqa).
  • This week, fighting took place between the Syrian Army and ISIS in the Thawra oil field, located south of Tabqa. According to a report from the morning of June 20, 2016, the Syrian Army has taken over the oil field and the nearby employee housing (Al-Alam, June 20, 2016). ISIS later announced that its operatives had retaken the oil field after the Syrian Army and the “Shiite militias” had controlled it for a few hours (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, June 20, 2016).
  • The Syrian Army fighting in the Tabqa area enjoys intensive Russian air support. Over the past few days, as the Syrian Army advanced, Russian warplanes carried out airstrikes against ISIS targets in and around the city of Tabqa. The aircraft also dropped leaflets calling on the militants in the city to lay down their arms and turn themselves in (SOHR, June 18, 2016).
The rural area south of Aleppo
  • This week, battles took place in the rural area south of Aleppo between the Syrian Army and Jaysh al-Fatah, led by the Al-Nusra Front. The Syrian Army, supported by operatives from Hezbollah and the Shiite militias handled by Iran, tried to reclaim its control over the rural area south of Aleppo. The fighting was concentrated mainly in the village of Khalasah, south of Aleppo. According to reports, Jaysh al-Fatah took over the village and other places south of Aleppo and the Syrian forces suffered heavy losses.
  • According to reports from the SOHR, 86 fighters from the Syrian Army and its supporters have been killed in battle near the village of Khalasah and in other combat zones south of Aleppo. The fatalities include at least 25 Hezbollah operatives. In addition, several dozen Jaysh al-Fatah operatives were killed. The large number of fatalities among the Syrian Army and its supporters was reportedly due to massive artillery fire and car bomb explosions (SOHR, June 18, 2016). This could explain Qods Force Commander Qassem Soleimani’s arrival in the southern suburb of the city of Aleppo (Mehr, June 20, 2016).
Use of chemical weapons in the rural area east of Damascus
  • According to a report by the Syrian regime, “terrorist groups” attacked a Syrian Army position with chemical weapons in the rural area east of Damascus (eastern Ghouta). The attack was carried out on June 16, 2016. It is not clear which organization the report refers to (ISIS, the Al-Nusra Front, or another rebel organization).
  • According to a Syrian News Agency report, the chemical weapons that were used affect the nervous system and some Syrian soldiers suffered from suffocation and breathing difficulties. A video that was released shows Syrian soldiers wearing oxygen masks and choking. According to the Syrian regime, “terrorist organizations” attacked the Syrian Army in the past with toxic gases such as sarin. According to the regime, raw materials for the production of sarin gas have been smuggled from Turkey to “terrorist organizations” in Syria (SANA News Agency, June 16, 2016).

Main developments in Iraq

The campaign to take over the city of Fallujah
(Updated to June 22, 2016)
  • The Iraqi security forces continued their advance towards the Fallujah city center.After around four weeks of fighting, the headquarters of the operation for the liberation of Fallujah announced the takeover of the Nazal neighborhood in the city center (Al-Mayadeen, June 17, 2016). On June 17, 2016, after intensive fighting, the Iraqi Army reportedly managed to take over the city center and government buildings and to hoist the Iraqi flag over them. According to Abdel Wahab al-Saadi, commander of the headquarters of the operation for the liberation of Fallujah, the largest concentration of ISIS operatives is now in the Julan neighborhood, in the north of the city (Sky News, June 17, 2016).
  • Following the takeover of central Fallujah, Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi announced that the Iraqi security forces were close to completing the takeover of the city. According to him, only small “pockets of presence” of ISIS operatives remain in the city (AP, June 17, 2916). From past experience, we know that cleansing the “pockets of presence” of ISIS in the city and its environs is liable to take a long time, in view of ISIS’s skill in guerrilla warfare and the symbolic significance of Fallujah for ISIS.

 

  • According to US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, it is still too early to determine whether the Iraqi forces control the whole city and fighting still continues there. It seems that despite the declarations, the city’s northern neighborhoods are still controlled by ISIS, and the fighting continues in other neighborhoods (Bloomberg, June 17, 2016).
Fighting in other areas
  • Concurrently with the battle over Fallujah, fighting continues in other areas, including:
  • In and around the city of Ramadi, which was liberated by the Iraqi Army, ISIS continues to conduct guerrilla warfare against the Iraqi forces. This week, ISIS hit Iraqi Army vehicles in northern Ramadi with IEDs (Aamaq, June 18, 2016).
  • Nineveh Province: According to Iraqi Defense Minister Khaled al-Obeidi, the Iraqi Army has launched a campaign for the liberation of the town of Qayyarah, an ISIS stronghold south of Mosul. The Iraqi security forces are liberating the town and its surroundings with the support of around 700 local tribesmen (Al-Sumaria, 19-June 18, 2016).

The Sinai Peninsula

  • The information office of ISIS’s Al-Raqqah Province released a video entitled “The Foothold of the Conquerors.” The video shows an ISIS operative calling on the residents of Egypt not to be misled by “El-Sisi the Devil,” who is collaborating with the Jews and the Saudis against the jihad fighters in Sinai and the Muslim Brotherhood. The operative calls on the residents of Egypt to abandon democracy and fight in the the way of Allah and jihad against the “devils and tyrants in Egypt.” The speaker congratulates ISIS’s Egyptian Province on its actions and encourages it to continue the battle (Isdarat, June 17, 2016).

Palestinians and Israeli Arabs

  • The Ibn Taymiyyah Media Center, which is affiliated with Salafist elements in the Gaza Strip, released a video as part of a campaign entitled “Equip us.” The video shows a man codenamed Abu al-Muhtasib al-Maqdisi the Engineer speaking about the obligation of jihad and the possibility of participating in it through financial contributions. The speaker says that jihad through financial assistance is essential because the Mujahideen Shura Council in the Environs of Jerusalem (a Salafist-jihadi group in the Gaza Strip) is greatly in need of funds to purchase weapons. According to him, the lack of means and shortage of funds are preventing jihad fighters from carrying out dozens of attacks against the Jews, the enemies of Allah (Haqq, June 15, 2016).
The global jihad in other countries
Libya
The campaign over Sirte
  • Forces loyal to the Libyan Government of National Accord entered the city of Sirte this week. There were fierce battles in the Sirte city center and some of the city’s neighborhoods. According to a spokesman for the Government of National Accord, the forces are now near the city center (updated June 21 2016).

 

  • According to an announcement by Rida Issa, spokesman for the forces of the Government of National Accord, the attacking forces were successful in the battles that took place on June 21, 2016. According to him, the forces control Neighborhood 700, south of the city center. In these battles, 16 soldiers of the attacking forces were killed and 60 were wounded (Reuters, June 21, 2016). According to sources in the Government of National Accord, dozens of ISIS operatives have been killed in the past 24 hours.
  • On June 16, 2016, ISIS’s media foundation released a video allegedly indicating that the Port of Sirte wascontrolled by Islamic State operatives. The information center of the operation released its own video showing the Port of Sirte under the control of its forces. It appears that both sides are actually still having difficulty establishing their control over the port due to the intense exchanges of fire taking place there and in the surrounding area. However, the Libyan Coast Guard apparently controls the area off the coast of Sirte and is preventing the arrival of reinforcements for the ISIS operatives trapped in the city.
  • ISIS, on its part, continues its intensive fighting in Sirte’s western neighborhoods and neighborhoods near the city center. At the same time, its operatives are carrying out suicide bombing attacks against the attacking forces in and around the city of Sirte. According to reports by AFP, since June 12, 2016, ISIS operatives have carried out eight suicide bombing attacks in Sirte against the attacking forces. ISIS’s Tripoli province claimed responsibility for some of the suicide bombing attacks.
  • Along with the fighting on the ground, propaganda warfare is also being waged between ISIS-affiliated media and the information center of the campaign over Sirte. This week, the information center introduced radio broadcasts in Sirte and its environs at the same frequency as ISIS’s local station (Facebook page of the information center of the campaign over Sirte, June 19, 2016).

The battle for hearts and minds

ISIS is threatening further attacks in the US
  • In a video produced by the ISIS-affiliated Asawirti Media and released on June 15, 2016, titled The Heavy Bill: America Pays the Price, ISIS threatens to carry out further attacks against the United States. The video shows the terrorist who carried out the attack in Orlando, with a song praising jihad playing in the background. At the end of the video there is a caption: “Omar Mateen, Allah will receive him [as a shahid in Paradise], he did not stand on the sidelines looking at his brothers who are burned every day by the American Crusader planes. He made a resolute decision and placed his trust in Allah and carried out a martyrdom operation among the American Crusaders. He responded in kind […]” Then another caption appears, that reads “Oh Crusaders, what awaits you will be harder and more bitter” (YouTube, June 15, 2016).
ISIS calls on Muslims to carry out attacks against its enemies around the world
  • In the wake of the deadly mass attack in Orlando, ISIS’s propaganda machine is calling on Muslims around the world to carry out attacks against the enemies of ISIS, especially the United States and other Western countries. To this end, ISIS has released videos and posters threatening the United States and other Western countries. One of the posters reads: “Today in Florida, tomorrow in Berlin.” Another poster: “California, there will be battles in your home.”
  • ISIS’s Euphrates Province released a video showing foreign fighters threatening Western countries, Russia, and Muslim countries (Haqq, June 19, 2016):
  • One of the speakers, codenamed Abu Ismail the American, who speaks fluent English with an American accent, says: “America, you are at war with all the Muslims throughout the world who seek to restore the glory of Islam.” According to him, this glory will be restored by defeating and humiliating the US forces.
  • A Russian-speaking operative codenamed Abd al-Rahman the Russian threatens Russia: “Allah willing, we will kill dozens of you every day.” He calls on Muslims in Russia and in the “heretic countries” to help the Islamic State and kill the Crusaders (i.e., the Christians) “wherever you encounter them.”
  • An Indonesian-speaking operative, codenamed Abu Nusaybah the Indonesian, calls for the killing of Americans on Indonesian soil. Another operative, codenamed Abu al-Zubayr the Uzbek, notes that the US and Russia are the “heads of the infidels” and adds, “Allah willing, we will kill you in your homes.” A French-speaker calls for the killing of “the infidels” in their homes the way ISIS operatives did in France and the United States.
  • Forces loyal to the Libyan Government of National Accord entered the city of Sirte this week. There were fierce battles in the Sirte city center and some of the city’s neighborhoods. According to a spokesman for the Government of National Accord, the forces are now near the city center (updated June 21 2016).

 

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Spotlight on Iran

June 6-19, 2016 Editor: Dr. Raz Zimmt
Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force (center, gray hair) at the funeral of Reza Khorrami, an IRGC fighter killed in Syria (Tasnim News, June 7, 2016).

Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force (center, gray hair) at the funeral of Reza Khorrami, an IRGC fighter killed in Syria (Tasnim News, June 7, 2016).

Hossein Dehghan, Iranian minister of defense (Tasnim News, June 10, 2016)

Hossein Dehghan, Iranian minister of defense (Tasnim News, June 10, 2016)

Ali Shamkhani and Sergey Shoygu (ISNA, June 10, 2016).

Ali Shamkhani and Sergey Shoygu (ISNA, June 10, 2016).

Clerics from Qom meet with Hassan Nasrallah (third from right) (Mehr, June 8, 2016).

Clerics from Qom meet with Hassan Nasrallah (third from right) (Mehr, June 8, 2016).

Iraqis in southern Iraq vandalize a picture of Khomeini and Khamenei (Al-Arabiya, June 10, 2016).

Iraqis in southern Iraq vandalize a picture of Khomeini and Khamenei (Al-Arabiya, June 10, 2016).


Main Points
  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps suffered heavy losses in Syria. At least 13 of its fighters were killed in the fighting in the past two weeks, some of them officers.
  • The ministers of defense of Iran, Syria and Russia met in Tehran on June 9, 2016, to discuss their countries' continued military cooperation in the ongoing Syrian war.
  • Ali-Akbar Velayati, international advisor to the supreme leader, said the political-military balance in Syria was changing in favor of the Syrian government and its allies.
  • The Iranian foreign minister said that Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force, was currently in Iraq acting as a military advisor with the full knowledge of the Iraqi government. He said Iraq did not allow any non-Iraqi army or group to participate in the fighting in Fallujah. The statement was made in response to increasing criticism from both Saudi Arabia and Iraqi Sunni and Shi'ite politicians of the involvement ofthe IRGC in the campaign to liberate Fallujah. On June 10, 2016, supporters of Shi'ite politician-cleric Muqtada al-Sadr rioted in southern Iraq, setting fire to the offices of Shi'ite political parties and militias affiliated with Iran and vandalizing pictures of Iranian leaders.
  • Iran condemned the shooting attack in Orlando, Florida, without mentioning it had occurred in a gay nightclub.

 

General Information
  • Iran condemned the shooting attack in Orlando, Florida. Hossein Jaberi Ansari, a spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, said Iran condemned the attack in line with its principled policy in condemning terrorism (IRNA, June 13, 2016). Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani, head of the Iranian judiciary, also condemned the attack, saying no one could approve the killing of innocents (Mehr, June 14, 2016). He also did not mention it had occurred in a gay nightclub.
  • A source in the Iranian foreign ministry denied a report that several senior ministry officials belonged to the IRGC Qods Force. Javad Mansouri, first IRGC commander and a former senior official in the foreign ministry, told the monthly Ramz-e Obur that several senior foreign ministry officials, among them deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi, and former and current Iranian ambassadors to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, had formerly been operatives in the Qods Force. The foreign ministry denied the report as untrue (Mehr, June 15, 2016).
Iranian Intervention in Syria and Lebanon
  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps suffered heavy losses in Syria. At least 13 of its fighters were killed in the fighting in the past two weeks, at least four of them officers.
  • Hossein Dehghan, Iranian minister of defense, meeting with his Syrian and Russian counterparts in Tehran on June 9, 2016, said Iran would support a political solution to the Syrian crisis as long as a cease fire did not strengthen the terrorists. He said Iran regarded the regional and international fight against the takfiris, extremists and Zionists as a humanitarian obligation. He added that for Iran a solution to the crises in Syria, Iraq and Yemen demanded a determined fight against terrorism and the cessation of all political and financial support for the terrorist organizations. He thanked the Syrian defense minister, Fahd Jassem al-Freij and the Russian defense minister, Sergey Shoygu, for participating in the meeting and said he hoped the continuing cooperation between their countries would help restore regional security (Mehr, June 9, 2016).
  • Meeting with the Syrian defense minister, Dehghan said Iran regarded the continued support of the Syrian government in its fight against terrorism as its duty. He said Iran would continue supporting Syria in accordance with the request of its legal government, and would provide military advice and humanitarian assistance (Tasnim News, June 10, 2016).
  • Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security, also met with the Russian and Syrian defense ministers. He expressed his appreciation of the involvement of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and called on the international community to support Iran's efforts and to isolate terrorism-supporting countries. The Iranian media represented Shamkhani as "coordinator of Iran's political, military and security efforts with Russia and Syria" (ISNA, June 10, 2016).
  • Ali-Akbar Velayati, international advisor to the supreme leader, claimed the political-military balance in Syria was changing in favor of the Syrian government and its allies. Meeting with Wang Zhengyi, the head of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, he said that Iran, Russia and Syria were fighting the common enemy of terrorism, which threatened regional political security (Press TV, June 12, 2016).
  • At the beginning of June a delegation of the Society of Seminary Teachers in Qom went to Lebanon where they met with Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah. The members of the delegation, which was headed by Ayatollah Morteza Moghtadaei, deputy chairman of the Supreme Council of Seminary Teachers in Qom, expressed their admiration and support for Hezbollah's fight "against the Zionists and takfiri organizations" (Mehr, June 8, 2016).
Iranian Intervention in Iraq
  • At a press conference held in Amman, the capital of Jordan, Ibrahim al-Jafari, the Iraqi foreign minister, responded to Saudi Arabia's criticism of Iran's military involvement in Iraq. He said Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force, was acting as a military advisor in Iraq with the full knowledge of the Iraqi government. He also told the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram that Iran was in Iraq on a purely advisory mission, the Iraqi forces were waging the war alone and Iraq did not permit any non-Iraqi army or group to participate in the ground operation (Press TV, June 7, 2016). On another occasion, on June 10, 2016, the office of the Iraqi foreign minister said in a statement that the report of Soleimani's appointment as advisor to the Iraqi government was incorrect and that he was only one of the advisors, including Americans, deployed to Iraq. The Iraqi government allowed the presence of military advisors at the end of July 2014, when the anti-ISIS coalition was formed, according to the statement (Almasalah.com, June 10, 2016).
  • The declarations of the Iraqi foreign minister were made in response to the growing criticism from both Saudi Arabia and Sunni and Shi'ite Iraqi politicians to the involvement of the IRGC in general and Qassem Soleimani in particular in the campaign to liberate Fallujah. The criticism manifests the growing concern over Iranian influence on Iraq's internal affairs. Criticism has increased greatly in recent months, claiming that Iran's meddling in Iraq has deepened the Sunni-Shi'ite schism. On June 10, 2016, supporters of Shi'ite politician-cleric Muqtada al-Sadr rioted in southern Iraq, setting fire to the offices of Shi'ite political parties and militias affiliated with Iran and vandalizing pictures of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Revolution, and Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader (Al-Sharq al-Awsat, June 10, 2016).
  • The riots were a continuation of the protest of al-Sadr supporters that broke out in April 2016, when rioters temporarily took control of the Iraqi parliament building, shouted anti-Iranian slogans and condemned Iran's meddling in Iraq's internal political affairs.
  • Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister, strongly rejected the Saudi criticism of Iran's military intervention in Iraq, saying he did not remember Iraq's handing over its sovereignty to Saudi Arabia. He said Iran was collaborating with Iraq and helping it fight terrorism, and that Iran would leave when the Iraqis so requested (Fars, June 10, 2016).
  • On June 12, 2016, Nazar Khairallah, the Iraqi foreign minister, paid a visit to Tehran where he met with Hossein Amir Abdollahian, deputy foreign minister for Arab-African affairs. They discussed regional developments, economic cooperation and the fight against terrorism (ISNA, June 12, 2016).
Iranian Intervention in the Palestinian Arena
  • On June 5, 2016, the Basirat website, affiliated with the hardliners in Iran, posted an op-ed article strongly criticizing the Paris conference which met at the beginning of June to restart the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. According to the article, which was entitled "The conference for the destruction of Palestine," the organizers of the conference totally supported the "Zionist regime" while the participating Arab countries were proud of their ties to Israel. Their regional policies, stated the article, were coordinated with the Zionists' objectives, which was obvious from Saudi Arabia's policies in Yemen and Syria. Therefore the Paris conference had not met to find a solution to the problem of Palestine, but rather to destroy Palestine. If the Arab states really wanted to support Palestine, said the article, they had to provide the Palestinian "resistance groups" [i.e., terrorist organizations] with arms and fight alongside the regional resistance "against Western-Zionist terrorism."
Iranian Intervention in Yemen
  • Hojjat-ul-Islam Seyyed Ibrahim Raeisi, a member of Iran's Assembly of Experts, met with a delegation of Yemeni clerics. He told them that the war on terrorism was between "the front of the faithful" and the Saudi regime, which was fighting against the citizens of Yemen as an American-Israeli proxy. He said that the friendly relations between the peoples of Iran and Yemen were based on a common religious faith, and that Iran regarded its support of Yemen as its religious and revolutionary duty (Tasnim News, June 15, 2016).

[*] Spotlight on Iran is an Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center bulletin illuminating Iran's activities to establish its influence in the Middle East and beyond. It is based on reports in the Iranian media and written for the ITIC by Dr. Raz Zimmt, an expert on Iran's politics, society, foreign policy and social networks.

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Spotlight on Iran

May 22 – June 5, 2016 Editor: Dr. Raz Zimmt
Soleimani at the conference in Qom (Mehr News Agency, May 23, 2016).

Soleimani at the conference in Qom (Mehr News Agency, May 23, 2016).

Soleimani (front row center, gray hair) at the Velayat faction conference (IRGC-affiliated Telegram channel, May 27, 2016).

Soleimani (front row center, gray hair) at the Velayat faction conference (IRGC-affiliated Telegram channel, May 27, 2016).

Hossein Dehghan, Iranian minister of defense (Tasnim News, May 30, 2016).

Hossein Dehghan, Iranian minister of defense (Tasnim News, May 30, 2016).

Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan (Mehr News Agency, May 25, 2016).

Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan (Mehr News Agency, May 25, 2016).

Qasem Soleimani in the region around Fallujah (Twitter, May 25, 2016).

Qasem Soleimani in the region around Fallujah (Twitter, May 25, 2016).

Soleimani (left) and Pakpour (arrow) in the Fallujah area (Jahan News, June 1, 2016).

Soleimani (left) and Pakpour (arrow) in the Fallujah area (Jahan News, June 1, 2016).

Qasem Soleimani in Fallujah (Qassemsoleimani.ir, May 23-24, 2016).

Qasem Soleimani in Fallujah (Qassemsoleimani.ir, May 23-24, 2016).

Qorban Najjafi (Tasnim News, May 25, 2016).

Qorban Najjafi (Tasnim News, May 25, 2016).


Main Points
  • Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' (IRGC) Qods Force, speaking at a conference of Iranian clerics in Qom held on May 23, 2016, said that without Iran's support for the Syrian regime, ISIS would today control all of Syria.
  • Hossein-Amir Abdollahian, deputy foreign minister for Arab-African affairs, said Iran was determined to continue its "advisory" mission for the regional struggle against terrorism and regarded its support as vital for regional security and political stability.
  • At least four more IRGC fighters were killed in Syria in the past two weeks.
  • Iran welcomed the campaign to liberate Fallujah in Iraq, and stressed the participation of Qasem Soleimani and the Iraqi Shi'ite militias in the fighting. While the Shi'ite militias do in fact participate directly in the campaign, there is a discrepancy between the actual involvement of Iran and its proxies in the fighting, and the way that involvement is portrayed by the Iranian media. Meanwhile, senior Iranian officials rejected the criticism voiced by the Saudi Arabian foreign minister regarding Iranian meddling in Iraq. They claimed Iran's involvement in Iran was at the Iraqi government's request.
  • A spokesman for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad denied a report in the Saudi Arabian-financed London-based newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat that following a recent visit by a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) delegation to Tehran, Iran promised to transfer the organization $70 million from the IRGC's annual budget. 

 

General Information
  • Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force, speaking at a conference of Iranian clerics in Qom held on May 23, 2016, said that without Iran's support for the Syrian regime, ISIS would today control all of Syria. As to the presence of the United States in the Middle East, he said that the Americans were of the opinion that the Islamic Revolution was the reason for the collapse of America's regional power, and therefore the United States sought to defeat Iran and undermine the Iranian revolution.
  • He claimed that thanks to Iran the United States had been forced to abandon its regional objectives and that despite all the pressure exerted on them to the contrary, the Sunnis, Shi'ites and Kurds in Iraq were proud to consider themselves as having friendly relations with Iran. Without a doubt, he said, Iran was the victor in every Middle Eastern arena, even in those where its role was marginal (Tasnim News, May 23, 2016).
  • On May 27, 2016, Soleimani briefed a meeting of the Velayat faction of the Iranian parliament (Majlis). He reiterated his previous statements that Iran's firm stand against the takfiri organizations in Syria had kept ISIS from taking over the country, which would have also influenced the Christians, Sunnis and Shi'ites in Lebanon. He said that Iran had succeeded where a coalition of dozens of countries had failed: it had halted the advance of ISIS in Syria.
  • Regarding developments in Iraq, Soleimani said that Iran played an important role in the establishment of the popular militias and in the fight against ISIS. Iran, he said, would only act against the terrorist groups operating in Iraq if the senior Iraqi Shi'ite clerics deemed it necessary.
  • Regarding the situation in Lebanon, Soleimani said Hezbollah's enemies sought to destroy it, but it remained the most influential organization in the internal Lebanese arena and in the region.
  • Soleimani also strongly attacked the continuing Saudi Arabian attacks on Yemen and compared them to Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait (Fars, May 28, 2016).
  • Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan, commander of the Iranian army ground forces, said that the ground forces were not limited to the borders of Iran in carrying out their missions. In recent weeks, he said, special "advisory" army forces had fought in Syria alongside the IRGC's Qods Force. He added that the forces were waiting for the order from the supreme leader to liberate Jerusalem. "ISIS and Al-Nusra Front are minor enemies," he said, "we consider the United States and Israel as our main enemies and we are prepared to fight the big Satan" [i.e., the United States] (Fars, May 23, 2016).
  • Iraj Masjedi, senior Qods Force advisor, speaking at a memorial service held in Tehran for Iranians martyrs, said that ISIS and other Sunni Islamic terrorist organizations wanted to occupy Iraq and Syria to be able to reach Iran, the Shi'ite center of the world. Their objective, he added, was to occupy Iran and establish a unified Islamic Caliphate. He said the terrorist groups acting against the Shi'ites did not recoil from or hesitate to use any method to achieve their ends, including the murder of Shi'ite children, who would grow up to fight them. He said deploying forces to fight the radical Islamic organizations in Syria and Iraq was necessary for the defense of Iran's borders (Fars, May 24, 2016).
  • Hossein-Amir Abdollahian, deputy foreign minister for Arab-African affairs, said Iran was determined to continue providing its "advisory" assistance for the regional struggle against terrorism and regarded its support as vital for regional security and political stability. Interviewed by the IRNA news agency on May 30, 2016, he said that without Iran's support for the military and popular forces in Iraq and Syria in their struggle against terrorism, no place in the sensitive region of west Asia would be secure today.
  • Hossein Dehghan, Iranian minister of defense, told a meeting in Tehran that Iran was supporting Iraq and Syria to the best of its ability because it was committed to defending "any part of the Muslim community that was under attack." Iran, he said, sent military advisors to Syria and Iraq to defend Muslim countries because it considered Islam and Islamic states to be important .
Iranian Intervention in Syria and Lebanon
  • At least four more IRGC fighters were killed in Syria in the past two weeks.
  • Ali-Akbar Velayati, international advisor to the supreme leader, said Iranian-Russian collaboration in Syria was important because Iran opposed the plans of the United States and its coalition allies to oust Bashar Assad and/or divide Syria, which did not serve the interests of either the Syrians or the neighboring states. Meeting with the heads of the Russian center for strategic studies, Velayati reiterated Iran's position, which was that Bashar Assad was a sine qua non for Iran and he could not be replaced for the sake of solving regional problems (YJC.ir, May 23, 2016).
  • Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan, commander of the Iranian army ground forces, said he was of the opinion that in the near future the Syrian flag would fly over all of Syria. At a press conference held to mark the anniversary of the liberation of the city of Khoramshahr from Iraq in 1981, he said that the assistance the Iranian armed forces gave the Syrian army had made it possible for them to realize their objectives, and that developments in the fighting indicated that the Syrian army would soon be victorious (Mehr News Agency, May 25, 2016).
Iranian Intervention in Iraq
  • With the onset of the Iraqi army's campaign to liberate Fallujah, Iran rushed to announce its support. At his weekly press conference, Hossein Jaberi Ansari, spokesman for Iran's foreign ministry, said Iran supported actions in Syria and Iraq to liberate the territories occupied by the Islamic "terrorist organizations." Asked about Iranian support for the campaign to liberate Fallujah, Ansari claimed that every action undertaken by Iran was carried out at the request of Iraqi and Syrian governments (Fars, May 23, 2016).
  • Reports issued by the Iranian media and Shi'ite militia sources backed by Iran gave prominence to Iran and its proxies in the campaign to liberate Fallujah. The Iranian media recently reported that Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force, had arrived in the battle zone to help conduct the campaign for its liberation. On May 25, 2016, the Iranian news agency Mehr reported that Soleimani had visited the region of the town of al-Karameh, which lies to the northwest of Fallujah and which was occupied by the Iraqi army. According to the Mehr report, "Soleimani went to Fallujah to command the campaign for its liberation," and that while there he met with the commanders of the Shi'ite militias to discuss strategy with them.
  • One of the recent pictures shows Soleimani in the Fallujah area accompanied by Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the IRGC's ground forces.
  • To reinforce Iranian propaganda, sources affiliated with the IRGC posted pictures to the social networks of Qasem Soleimani in the Fallujah region. One of the pictures shows him in the company of senior Iraqi Shi'ite militia commanders. Several Iranian media outlets claimed he was photographed in the operations room conducting the campaign to liberate Fallujah. However, the fact that all the commanders shown in the pictures belonged to Shi'ite militias indicates that it was not the main operations room for the entire campaign, but rather only for missions carried out by the Shi'ite militias.
  • The Iraqi Shi'ite militias operated by Iran do in fact participate actively in the campaign in Fallujah. However, there is a discrepancy in media reports between the degree of the participation of Iran (and its proxies) in the fighting and the way that participation is represented by Iranian officials and media. The Iraqi army, especially its elite counterterrorism unit, apparently bears the main brunt of the fighting, as it did in the liberation of Ramadi. This time as well the Shi'ite militias apparently have a marginal role and are limited to enforcing the siege around the city.[1]
  • Hossein Jaberi Ansari, a spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, responded to the criticism of Iran's continuing intervention in Iraq voiced by Adel Jubeir, the Saudi Arabian foreign minister, on Russian TV. Ansari said that the Iranian military advisors commanded by Qasem Soleimani in Iraq were there at the request of the Iraqi government to support the struggle against terrorists (Tasnim News, May 27, 2016).
  • Ali-Akbar Velayati, international advisor to the supreme leader, also responded harshly to the criticism of the Saudi Arabian foreign minister. He accused the Saudis of destabilizing the region by supporting the takfiri organizations in Iraq (ISNA, May 30, 2016).
  • Qorban Najjafi, a Basij fighter from Golestan Province, who was wounded by ISIS fire in Iraq last month, died on May 24, 2016, in a hospital in Tehran (Tasnim News, May 25, 2016).
Iranian Intervention in the Palestinian Arena
  • On May 25, 2016, the Saudi-financed London-based newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat reported that according to Palestinian sources, Iran had promised to transfer $70 million from the annual IRGC budget to the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The decision to renew Iranian financial aid to the organization, after a hiatus of two years, was made, according to the report, after a PIJ visit to Tehran at the end of April 2016. The money is supposed to be transferred to the Jerusalem Battalions, the PIJ's military-terrorist wing. Khaled Mansour, considered as having close relations with the IRGC, was appointed as commander of the Jerusalem Battalions in the Gaza Strip.
  • PIJ spokesman Da'ud Shihab denied the report, but said that Iran's support for the organization was not grounds for accusations. According to a statement posted to websites affiliated with the PIJ on May 26, 2016, the author of the report was trying to represent the PIJ as taking sides in regional conflicts. That, according to the statement, was contradictory to PIJ policy, which always dealt exclusively with Palestine. In addition, the statement continued, the timing of the report, which was issued during the visit of a PIJ delegation to Egypt, was intended to block PIJ efforts to convince Egypt to ease the suffering of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

[1]Spotlight on Iran is an Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center bulletin illuminating Iran's activities to establish its influence in the Middle East and beyond. It is based on reports in the Iranian media and written for the ITIC by Dr. Raz Zimmt, an expert on Iran's politics, society, foreign policy and social networks.
[2]For further information, see the May 30, 2016 bulletin "Iranian Participation in the Liberation of Fallujah," http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/21012.

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Iranian Participation in the Liberation of Fallujah – Dr. Raz Zimmt

Published:

Qasem Soleimani, second from left, in the operations room of the Shi'ite militias engaged in fighting alongside the Iraqi army to take control of Fallujah (Qasemsoliemani.ir, May 23, 2016).
Qasem Soleimani, second from left, in the operations room of the Shi'ite militias engaged in fighting alongside the Iraqi army[1] to take control of Fallujah (Qasemsoliemani.ir, May 23, 2016).

Overview

1.   On May 22, 2016, Iraqi Prime Minister Haydar al-Abadi announced the beginning of a campaign to liberate the city of Fallujah from ISIS. Fallujah, located 54 kilometers (about 33.5 miles) west of Baghdad, is the most important stronghold still held by ISIS in the Sunni Anbar Province (western Iraq). The campaign is being carried out by the Iraqi security forces with the participation of Shi'ite and Sunni militias, and with American support.

2.   Since the beginning of the Fallujah campaign reports published by the Iranian media have emphasized the participation of Iran and the Iraqi Shi'ite militias operating under Iranian direction in the fighting. According to the reports, Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force, is present in the Fallujah area and plays a central role in conducting the campaign.

Qasem Soleimani in the Fallujah region after the campaign to liberate Fallujah began (Twitter, May 25, 2016).
Qasem Soleimani in the Fallujah region after the campaign to liberate Fallujah began (Twitter, May 25, 2016).

3.     The Iraqi Shi'ite militias, operating with the support and direction of Iran, are in fact participating in the Fallujah campaign. However, there is a significant disparity between the degree of involvement of Iran and its proxies in the fighting, and the way that involvement is represented by the Iranians. While the Iraqi security forces (especially the counterterrorism forces) have a main role in the fighting, Iranian reports give prominence to the role played by Qasem Soleimani and the Shi'ite militias. In effect, it would seem that the role of the Shi'ite militias is limited to besieging the city, and apparently the Iraqi regime does not intend to allow them to enter it. That is mainly because of American objections and Iraqi regime concern that the Shi'ite militias might take revenge on Fallujah's local Sunni population, which is liable to deepen the Sunni-Shi'ite schism and have repercussions for the continuation of the campaign against ISIS.


4.    This is not the first time that there have been differences between the actual involvement of Iran and the Shi'ite militias in the fighting and exaggerated reports in the Iranian media. After the liberation of Ramadi (the capital of Anbar Province) in December 2015 the Iranian media gave prominence to the involvement of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Shi'ite militia forces in the fighting, even though their role in taking control of the city was marginal. After the liberation of Ramadi the Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias attempted to ensure their inclusion in the campaign against ISIS. However, the central government in Baghdad opted to continue relying on American support and non-Shi'ite forces.

5.   In recent months there has been an increase in internal Iraqi criticism of Iran's involvement, on the grounds that Iran encourages the sectarian schism between Shi'ites and Sunnis and meddles in Iraq's internal affairs. Criticism reached new heights during the political crisis of April 2016 between Prime Minister Al-Abadi and the Iraqi parliament over the prime minister's proposed reform program. During the temporary takeover of the Iraqi parliament building by supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shi'ite cleric with political clout, Iraqi demonstrators shouted extreme anti-Iranian slogans and protested Iran's meddling in their country's politics.

6.   The limited involvement of Iran and the Shi'ite militias in the fighting in Fallujah is also the result of the decline of Iraq's strategic importance to Iran and the subsequent downgrading of Iraq as an Iranian priority over the past year. While ISIS has clearly become weaker in Iraq and its threat to Iran has decreased, in Syria Iran has been forced to cope with the continuing predicament of the Assad regime, and the addition of Russian involvement in the fighting. Thus Iran has become more attentive to Syria than Iraq. Despite the achievements of the Assad regime's supporters in recent months, the war in Syria continues and Iran and the IRGC are still faced with a significant challenge, whose importance in Iranian eyes is currently greater than Iraq's.

7.    However, despite the constraints and difficulties, Iran is still determined to position itself as a central factor in the continuing campaign against ISIS in Syria and Iraq. The involvement of the IRGC and the personal involvement of Qasem Soleimani in the campaign in Iraq are intended to signal that Iran still plays an important role in Iraq. They are also intended to signal that Iran is the most influential country in the Middle East and continues operating against its enemies in the Middle East, i.e., ISIS, the United States and Israel. Qasem Soleimani has personally become a symbol of Iran's regional power. The Iranian regime has, therefore, a vested interest in glorifying him both at home and abroad, even when the degree of his actual involvement in conducting the war in Iraq has significantly decreased.

 

8.   With respect to Iraqi politics, the Iranian attempt to magnify the role of the Shi'ite militias, even if their role is marginal, increases both the sectarian schism and Sunni alienation towards the central government, and makes it difficult to proceed with the campaign against ISIS. It also magnifies the concerns of the Iraqi administration and the Shi'ites regarding Iran's influence on Iraq's internal affairs. That could be seen in the reactions of both Sunni and Shi'ite Iraqi politicians to Qasem Soleimani visit to Fallujah.[2] The reactions came at a time when Sunni support for the Iraqi regime was considered of paramount importance, especially with the upswing of the campaign to rid Anbar Province of ISIS operatives, and with the campaign to liberate the ISIS stronghold in Mosul on the horizon.

[1]Al-hashd al-shaabi ("the popular mobilization forces"), an umbrella organization of Shi'ite militias supported by Iran.
[2]Three Sunni Iraqi lawmakers who related to Qasem Soleimani's visit to Fallujah claimed it could fuel sectarian tension and cast doubt on Baghdad's assertions that the offensive was an Iraqi-led effort to defeat ISIS (Reuters, May 28, 2016). However, the deputy chairman of the popular mobilization forces (the Shi'ite militias operated by Iran) told the Al-Sumaria News network that Iranian advisors had been fighting alongside popular mobilization forces since the beginning of the struggle, and that Soleimani was [in Fallujah] at the request of the Iraqi government and with the authorization of the Iraqi chief of staff (ISNA, May 29, 2016).

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