Tag Archives: Iran

Dr. Hassan Rouhani

Iran increasingly criticizes Turkey amidst continuing crisis in Syria

Gender segregation in universities: Sharp increase in number of university departments closed to women

New film documenting the life of Iran’s first woman race car driver causes a stir

Supreme Leader’s meeting with poets

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Highlights of the week

Nuclear policy: debate on past compromises rekindled
Iranincreasingly criticizes Turkey amidst continuing crisis in Syria
Gender segregation in universities: sharp increase in number of university departments closed to women
New film documenting the life of Iran’s first woman race car driver causes a stir

In a speech given by the Supreme Leader at a conference of top regime officials held on July 24, Ali Khamenei criticized the conciliatory approach adopted by the reformist government headed by President Mohammad Khatami (2001 – 2005) during the nuclear talks with Western countries, which manifested itself in Iran’s agreement to freeze its uranium enrichment in October 2003. Speaking about the Khatami administration, Khamenei said that it was precisely at a time when top regime officials had adopted a sycophantic approach towards the West and the United States that the president of the United States defined Iran as the “axis of evil”. Khamenei argued that the policy of cooperation with the West and the concessions made during the negotiations with the West had at one point emboldened Iran’s enemies to such an extent that he had to personally intervene in the matter. At that time, according to Khamenei, the Western countries were so audacious that they had objections even when the government agreed to operate as little as three centrifuges at a uranium enrichment facility. If the concessions had continued, Khamenei said, it would not have been possible to achieve any nuclear progress or engage in any kind of scientific activity or initiative in Iran.

The remarks made by Khamenei have rekindled the debate surrounding the nuclear policy during the reformist administration under the leadership of President Khatami. In response to the Supreme Leader’s statement, Abdolvahed Mousavi-Lari, who served as interior minister in the Khatami government, said that the Supreme Leader had been the one directly responsible for the nuclear policy during the Khatami administration. In an interview given by Mousavi-Lari to Fars News Agency, the former interior minister said that Iran’s conduct on the nuclear issue, which was the cause of problems that arose between Iran and the West, had been directly overseen and managed by Khamenei from the very beginning. He noted that a committee had been established under the Khatami administration to deal with all aspects of the nuclear program. The committee reported to Khamenei on a regular basis and all of its activities were carried out in accordance with his instructions. Dr. Hassan Rouhani, who served as chairman of the Supreme National Security Council and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator during the Khatami administration, was, indeed, in charge of the nuclear case. However, all issues pertaining to the nuclear program—such as who should come, who should leave, what had to be discussed, what had to be accepted or rejected—were part of the regime’s overall strategy, which was set by the Supreme Leader and to which top regime officials were committed (Fars, July 30).

One more reason why the debate over the nuclear policy during the reformist administration has reemerged is the release of Dr. Hassan Rouhani’s memoirs. Rouhani’s book, National Security and Nuclear Diplomacy, has recently been published in its third edition. In the book, Rouhani claimed once again that all decisions made with regard to the nuclear policy and nuclear talks during the Khatami administration had been made with the knowledge and approval of the Supreme Leader (for more details on Rouhani’s book, see Spotlight on Iran, Week of May 9-16, 2012, available at http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/20332).

Following the Supreme Leader’s statement on the conciliatory nuclear policy pursued during the Khatami administration, the government daily Iran strongly criticized the arguments brought up in Rouhani’s book, including the argument that the nuclear policy during the Khatami administration was supervised by Khamenei. An editorial published by the daily said that Khamenei’s recent remarks completely refute the claims of those who hold the Supreme Leader responsible for the policy of concessions and compromises on the nuclear issue. His remarks show that he was opposed to concessions from day one. However, he refrains from direct involvement in the affairs of the executive branch as long as he does not consider the policy it follows to be a threat or considerable deviation from the path of the revolution. Khamenei wants to let the officials elected by the public implement their own policy so that, when the time comes, they will not lay the blame for its failure on his doorstep, or argue that their policy has failed because they have not been granted sufficient powers. The process of concessions, diplomatic failures, and the cessation of nuclear development escalated to such an extent, however, that eventually the Supreme Leader was forced to intervene and keep the government’s policy in check.

The daily said that, not only does Rouhani continue to justify his unwise conduct, which can even be seen as betrayal, he also takes pride in it and argues that all problems faced by Iran stem from the fact that his policy has been discontinued. The arguments heard from Rouhani and his supporters, which go against the Supreme Leader’s stance of rejecting concessions and supporting continued progress with the nuclear program, are a manifestation of a large-scale plan designed by the enemies of Iran. The plan has a number of stages: increasing the pressure exerted on Iranian citizens by foreign powers just as the current government is about to complete its term, exacerbating the problems and emphasizing the dangers and threats (including the threat of war) faced by Iran, attempting to rewrite history and portray the reform period as one characterized by security and peace, bringing up the claim that the only way to rescue the country is to go back to the previous policy, running a candidate in the presidential elections who will be portrayed as a “savior”, and bringing the nuclear case back to the starting point—that is, suspending the enrichment of uranium once again to “build trust” with the West (Iran, July 29).

This week the Expediency Discernment Council’s Center for Strategic Studies, headed by Rouhani, released a special announcement in response to the editorial published by the daily Iran. In its announcement, the center argued that the editorial was hurtful and groundless, and that it took advantage of the statements recently made by Khamenei for political ends. It is obvious, said the center in its response, that the Supreme Leader’s remarks were primarily aimed at Western countries, which had shown hostility towards Iran and exploited the measures taken by the Iranian regime in 2003 – 2004. According to the Center for Strategic Studies, the author of the article published by the daily Iran used the Supreme Leader’s remarks without understanding them properly and with the purpose of causing damage to top reformist regime officials.

The Center for Strategic Studies mentioned several statements made by Khamenei in 2005 – 2006 which ostensibly show that he held a positive view of the nuclear policy pursued by the reformist regime. On October 10, 2006, Khamenei announced that withdrawal was an accepted tactic in times of war, and that the policy of concessions and withdrawals pursued by Iran in 2003 – 2004 had been necessary. On October 21, 2005, Khamenei announced that all the measures taken in the context of the nuclear program had been the result of cooperative deliberation and consultation. On August 15, 2005, Khamenei said that he had taken part at a meeting of the members of Iran’s nuclear negotiating team, commended them for their performance, and thanked them for doing a good job.

In its announcement, the Center for Strategic Studies stressed once again that all the measures taken by the Khatami government with regard to nuclear policy, including the Tehran Declaration, the Brussels Agreement, and the Paris Agreement had been agreed upon during meetings attended by all top regime officials. Instead of trying to divert public opinion and spreading unfounded and hurtful rumors, the current conditions call for action to promote national unity, the interests of the regime, and national security. Now, more than ever, social solidarity and national unity are needed to overcome the dangerous situation which the country is facing, the announcement said. Stirring discord and creating a toxic atmosphere serves the enemies of the nation (Aftab News, August 5).

Meanwhile, the conservative website Mashregh also voiced criticism of Rouhani following the publication of his memoirs. A commentary article published by the website said that the release of the book is particularly significant now that the nuclear talks are at the top of the international agenda. The book, however, has numerous weak points. Some of the weak points are technical (there is no index or explanations of technical terms pertaining to the nuclear program which the book mentions, a number of photos do not match the nearby text, and so forth), and some are fundamental.

Mashregh argued that, in his book, Rouhani took an unfounded, optimistic stance towards the West. This stance, according to the article, can be seen in the book’s recurring criticism of the pessimism expressed by top Iranian officials with regard to the West—and such criticism has been detrimental to Iran, Mashregh said. Reality has proven, the website argued, that the world powers only want to see the Islamic revolution defeated. During the negotiations he held with the West, Rouhani himself should have arrived at the conclusion that Western countries would not tolerate a nuclear Iran, demanding that its nuclear program be completely frozen. In the book, Rouhani himself admitted that Western leaders had expressed lack of willingness to recognize Iran’s right to produce nuclear fuel.

The criticism article went on to say that the association made by Rouhani in his book between the economic problems facing Iran and the concerns of the nation’s citizens on one hand and the nuclear issue on the other is dangerous and unnecessary. Making such an association serves the opponents of the regime, who use it to exert pressure on Iran. His explicit mention of the fears and concerns expressed by top regime officials during the nuclear talks also does not deserve to be published. For example, in his book Rouhani directly cites remarks made by the Supreme Leader on how Iran should conduct itself vis-à-vis the West, and on concerns voiced by top regime officials about the nuclear case being referred to the U.N. Security Council. Such explicit mention can also serve the interests of the regime’s opponents. The criticism leveled by Rouhani against current government officials, including President Ahmadinejad, and his allegations that they have adopted a policy based on illusions and lack of experience is likewise inappropriate, the article said (Mashregh, July 25).

Iran increasingly criticizes Turkey amidst continuing crisis in Syria

In recent days, shortly after last week’s visit to Tehran by the Turkish deputy foreign minister and a telephone conversation between the foreign ministers of both countries on the developments in Syria, Turkey’s regional policy has come under increasing criticism in Iran.

Last weekend top conservative cleric Ayatollah Nasser Makarem Shirazi accused Turkey that, through its policy, it serves Israel’s interests in the region. Speaking at a religious ceremony held on the occasion of the month of Ramadan, Makarem Shirazi said that, judging by the past actions of Turkey’s leaders, it had appeared that Turkey joined Iran in standing up to Israel and supporting the Palestinian people. It is now becoming apparent, however, that, contrary to that first impression, Turkey continues to hold direct relations with Israel and has backed down from its earlier stance. The top cleric strongly criticized the supply of weapons from Turkey to the Syrian opposition, warning that, should the current Syrian regime fall, the result will be an Israeli takeover of the Middle East (www.snn.ir, August 2).

The criticism voiced by the top cleric joins strong-worded editorials condemning Turkey that have been published in the Iranian press these past two weeks. The daily Jomhuri-ye Eslami discussed the reports that have surfaced in Turkey’s media about a possible improvement in Turkish-Israeli relations. The daily claimed that both countries are working to improve their relations and continue holding contacts at the highest possible level. The war of words that has been fought between politicians in both countries for the past two years is simply intended to create a positive image of a “new Turkey” among Muslim countries. In practice, the relations between Turkey and Israel proceed at the highest strategic levels. According to the daily, a top Israeli official even admitted in an interview given to a Turkish newspaper that, in the past two years, the two countries have continued holding contacts and consultations at the highest levels, and that the channels of communication between them have remained open in light of the common interest that these countries share. This state of affairs, Jomhuri-ye Eslami said, indicates that even though there are talks in Turkey about cutting off its political relations with Israel, they are only intended to improve the standing of the Turkish ruling party with domestic and regional public opinion and have nothing to do with reality.

Turkeyhas made tactical changes in its regional and international policy to adapt it to the new conditions in the region, snatch the flag of Palestine from Iran’s hands, and appropriate the banner of resistance against Israel. The president of Turkey imposed four conditions for normalizing the relations with Israel: an apology from Israel for the Mavi Marmara incident, compensation to the victims’ families, international inquiry into the incident, and ending the siege on the Gaza Strip. As time went by, these conditions shrank to just one: an apology from Israel. Now, however, even this condition has been removed, and Turkey is willing to normalize its relations with Israel even though the latter has already announced that it has no intention of apologizing.

Erdogan’s policy demonstrates that there is no significant difference between his policy and the one pursued by his predecessors, the only difference being that the secular generals took pride in their relations with Israel while Turkey’s politicians are currently taking a two-faced position. Erdogan’s efforts at mediation between Israel and the Palestinians are intended to leave the countries of the anti-Zionist resistance front with less maneuvering room. Allowing NATO to continue using its bases on Turkish soil and deploy an American missile defense system to be used against Iran is yet another manifestation of Turkey’s pro-Western and pro-Zionist policy. The Turkish policy is not limited to its ongoing cooperation with the United States and Israel. At the behest of the West, Turkey causes damage to its neighbors, particularly Iraq and Syria, by helping the Al-Qaeda terrorists. The coordination between Turkey and the West on the developments in Syria has put an end to Turkey’s claims about its commitment to fighting against Israel. The Turkey-Syria border has become a base for terrorists and agents of the Mossad and the CIA. The assistance provided by Erdogan to the struggle against the Syrian regime, which stands at the forefront of the struggle against the Zionists, is an indication that he continues to follow the path of Turkey’s secular leaders in an Islamic guise.

The day is not far off, Jomhuri-ye Eslami concluded, when the leaders of Turkey will come to realize that their country’s cooperation with the policy of the United States and the deployment of a defense system intended to protect the “Zionist regime” in the region comes at the cost of hostility with its Muslim neighbors and will eventually come back to haunt it. This is already understood by the people and political parties of Turkey; unfortunately, however, the same cannot be said of Turkey’s self-styled Islamist politicians (Jomhuri-ye Eslami, July 30).

The daily Siyasat-e Rooz also strongly criticized Turkey and its policy towards Syria. An editorial titled “Turkey can no longer be trusted” said that, being a Muslim country, Turkey could have had a positive influence on the developments in the region. However, the policy it is currently pursuing in the region, particularly towards Syria, will be a headache for Turkey and lead to domestic conflicts, popular protests, ethnic and religious clashes, and eventually result in the country’s dissolution.

Turkeyhas provoked numerous differences of opinion among the region’s Muslims, which is evident in its cooperation with the U.S.-led conspiracy that led to the dissolution of former Yugoslavia. The revolutions in the region have given the United States and the West an opportunity to stir separatism in the region by creating ethnic and religious conflicts. By conducting itself the way it has towards Syria, Turkey has lost the trust of other countries. Turkey under the secular administration was deserving of more trust than Turkey under Erdogan, Siyasat-e Rooz argued, because at least then it did not pretend to be following an Islamic policy.

The daily warned that there is no guarantee that, in the future, Turkey will not treat Iran the way it is now treating Syria. While Iran does enjoy military strength and popular support that will make it impossible for Turkey to plot against it, trust in neighboring countries is important, and Turkey has lost this trust. It can no longer be relied on as a friendly neighboring country, the article concluded, and if it persists with its policy, the day is not far off when it will find itself in chaos (Siyasat-e Rooz, July 30).

The Farda website also criticized Turkey’s current policy, arguing that even though the ruling party in Turkey is thought of as Islamist, its policy has nothing to do with Islam and it is in fact striving to extend its regional influence. A commentary article published by the website said that it is reasonable to believe, as some commentators do, that the Islamism of Turkey’s current government and Erdogan is in fact the manifestation of an American plan intended to establish an ostensibly Islamic faction that will support the Palestinians and the Islamic world, but will in fact stand against the Islamic wave in the region and become an opponent of the Islamic revolution. If Turkey truly did support the Palestinians and the Muslim nations, it would cut off its ties with Israel instead of fighting Syria, the leader of the anti-Israeli struggle, and it would provide assistance to the popular uprising in Saudi Arabia and Jordan instead of remaining indifferent to the suppression of the uprising in Bahrain (Farda, August 4).

Gender segregation in universities: sharp increase in number of university departments closed to women

Mehr News Agency reported this week that 36 universities in Iran have closed 77 fields of study to women this year, particularly engineering programs. According to the report, there has been a sharp increase this year in the number of fields of study to which women are not permitted to apply compared to the previous year, when women could not register for only two fields of study (mine engineering and agricultural engineering). The University of Tehran, for instance, is not accepting women to two engineering departments; the University of Arak is not accepting women to the departments of English, technological education, computer science, chemistry engineering, industrial engineering, construction engineering, mechanical engineering, agricultural engineering, and chemistry; the University of Esfahan is not accepting women to the departments of political science, accounting, business administration, public management, industrial management, electrical engineering, construction engineering, transportation engineering, and English translation; the University of Ardabil is not accepting women to the departments of public psychology, geography and city planning, business administration, statistics, accounting, theoretical physics, nuclear physics, electrical engineering, construction engineering, computer engineering, mechanical engineering, agricultural engineering, and others (Mehr, August 6).

A spokesman for the Petroleum University of Technology, which has a number of branches across Iran and does not accept women to several departments, said this week that the university is supposed to deliver graduates in accordance with the needs of the Petroleum Ministry and its affiliated companies, which have stated this year that they currently do not require women graduates, only men graduates. He added that those employed in the petroleum industry work in difficult conditions that are inappropriate for women, and that public opinion polls conducted by the university among women students who attend it indicate that they are not satisfied with the studies in the departments to which they have been accepted (ISNA, August 6).

At the same time, HRANA, a news agency affiliated with activists for human rights in Iran, reported this week that over 60 universities across Iran will become gender segregated in the coming year, and that there will be separate classes for men and women in nearly 20 percent of academic departments (www.hra-news.org, August 5).

These reports are indicative of the increasing efforts made by the authorities to increase gender segregation in higher education institutions, bringing it in line with what is practiced in Iran’s primary and secondary schools. In recent years top Iranian officials and conservative clerics have called for the expansion of gender segregation in universities. In November 2009, Habib Mohammad-Nejad, the deputy on research affairs of the Supreme Leader’s representative to the universities, said that many studies indicated that co-education in universities was not beneficial to the students’ success, arguing that the students’ grades would improve as a result of gender segregation in universities. He suggested conducting a pilot study in a large university whose scientific level is high to test the impact of gender segregation on academic success rate. His views were echoed by the Supreme Leader’s representative in Tehran’s Khaje Nasir Toosi University of Technology, who said that co-education led to the formation of dangerous connections between male and female students. He noted that young people have urges and therefore cannot sustain normal relations with each other.

In addition, more and more voices are calling for a limit on the admittance of women to universities on the backdrop of the ongoing increase in the share of women among the total number of students in Iran. The relatively high proportion of women (who make up over 60 percent of Iran’s total student population) compared to men in higher education institutions is to a large extent the result of the fact that many men prefer to enter the workforce as soon as they complete their secondary education instead of applying to universities, many of whose graduates remain unemployed. Many women, on the other hand, consider academic education to be a way to achieve social mobility.

In recent years some of the universities have started setting admission quotas for women. In 2006 Iran’s health minister decided to put a limit on the number of women who could be accepted into medicine programs at 30 universities and medical colleges across the country. The minister claimed that restrictions needed to be imposed on the number of women accepted into medicine programs because the universities were unable to provide sufficient facilities and dormitories for women students. In 2007 a number of Majles members submitted a bill to impose a quota of at least 30 percent for both men and women in university programs. According to the Majles members who submitted the bill, the ongoing increase in the number of women studying in the universities could jeopardize Iranian society and the “sanctity of the family”. They argued that, among other things, the increase in the proportion of women students led to an increase in the age of marriage, growing divorce rates, and a waste of state funds, seeing as many women university graduates cannot go on to work in their chosen field because their father or husband will not let them do so. The bill was also supported by a number of women Majles members, who said that traditional gender roles had to be respected when choosing areas of study for men and women (Rooz Online, February 6, 2007).

A report released in 2007 by the Majles Research Center showed that there was 23-percent increase in the number of women applying to universities in the past two decades, and that the number of women who successfully passed the university entrance exams doubled. The report warned that this trend could lead to social, economic, and cultural imbalance between women and men, and that it created various problems, such as the need to secure the university dormitories and protect the physical well-being of the women students against social dangers (http://rc.majlis.ir/fa/report/show/733423).

New film documenting the life of Iran’s first woman race car driver causes a stir

Over the past few weeks, public and political controversy has been simmering over a new Iranian film project. Javad Shamaqdari, the deputy minister of Islamic guidance on cinema affairs and chairman of the Cinema Organization, recently confirmed that Asadollah Niknejad, an Iranian-born film director who has lived in Los Angeles for several years, is currently directing the documentary film Laleh. The film follows the life of Laleh Seddiq, Iran’s first woman race car driver, who is nicknamed “Little Schumacher” after the German Formula 1 world champion Michael Schumacher.

The film’s budget is estimated at 70 billion rials (over 3.5 million dollars), a significant portion of which will come from the Center for Documentary and Experimental Cinema in Iran. The chairman of the center recently reported that it will provide 25 billion rials towards the cost of the movie, and that U.S. and Canadian companies will pick up the rest of the tab.

According to the creators of Laleh, the film is intended to counter the negative image of Iran in Western films and show a different picture of Iranian women abroad. However, the content of the film, the fact that it has been handed to Niknejad to direct, and its enormous budget compared to Iranian films have come under intense criticism.

Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor-in-chief of the daily Keyhan, strongly condemned the film project and referred to its creator, Asadollah Niknejad, as a “creator of pornographic movies”. An editorial published by Shariatmadari said that a girl who takes part in car racing cannot serve as a symbol and example for the Iranian woman, and that Laleh Seddiq is exactly the kind of model that the United States and its allies wish for Iran. It is inappropriate to give five billion tomans from the national budget to a creator of pornographic movies who lives in Hollywood so that he can realize the destructive Western values, Shariatmadari wrote. Offending the image of the Iranian Muslim woman is not the right way of fighting the negative propaganda in which the United States and Western countries engage against Iranian women (Keyhan, July 23). Hojjat-ol-Eslam Mohammad Hassan Rahimian, the Supreme Leader’s representative to the Martyrs Foundation, criticized the movie as well. He said that there are many mothers and martyrs’ wives living in Iran who are a model for Iranian Muslim women, and who can be shown to the world (Fars, August 2).

Members of the Majles Culture Committee, which held a special meeting on Laleh attended by the minister of Islamic guidance and his deputy for cinema affairs, also had reservations about the new project. According to committee member Ahmad Salek Kashani, fragments of the film shown to committee members indicate that it is not compatible with the values of religion, Islamic culture, and the Islamic dress code for women. He also said that he opposed the decision to have the film directed by Niknejad and allocate such a big budget for its production (Mashregh News, August 1).

Ali Motahari, also a member of the committee, argued that Islamic Guidance Minister Mohammad Hosseini and his deputy, who had appeared before the committee members, were unable to convince them that the film was necessary. He said that all the committee members are against the movie, being of the opinion that its content is inappropriate and that a race car champion cannot be portrayed as a symbol of the Iranian woman. Motahari even threatened to take action to impeach the minister of Islamic guidance if his ministry did not agree to cancel the project.

The new movie is also drawing criticism from the local film industry due to its high cost. In press interviews given in recent days, several filmmakers claimed that while the Iranian cinema is in a severe economic distress and the Ministry of Islamic Guidance is unable to keep the promises it has given to Iranian filmmakers, it is unreasonable to allocate such a big budget towards the making of the film Laleh.

President Ahmadinejad’s name was dragged into the controversy surrounding Laleh when it was reported that he had met with Asadollah Niknejad and entrusted him with the direction of the film. Jamal Shurjeh, a member of the Supreme Cinema Council, said in an interview to Mehr News Agency that Niknejad had met with Ahmadinejad during one of his annual visits to the U.N. General Assembly in New York, pitched him the idea for the film, and gained his support for the project (Mehr, July 18).

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The Quds Force, an elite unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, spearheads Iran’s global terrorist campaign.

Published: 07/08/2012

Ghasem Soleimani, Qods Force commander, bows his head to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (Picture from the Asriran.com website, July 3, 2011).

Above the rifle is a Qur'an quotation: ''Against them make ready your strength to the utmost of your power...'' (Surah 8, An-Anfal, Verse 60). For the Muslim militias, it is the call to prepare a military force to wage war against an enemy.

Qasem Soleimani (right) with a colleague during the Iran-Iraq War (basijpress.ir)

Qasem Soleimani in a recent photo, wearing his major general insignia (Al-Quds newspaper, November 12, 2011)

Qasem Soleimani with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (Picture from the aqa313.blogfa.com website)

''We are all Qasem Soleimani'' (bachehayeghalam.ir)

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Overview

1. A series of terrorist attacks and attempted terrorist attacks in various countries around the world in recent yearshave again shown that Israel is being subjected to a global Iranian terrorist campaign. The attacks, which take a variety of forms, are organized and orchestrated by the Quds Force, an elite unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Hezbollah serves as the Quds Force's main proxy abroad for its terrorist missions. In our assessment, the terrorist attack targeting the bus of Israeli tourists in Bulgaria was carried out by Hezbollah as part of the Iranian campaign and from their point of view was the most successful to date (five Israelis, the Bulgarian bus driver and the terrorist were killed and 36 Israeli tourists were wounded.)

2. The objective of Iran's terrorist campaign, which accelerated during the past year, has several objectives. One is to counteract what Iran feels is a covert campaign being conducted against it. In concrete terms, its goal is to exact revenge for the deaths of Iranian nuclear scientists and senior Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, which Iran and Hezbollah attribute to Israel. Thus Iran seeks to deter Israel from taking other action against it andto strengthen its position in the campaign against the United States and Israel. It also seeks to signal that it has the operational capabilities to respond strongly should it be attacked.

3. During the past years Iran and Hezbollah have targeted Israeli diplomats posted to various countries, Israeli tourists and in at least one instance Jewish public figures (in Azerbaijan). In addition, the Quds Force has also tried to carry out terrorist attacks against Saudi Arabian and Bahraini targets, the most conspicuous of which was the attempted assassination of the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States on American soil.

4. To date, attacks in the Iranian terrorist campaign against Israel (accelerating since May 2011) have been carried out in several countries, among them Bulgaria, Cyprus, Kenya, Azerbaijan, Indian, Georgia, Thailand and Turkey (See the Appendix for details). In most instances the attacks failed or were prevented, either at the planning and intelligence-collecting stages or during implementation. In some instances local security services found Iranian and Hezbollah footprints, which could havecauseddiplomatic incidents and complicated Iran's relations with the various countries. In India in February 2012, terrorist operatives affixed a magnetic explosive device to the car of the representative of the Israeli ministry of defense, and his wife, who was driving the car, was wounded in the ensuing explosion.

5. In retrospect, Iran has shown both daring and the determination to continue its efforts to attack Israeli targets despite a series of failures. The successful Hezbollah attack in Bulgaria, which ended the series of operational failures, is liable, in our assessment, to encourage Iran to continue and even intensify its terrorist campaign. According to the Wall Street Journal, "Iran has developed plans to disrupt international oil trade, including though attacks on oil platforms and tankers," both inside and outside the Straits of Hormuz, in retaliation for international sanctions and other pressure exerted on it.^[1]

The Structure of the Paper

6. This study is the first part of a comprehensive paper on Iran's terrorist and subversive activities around the globe and of its export of the Islamic Revolution, with emphasis on the Quds Force in carrying out operations around the world during the last decade. Two additional studies will be issued dealing with the main arenas of Iranian terrorist activity (by national and continental distribution) and an analysis of the particular methods employed by Iranian terrorism. Another study will deal with the terrorist activity of Lebanese Hezbollah, which serves the main proxy for both the Quds Force and the Iranian regime.

7. This study is composed of two parts:

Part One: Introduction – Iranian terrorism and its objectives

1) Iran as a global exporter of terrorism

2) The ideological dimension: the concept of exporting the Iranian Islamic Revolution

3) The role of the Shi'ite communities in the Iranian campaign of terrorism and subversion

4) The regional dimension: exporting the revolution in view of the upheaval in the Arab world

Part Two: The Quds Force

1) Overview

2) Objectives and activity

3) The founding of the Quds Force

4) Structure and organization

5) Unit 400

6) Profile of Ghasem Soleimani, Quds Force commander

7) Profile of Ismail Qa'ani, Quds Force deputy commander

8) Interim balance sheet of Quds Force activity

Part Three: Appendix: Terrorist attacks carried out by the Quds Force and Hezbollah against Israeli and Jewish targets around the globe since May 2011.

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^{^[1]} http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444097904577537221896965492.html

Khamenei at last week’s conference of top regime officials

‘’Two children is enough’’, a poster intended to encourage birth planning (www.mashreqhnews.ir)

In light of foreign currency crisis, restrictions imposed on selling foreign currency to Iranians traveling abroad

Mortazavi and Ahmadinejad

‘’Iranian President’’, one of the blocked blogs (http://www.iranian-president.blogfa.com)

Iranian athletes at the Olympics (Source: www.olympic.ir, the website of Iran’s Olympic Committee)

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Highlights of the week

Regime makes increasing use of Islamic narratives as economic crisis escalates
Iran gives up birth planning following Supreme Leader’s statement
In light of foreign currency crisis, restrictions imposed on selling foreign currency to Iranians traveling abroad
Judiciary vs. president: appointments revoked, pro-Ahmadinejad bloggers arrested

Regime makes increasing use of Islamic narratives as economic crisis escalates

In recent weeks the Iranian regime has made increasing use of religious arguments and Islamic narratives as part of its efforts to mobilize public support in the escalating economic crisis and the tightening sanctions by the West.

In a speech given by the Supreme Leader at a conference of top regime officials held last week, July 24, Ali Khamenei compared the current situation in Iran to the situation faced by the Muslim community at the time of the battles of Badr, 623 A.D., and Khaybar, 629 A.D., fought by Prophet Muhammad in the early days of Islam. According to Khamenei, it was a situation fraught with threats and challenges, but it wasn’t a dead end. He noted that, during the Battle of Badr, the Muslims had limited capabilities compared to the capabilities of their enemies, which were so much better that in some areas there could hardly be any comparison. Be that as it may, the Muslims were ultimately able to overcome their enemies. During the Battle of Khaybar, the Muslims once again faced tremendous difficulties and the enemy offered stubborn resistance, but the Muslims overcame them as well. The implication of the conditions that prevailed at the time of the Badr and Khaybar battles is that the challenge is there but it can be surmounted, the Supreme Leader said. This is not the first time in recent months that Khamenei has compared Iran’s current situation to the situation of the Muslim community during the Badr and Khaybar campaigns at the time of Prophet Muhammad. In a speech given by Khamenei during a convention held in the city of Qom on January 9, the Supreme Leader said that the conditions that currently prevail in Iran are the same conditions that prevailed in Badr and Khaybar, and that they are what makes it possible for the Iranian nation to see the signs of victory with their own eyes.

Khamenei went on to call for the adoption of an “economy of resistance” to contend with the economic sanctions imposed on Iran. Moderate consumption and avoidance of excess spending and extravagance constitute a “jihadist movement”, and that is the path which organizations and citizens need to follow. A person who consumes in moderation and avoids extravagance can proclaim himself to be a devotee of jihad, Khamenei said (the Supreme Leader’s website, www.khamenei.ir, July 24).

Last week, Hojjat-ol-Eslam Mohammad Raja’i, a member of the Majles Economy Committee, spoke about the remarks made by the Supreme Leader on the need to adopt an “economy of resistance”, saying that the economic model referred to by Khamenei is the same economic model adopted by Prophet Muhammad to deal with the challenges he faced in the early days of Islam. In an interview given to Fars News Agency, Raja’i said that the existence of economic problems and inflation in Iran is undeniable. Adopting the economic model of the prophet, according to Raja’i, is intended to advance the objectives of the Islamic revolution and overcome the challenges faced by Iran. He stressed that the current situation in Iran is not as bad as it was in Prophet Muhammad’s time, but that it would be advisable to adopt the same economic model used by the Prophet to contend with the current challenges (Fars, July 26).

Ayatollah Ja’far Sobhani, the Friday prayer leader in the city of Qom, also drew on the legacy of Prophet Muhammad to provide a boost to the determination of his followers. During his Friday sermon, Sobhani traced a parallel between the sanctions imposed on Iran to the Sha’b Abu Taleb boycott imposed by the Quraysh tribe on the Prophet’s supporters as his message was beginning to spread in an attempt to force them to withdraw their support for him. The sanctions imposed on Iran are the price the Iranians have to pay for their independence, the top cleric said, and the Prophet, too, was able to persevere for three years in conditions of extreme boycott (Saham News, July 14). Raja News, a website affiliated with the radical right wing of the conservative camp, also recently discussed the Islamic historical parallel to Iran’s current situation. In an article published by the website, the historian Dr. Mohammad-Hossein Rajabi Davani argued that Iran’s current situation is reminiscent of the situation of the Muslim community during the battles of Badr and Khaybar rather than the situation during the Sha’b Abu Taleb boycott (see Spotlight on Iran, issue no. 259).

The use of Islamic narratives to justify the need for continued resistance in the face of the pressure exerted by the West could also be seen in an article published this week by the conservative website Borhan (July 25), titled “Why resistance?” (Chera moqavamat?). The author of the article discussed the question of whether the current conditions in Iran require adopting a strategy based on “resistance of faith” (moqavamat-e imani) or surrendering to Western demands in order to rescue Iran from the current sanctions. The conclusion at which the author of the article arrives is that resistance of faith is the strategy pursued by Shi’ites throughout history despite the numerous difficulties they faced, and that it is this strategy which led to the most significant results. The progress made by the Islamic republic in various areas, the author said, is one more sign that this strategy is the only one capable of leading to positive results. Abandoning this strategy in favor of concessions has brought dire, at times insurmountable consequences. Resistance, the article said, is a message of the Quran, which teaches: “Lo! those who say: Our Lord is Allah, and afterward are upright, the angels descend upon them, saying: Fear not nor grieve, but bear good tidings of the paradise which ye are promised” (Surat Fussilat [41:30], Pickthall translation. The Surah discusses the obstacle erected by some of the Quraysh tribesmen in the hearts of Muslims so that the divine message could not get into their souls).

The chief of the Revolutionary Guards in Qazvin also called for strengthening the Iranian people by the power of faith. Speaking at a conference held in the city of Qazvin last week, Salar Abnush said that all the sanctions imposed on Iran stem from the fact that the Iranians are anticipating the return of the Vanished Imam. If the people know that this is the reason behind the sanctions, Abnush said, they will oppose them with their spirits and hearts (www.snn.ir, July 25).

Irangives up birth planning following Supreme Leader’s statement

This week, for the first time in about two decades, the Supreme Leader publicly and clearly called for the reexamination of the birth planning policy currently pursued in Iran. At a meeting with top regime officials held last Tuesday, July 24, Khamenei argued that while the policy was appropriate for the early 1990s, it was a mistake to continue pursuing it after that time. He noted that scientific studies indicate that, if the current policy remains in place, the Iranian society will undergo considerable aging and, eventually, population decline, which is why the policy should be seriously reconsidered. He also called on the media and the clerics to cultivate this understanding through cultural conditioning and raise public awareness of the issue (Fars, July 24).

The remarks made by the Supreme Leader have reignited the public debate over the birth policy. One day after Khamenei’s speech, the conservative website www.598.ir published a commentary article which stressed the need for a change in Iran’s birth planning policy. The website reviewed the re-implementation of this policy during the Rafsanjani administration (1989 – 1997), which was given the title “two children is enough”, and the criticism it has drawn since then from clerics, the media, and politicians, including President Ahmadinejad. According to the website, Khamenei’s statement on the issue shows that, left unattended, the demographic trends in Iran may turn into a serious problem for the regime.

In a related story, the website reported that the National Center for Statistics published figures indicating that the size of an average Iranian family has dropped from 5.2 people in 1976 to 4.03 people in 2006 and 3.55 people in 2011.

The website said that, in the past, it had already warned about the dangers inherent in following the current policy, which threatens to upset Iran’s demographic balance. The late 1980s were marked by increasing concerns about a population explosion; now, however, the threat is that of a population decline in the long term. According to various estimates, the current population growth rate in Iran is in the range of 1.3 to 1.8 percent, while a population growth rate of 1.2 percent is commonly accepted as the minimum rate needed to prevent population decline. If the current birth planning policy continues, in 80 years the population of Iran may drop to 31 million people, 47 percent of whom will be aged 60 and up. Iran is currently one of the world’s ten countries whose populations undergo the most rapid population aging process.

The website noted that policy planners in the United States and Europe have a positive view of the demographic processes that are taking place in Iran, with some of them even arguing that these processes will eventually lead to a change of regime in the country. According to the website, not only will population decline have severe economic effects, it will also lead to severe security and political consequences. Population aging will make it impossible for the government to guarantee sufficient welfare services, increase the economic burden placed on the government, and force it to divert a considerable part of its economic resources to social security and social services for the elderly. The demographic trends will also have the effect of reducing Iran’s workforce, which will make it necessary to import workers from abroad. The result will be capital flight and the introduction of foreign cultures into Iran (www.598.ir, July 25).

Daneshjou News Agency (daneshjou being Persian for ‘student’) also warned against continuing to follow the birth planning policy, saying that even European countries now understand that this policy may lead to population decline and a severe social crisis. Among other things, the news agency discussed the significant difference between the population growth rate of Iran’s Shi’ites and the considerably higher population growth rate of the Sunnis (7 percent in Sunni areas compared to 1-1.3 percent in Shi’ite areas). This difference threatens the demographic balance between Iran’s Shi’ites and Sunnis, and some villages where there was once a large Shi’ite majority have become villages with a predominant Sunni majority.

The world’s developing countries must learn the lesson of the harmful influence that birth planning policy has had on European countries and pursue an alternative policy to that adopted by the West. This policy needs to be based on an Islamic worldview, rely on the experience of other countries, and avoid repeating the mistakes they made. Iran needs to pursue a birth planning policy that is compatible with Islam, which encourages having more children. Iran’s birth planning policy needs to be adapted to its unique climate and geographic characteristics, and avoid the disadvantages of the Western birth planning policy. The news agency noted that sources of Islamic religious law are inconclusive on birth planning, since some of them encourage having children while others stress the great responsibility involved in raising them. Islam can therefore serve as a “third path” between the policy pursued by the West and a birth policy which completely ignores the changing interests and circumstances. The ones who need to instruct society on the desired policy are the clerics (www.snn.ir, July 25).

The warning about the demographic processes that stem from the current birth planning policy was also joined by the Khabar Online website. Dr. Mohammad Javad Mahmoudi, the head of the Population Studies and Research Center in Asia and the Pacific (PSRC), said in an interview to the website that, if allowed to continue, the current demographic trends and the aging crisis will deliver a heavy blow to Iran. He noted that, while Britain took 100 years to reach an ageing crisis, Iran took as little as 25 to 30 years. According to Mahmoudi, every family needs two to three children to appropriately deal with the ageing process. He further added that Sistan and Baluchestan Province (populated mostly by members of the Baluchi minority, who belong to the Sunni school of thought in Islam, and considered the poorest province in Iran) is also seeing a decrease in the number of children: the number of children in an average family has gone down from eight to less than four (Khabar Online, July 25).

Meanwhile, Abdolreza Azizi, a member of the Majles Social Committee, reported that, in its coming meetings, the committee intends to discuss ways to put into practice the Supreme Leader’s recommendations about the need for population growth. He said that it is necessary to raise public awareness of the need to increase the number of children per family, since the birth planning policy is partially incompatible with the interests of the Iranian society. If the current conditions persist, Azizi warned, Islamic Iran will lose its youthfulness in the near future (Fars, July 25). The Ministry of Health also reported that its policy on birth planning has changed, saying that the budget allocated for promoting said policy has been removed (Khabar Online, July 25).

In recent years the birth planning policy has come under increasing criticism from Iran’s religious establishment. In September 2011 two top conservative clerics expressed their reservations about the birth planning policy. Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani warned that birth control leads to a decline in the world’s Shi’ite and Muslim population. Ayatollah Ja’far Sobhani discussed the issue as well, and said at a meeting with Islamic Guidance minister Dr. Mohammad Hosseini that birth planning was in no way helpful to the state and that the current policy, if not changed, could bring about a decline in Shi’ite population, which could already be seen in many cities in Iran’s border regions.

In addition, on several occasions over the past several years President Ahmadinejad has announced that he does not agree with the current birth planning policy. He first introduced his views on the issue in October 2006 by stating that he objected to the idea according to which two children per family is enough, saying that Iran is a country with tremendous potential that could accommodate 120 million residents. In an interview given to Iranian TV in April 2010, the president claimed that even Western governments regretted their family planning policies and were forced to make considerable efforts to preserve Western culture in light of the significant population decline. The president’s remarks drew strong criticism even from elements affiliated with the conservative camp. His critics claimed that, in light of Iran’s current economic situation and the severe problems facing the education and health systems, changing the family planning policy was not the appropriate thing to do. In early 2011 the Expediency Discernment Council, headed by Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, also asserted that increasing the population was not the logical strategy for solving Iran’s problems and that the birth policy should not be changed.

Iran’s family planning policy has undergone far-reaching changes since the Islamic revolution. The family planning program, which was officially launched in the summer of 1967 to decrease the natural population growth rate, was put on hold shortly after the revolution. A short time later, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the revolution, ruled that there was no religious prohibition against using contraceptives; however, the executive board of family planning was disbanded, a significant number of family planning clinics were shut down or cut back, and the supply of contraceptives remained limited. After the Iran-Iraq War broke out in September 1980, Iran’s authorities began portraying population size as a major source of military strength and national security. The regime’s policy to strengthen the status of the family by promoting marriage and encouraging women to return to their homes led to a sharp increase in birth rate in the first half of the 1980s, when it reached an annual 3.9 percent.

The second half of the 1980s saw an increased recognition of the economic and social consequences of an uncontrolled increase in population, perceived as an impediment to economic growth and development. In December 1989 Iran adopted a birth planning program to limit the number of pregnancies and the number of children per family. The family planning law, which cut financial benefits for families with many children while encouraging small families, was approved by the Majles in 1993. The program included a public awareness campaign on the media and through the education system; in addition, clinics and medical centers were established to provide family planning services. The authorities also encouraged the use of contraceptives, including castration and sterilization operations. Young couples were even required to receive instruction on contraceptives to get their marriage license. The resumption of the birth planning policy was a success, and the birth rate dropped to 1.2 in 2001.

The statement made by the Supreme Leader marks the beginning of a significant change in Iran’s birth planning policy. However, it is unlikely to curb the trend that can be seen in Iranian society in recent years towards having fewer children, which is mostly the result of the ongoing increase in the age of marriage and in the cost of living.

In light of foreign currency crisis, restrictions imposed on selling foreign currency to Iranians traveling abroad

As part of the efforts to contain the crisis on the foreign currency exchange market, Iran’s Central Bank Governor Mahmoud Bahmani announced that, from now on, Iranians who travel abroad will not be able to purchase dollars at the official exchange rate (12,260 rials per dollar), and will have to purchase their foreign currency only on the free market. The decision was made at a joint government-Majles meeting held last week to discuss the measures that need to be taken to contend with the escalating economic sanctions (IRNA, July 25). Bahmani noted that these instructions will not apply to pilgrims who travel to Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria to visit Shi’ite holy sites. However, ISNA News Agency reported earlier this week that pilgrims will only be allowed to purchase up to 200 dollars at the official exchange rate once per year (ISNA, July 29). At the same time, the Iranian media reported that the authorities are looking into the possibility to stop selling foreign currency at the official exchange rates to Iranian students who study abroad (Mehr, July 29).

The decision to stop selling foreign currency to Iranians who travel abroad is a significant departure from the policy announced by the Central Bank only a few months ago. In late January 2012, at the same time as the rial was devalued, Bahmani said that the government would keep providing foreign currency to all Iranians who needed to purchase dollars for their personal needs, including to those traveling abroad. At the time, he stressed that there was no reason why Iranian citizens should purchase foreign currency on the free market.

As the Central Bank announced that Iranians traveling abroad will no longer be able purchase dollars at the official exchange rate, Arsalan Fathipour, the chairman of the Majles Economy Committee, said that another decision made at the joint Majles-government meeting was to prevent the sale of foreign currency at the official exchange rate for importing luxury products. Importers will only be allowed to buy dollars at the official exchange rate for importing basic products (Mehr, July 25). Last week Fathipour reported that, from now on, three different exchange rates will be used to import goods into Iran. The official exchange rate (12,260 rials per dollar) will be used for importing basic products, an exchange rate of 15,000 rials per dollar will be used for the import of intermediate products and capital, and luxury products—such as cars—will be imported at the dollar’s free market exchange rate (19,000 to 20,000 rials per dollar). The new foreign currency restrictions reflect the government’s recognition that its efforts to curb the sharp increase of the dollar’s exchange rate on the free market have failed, and that action has to be taken to prevent a decline in the country’s foreign currency reserves in light of the escalating economic sanctions. This week the governor of the Central Bank was summoned to appear before the Majles to report on developments on the foreign exchange market and the state of the foreign currency reserves (Fars, July 29).

The new restrictions on selling foreign currency to those traveling abroad have been met with a generally favorable response from the Iranian press, which stressed, however, that it will not be enough to stabilize the foreign currency market. The economic daily Donya-ye Eqtesad had praise for the decision to restrict the sale of foreign currency to people who travel to other countries, saying that it is a reasonable decision. With economic conditions being what they are today, it is unjust to sell foreign currency at the official exchange rate to people who travel abroad and belong to the upper deciles of society, said an editorial published by the daily. Donya-ye Eqtesad warned that, if the sanctions persist, the result may be a severe shortage in foreign currency reserves, which is why the government needs to take the necessary measures to increase control of foreign exchange transactions. However, the daily advised the Central Bank to sell dollars on the free market in the sum which was until now available to those who travel abroad (up to 1,000 dollars per person). This, according to the daily, will help prevent another spike in the dollar’s exchange rate due to the expected increase in demand for dollars on the free market as a result of the new restrictions (Donya-ye Eqtesad, July 28).

The daily Tehran Emrooz also reported that the restrictions on selling foreign currency to those traveling abroad have drawn positive reactions from economic commentators. However, these commentators stressed that this decision alone is not enough to contend with the developments on the foreign currency market that stem from the influence of the economic sanctions. According to the commentators, the two main problems on the foreign currency market are the considerable difference between the dollar’s official exchange rate and its exchange rate on the free market, and the activity of speculators on the foreign exchange market. In an interview given to the daily, the economic commentator Mehdi Taqavi said that the government’s decision to prevent foreign currency from being sold at the official exchange rate to those traveling abroad will help it gain more control of the foreign currency market and stop the depletion of Iran’s foreign currency reserves. He stressed, however, that the decision is not enough under the current conditions. Taqavi estimated that the decision will have no significant influence on those who travel abroad, because Iranian citizens who can afford to go abroad can also pay more for the foreign currency they need for their trip. The economic commentator Ahmad Sa’edi said that the conditions that have been formed as a result of the economic sanctions call for decisions that will help stabilize the market. Tehran Emrooz reported that, following the new restrictions on selling foreign currency, the dollar’s exchange rate on the free market has increased even more, and that the U.S. dollar was trading at 19,600 rials earlier this week (Tehran Emrooz, July 28).

On the other hand, some in the tourism industry expressed their concerns over the decision to prevent foreign currency from being sold to Iranians going abroad. A member of the board of Iran’s Association of Travel Agencies said this week that the decision hurts the middle class and makes it impossible for Iranian citizens to travel to foreign countries. In an interview to ISNA News Agency, Akbar Ghamkhar said that, while the decision is not particularly significant for government officials, traders, and wealthy individuals, it has a considerable effect on the middle class, who won’t be able to travel abroad from now on. He added that it is one of the government’s responsibilities to guarantee the social welfare of its citizens, and that traveling to foreign countries is part of this welfare and of family needs. Such trips build a sense of camaraderie among the families and contribute to increased productivity in society. According to Ghamkhar, the purpose of most trips abroad is family visits, medical care, or commerce, and there is therefore no reason to make that inaccessible to Iranians. He noted that the sum of foreign currency allocated to each person traveling abroad is small anyway (usually 400 dollars per person), and that the decision will therefore not lead to any significant savings in foreign currency. Ghamkhar also warned that travel agents will likely be hit by the decision (ISNA, July 28).

The daily Hamshahri reported this week that the new instructions have caused confusion for people going abroad. A number of Iranians expressed their concern over the possibility that the banks at the airports would not give them the dollars they had already purchased at the official exchange rate. The daily also reported confusion in the banking system caused by the fact that the Central Bank has yet to issue a clear, official order banning the sale of foreign currency at the official exchange rate for people who go abroad (Hamshahri, July 28).

Meanwhile, Mohammad Nahavandian, the head of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, warned about the ongoing turmoil on the foreign currency market and called on the Central Bank to take action to rebuild stability and public trust in the market. This can be achieved by implementing a policy based on just one exchange rate and avoiding a tiered exchange rate system, he said (Shargh, July 29).

Judiciary vs. president: appointments revoked, pro-Ahmadinejad bloggers arrested

This week the Administrative Court of Justice revoked the appointment of Sa’id Mortazavi, Tehran’s former prosecutor general, as chairman of the Social Security Foundation. According to the court ruling, the matter was brought before the public council of the court following a complaint lodged by some Majles members with regard to the appointment, and the council ultimately decided to revoke the appointment as it was against the law (Fars, July 30). The Administrative Court of Justice, under the chief of the judiciary, is in charge of dealing with complaints against government officials and government institutions. The public council of the court is made up of over 90 judges.

The court’s decision is a blow to President Ahmadinejad, who decided to appoint Mortazavi as chairman of the Social Security Foundation in March 2012. The appointment stirred a political controversy due to Mortazavi’s involvement in the Kahrizak detention facility affair. The facility was closed down in the summer of 2009 on the Supreme Leader’s orders in light of reports according to which several of its detainees had died there as a result of torture and abuse. One of the detainees who died in the detention facility was the son of a top advisor to Mohsen Reza’i, secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council and former commander of the Revolutionary Guards. A parliamentary fact-finding committee appointed to investigate the events that had taken place in the detention facility blamed the incident on Mortazavi, who was serving as Tehran’s prosecutor general at the time. The committee strongly criticized his decision to relocate nearly 150 people detained in the riots that had broken out after the presidential elections to the Kahrizak detention center, where dangerous criminals and drug addicts were held. Mortazavi was removed from his position following the incident.

Mortazavi is considered one of President Ahmadinejad’s close allies. The president’s opponents argued that that his appointment as head of the Social Security Foundation was intended as a provocation against his political opponents in the conservative camp and judiciary chief Sadeq Larijani, who had removed Mortazavi from his position as Tehran’s prosecutor general. Shortly after being appointed, Mortazavi announced his intention to resign due to the controversy sparked by the appointment; however, President Ahmadinejad refused to accept the resignation.

Farda, a website affiliated with Mohsen Reza’i, had praise for the decision made by the court and, in an implicit reference to other allies of President Ahmadinejad who serve in senior positions, said that the decision to revoke Mortazavi’s appointment sends a clear message that all the other controversial officials who are currently being investigated by the court need to be removed from their positions as well. Farda said that the court’s decision lends support to the claim that Mortazavi’s appointment as chairman of the Social Security Foundation was illegal, since his experience does not meet the criteria stipulated by the law for this position (Farda, July 30).

In addition to the blow that the revocation of Mortazavi’s appointment inflicted on the president, several news websites reported that new limitations have been imposed in recent days on the activity of pro-Ahmadinejad bloggers. This week, July 29, the Digarban website reported that several bloggers who had taken part in a conference of 35 bloggers who are close to the president about two weeks ago have had their freedom restricted by the authorities. Ahmad Shariat, one of the organizers of the conference and the owner of a blog called “Voice from the Inside” (Neda’i az Daroun), was arrested several days after the conference due to his criticism of the Revolutionary Guards and the judiciary; Hamed Fatahi, who runs the Armanshahr blog and was also involved in organizing the conference, was summoned to an interrogation by the judiciary; and the blogs of five bloggers who had taken part in the conference were blocked. A reformist website reported this week that pro-Ahmadinejad bloggers are currently trying to raise 100 million tomans (over 50 thousand dollars) to bail out Ahmad Shariat from Evin Prison (www.irangreenvoice.com, July 26).

A blogger close to the president reported this week that, since the beginning of the conflict between the Supreme Leader and the president in mid-2011 over the dismissal of Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi, approximately ten news and commentary websites affiliated with Ahmadinejad have been blocked. Websites that oppose the government, on the other hand, have been promised by the judiciary that they can bash the government and offend the president without having to worry about anything (www.ensanekamel.com, July 29).

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Will Iran’s Supreme Leader once again be forced “to drink from the poisoned chalice”?

Published: 26/07/2012

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Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during his presidential term, at the time of the Iran-Iraq War

Overview

1. On July 17, 2012, Iran commemorated the anniversary of the decision made by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to agree to a ceasefire with Iraq. Khomeini’s strategic decision, which brought an end to the eight-year war between the two countries, was made on the basis of U.N. Security Council Resolution 598 from 1988. The anniversary of Khomeini’s decision was marked by an extensive and rather uncharacteristic focus by Iran’s media and top regime officials on his agreement to the ceasefire.

2. The official website of Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, expressed his support for adopting Security Council Resolution 598, which ended the war, justified it, and discussed the achievements that were made possible thanks to its adoption.Khamenei stressed that the decision to agree to the ceasefire had nothing to do with fear of Iraq or American threats—instead, the decision was driven by domestic reasons, chiefly the understanding that the decision was beneficial to Iran’s interests and Khomeini’s recognition of the Iranian economic difficulties.

3. It is our assessment that the support for Khomeini’s decision and Khamenei’s remarks on Iran’s need to integrate both revolutionary idealism and realism in its policy vis-à-vis the West^[1] are not necessarily indicative that the Iranian regime intends to prepare the ground for a compromise with the West on the nuclear issue. However, the extensive media discourse on this issue may indicate the emergence ofan understanding in Iran that the country’s leadership is facing a strategic moment of decision similar to that faced by the revolution leader in 1988. At such decisive moment, like his predecessor, Khamenei may be required to decide whether he is willing “to drink from the poisoned chalice”.

4. See Appendix for details on the media discourse on Ayatollah Khomeini’s agreement to the ceasefire with Iraq.

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^[1] Speaking at a convention of top regime officials on July 24, 2012, Supreme Leader Khamenei announced that the combination of idealism [of the Islamic revolution] and realism [i.e., pragmatism] was the “secret” behind the progress made by Iran and the Islamic commonwealth of nations for 32 years. He also noted that the pressure exerted on Iran is part of an ongoing reality with which Iran has to contend, but that the enemy’s pressure will not throw Iran off its course (IRNA, Tehran, July 24, 2012).

News of Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (July 18-24, 2012)

Published: 24/07/2012

The Hezbollah terrorist attack in Bulgaria: Remains of the bus at the Burgas airport

The burned-out bus at the airport in Burgas, Bulgaria (ZAKA spokesman, July 19, 2012).

Israeli medical assistance delegations in action in Bulgaria (IDF Spokesman, July 18, 2012).

Mass PIJ wedding financed by the Turkish IHH, whose logo appears at the right. The flags bear the Turkish crescent (Picture from the Paltoday website, July 17, 2012).

Children at Hamas summer camps undergo paramilitary training (Pictures from the PALDF website, July 22, 2012).

Khaled Mashaal and the Hamas delegation meet with new Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi (Pictures from the Hamasinfo.net website, July 10, 2012).

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Overview

This past week terrorist events focused on the Hezbollah bombing of a bus full of Israeli tourists in Burgas, Bulgaria, part of a global terrorist campaign being waged against Israel by Iran and Hezbollah. Five Israeli citizens, one Bulgarian and the bomber were killed in the blast. It was the first "successful" terrorist attack Hezbollah and Iran had managed to carry out after a series of failures.
This past week there was also a terrorist attack along the Israeli-Egyptian border. Shots were fired at a bus carrying IDF soldiers in the region of Ein Netafim. There were no casualties.
Sporadic rocket fire from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory continued. This past week three rocket hits were identified in Israel's south.

Deadly Attack on Israeli Tourists in Bulgaria – Initial Report

Overview

At around 1730 hours on July 18 there was an explosion at the Burgas airport aboard a bus about to carry newly-landed Israeli tourists to their hotel, the second of four buses. The explosion killed five Israeli citizens and one Bulgarian, the bus driver. The bomber who blew up the bus was also killed. Thirty-six Israelis were wounded, three of them seriously.
It was the most recent in the series of terrorist attacks and attempted attacks against Israeli tourists and official Israeli representatives carried out in last year(in Turkey, India, Thailand, Kenya, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Cyprus). All signs indicate that it was another terrorist attack in the campaign being waged by Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah.

The burned-out bus at the airport in Burgas, Bulgaria (ZAKA spokesman, July 19, 2012).

Israeli spokesmen, among them Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have stated that Israel has firm intelligence proving that Hezbollah carried out the terrorist attack in Burgas (according to the prime minister, interviewed by Fox News on July 22, it is "absolutely rock-solid intelligence"). Note: A Hezbollah terrorist operative was recently detained in Cyprus. He had been collecting intelligence about Israeli tourist venues. In addition, Hezbollah participated in other terrorist attacks as part of the Iranian terrorist campaign against Israel.
The remains of the terrorist operative were found near the bus. So far it is unclear whether he planned to blow himself up near the bus or planned to put the bomb into the bus' baggage compartment and it detonated prematurely. There is also the theoretical possibility that the terrorist was a dupe and blown up by remote control by another terrorist operative.
According to the Bulgarian minister of the interior, the bomber was carrying an estimated three kilograms (6.6 pounds) of explosives (Agence France-Presse, July 20, 2012). At the scene of the explosion a driver's license belonging to an American citizen was found. Senior American sources reported that no such license could be found in the data banks in the United States (AP, July 19, 2012). The Bulgarian authorities are of the opinion that he had not been working alone and that at least one other person had provided him with logistic support. It was that person, according to the Bulgarian authorities, who had tried to rent a car in the port city of Varna (AP, July 19, 2012).

The Victims of the Attack

Five Israeli citizens and the Bulgarian bus driver were killed in the attack. The Israelis were:

Amir Menashe, 27, from Petah Tikvah, married, father of ten month-old boy.
Yitzhak Kolangi, 28, from Petah Tikvah, married, father of a four month-old girl. His wife was also injured in the explosion.
Maor Harush, 26, from Acre.
Kochava Shriki, 44, from Rishon Lezion, married, pregnant
Elior Preis, 26, from Acre.

The Bulgarian bus driver was Mustafa Kyosev, 36, married and father of two.

The Victims
(Pictures from the Israeli Foreign Ministry website, July 19, 2012)

Israel Sends Medical Assistance

As soon as news of the attack reached Israel, Israeli Chief of Staff Benny Gantz ordered the IDF to organize a medical delegation, which would be flown to Bulgaria on transport planes. Their mission was to evacuate the wounded to Israel as rapidly as possible and bring back the bodies of the murdered victims (IDF Spokesman, July 19, 2012). In addition, Israel sent medical teams and experts in identifying the remains of bodies.
On July 19 two Israeli Air Force planes took off from Bulgaria for Israel carrying the wounded Israelis accompanied by doctors and soldiers from the IAF's Rescue and Evacuation Unit. One plane took off from Burgas with 33 wounded and the other from the capital city of Sofia with three critically wounded Israelis who had been evacuated to hospitals there. A third plane carried the victims' coffins (IDF Spokesman, July 19, 2012).

Israeli medical assistance delegations in action in Bulgaria (IDF Spokesman, July 18, 2012).

Initial Reactions to the Terrorist Attack in Bulgaria

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said "All signs point toward Iran. Over the past few months we have seen Iran's attempts to attack Israelis in Thailand, India, Cyprus and other countries...This is a global Iranian terror onslaught and Israel will react firmly to it." The prime minister sent his condolences to the families of the victims and wished a speedy recovery to the wounded (Prime Minister's website, July 18, 2012).
In the international arena the attack was strongly condemned but official reactions did not mention Iran or Hezbollah:

The UN Security Council condemned the attack in a press release and "underlined the need to bring perpetrators, organizers, financiers and sponsors of this reprehensible act of terrorism to justice, and urged all States, in accordance with their obligations under international law and relevant Security Council resolutions, to cooperate actively with all relevant authorities in this regard."^[1]
American President Obamasaid, "I strongly condemn today’s barbaric terrorist attack on Israelis in Bulgaria. My thoughts and prayers are with the families of those killed and injured, and with the people of Israel, Bulgaria, and any other nation whose citizens were harmed in this awful event. These attacks against innocent civilians, including children, are completely outrageous. The United States will stand with our allies, and provide whatever assistance is necessary to identify and bring to justice the perpetrators of this attack.

Important Terrorism Events Israel's South

IDF Bus Shot At near the Israeli-Egyptian Border

On the afternoon of July 22 shots were fired at a bus carrying IDF soldiers. The attack occurred in the Ein Netafim region near the Israeli-Egyptian border. There were no casualties but the bus was damaged. IDF forces were brought to the site and conducted a search (IDF Spokesman, July 22, 2012). Note: On June 18, 2012, a squad of three terrorist operatives carried out a similar attack, killing an Israeli civilian. The events again illustrate that the Sinai Peninsula has become an arena for launching terrorist attacks against Israel.

Rocket Fire

This past week three rocket hits were identified in Israel's south. They fell in open areas; there were no casualties and no damage was done.

Rockets Fired into Israeli Territory Since the Beginning of 2011^{^[2]}

· Note: 162 of the rockets which landed in Israeli territory in June were fired during the round of escalation.

Judea and Samaria

Easing Conditions for Judea and Samaria Residents for Ramadan

In view of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (July 19 to August 22), a number of steps have been authorized to ease conditions for the residents of Judea and Samaria (Website of the Coordinator for government activities in the territories, July 18 2012):

Roadblocks: A number of roadblocks in Jericho and northern Samaria will be removed and checkpoints in the Jerusalem and Jenin districts will be open longer. The roadblock at the entrance to Ramallah will be open 24 hours a day.
Going abroad: Restrictions will be eased for VIPs and businessmen flying out of Israel through Ben-Gurion International Airport.
Prayers and family visits: Men and women over the age of 40 wishing to pray in Jerusalem will not need special authorization. Authorization will be given to 5,000 worshippers a day to attend prayers on the Temple Mount and visit friends during the holiday.

Events on the Ground

This week as well there were riots at the traditional friction points in Judea and Samaria, especially the villages of Bila'in, Nili'in and Nebi Saleh. Rioters threw stones at the IDF forces, who in certain instances used riot control equipment to disperse the demonstrators. In addition, in some cases stones and Molotov cocktails were thrown at Israeli civilian and security vehicles.

The Situation in the Gaza Strip

Attacks on Christians in the Gaza Strip

Alexios, Archbishop of the Greek Orthodox church in the Gaza Strip, accused a Muslim group headed by Salem Salameh, a Hamas member of the Palestinian Legislative Council and chairman of the Palestinian council of religious sages, of kidnapping young Christians and forcing them to convert to Islam. Dozens of Christians staged a sit-down strike at the Orthodox church in Gaza in protest (Al-Ayam, July 17, 2012).
Ayman al-Batniji, spokesman for the Hamas police, denied that Christians were being kidnapped in the Gaza Strip and said there had been a fight in one of the Christian families and that the police had intervened. He also appealed to the Christians not to damage their relations with the Muslims in the Gaza Strip (Ma'an News Agency, July 17, 2012).
Since Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip, there had been an increase in the number of attacks on Christians and Christian institutions, although in the past few years no serious events occurred.^[3]

The IHH Finances a Mass Wedding for Palestinian Islamic Jihad Operatives

On July 17 the Palestinian Islamic Jihad held a wedding for 50 couples in the Gaza Strip. The event was financed by the Islamist Turkish IHH and a Yemeni welfare organization. It was attended by senior PIJ figures as well as Muhammed Kaya, the IHH representative in the Gaza Strip. After the ceremony each couple was awarded $1000 (Paltoday website, July 17, 2012).

Mass PIJ wedding financed by the Turkish IHH, whose logo appears at the right. The flags bear the Turkish crescent
(Picture from the Paltoday website, July 17, 2012).

End of Camp Party for Scouts in the Gaza Strip

This year, as in the past, terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip exploited summer camps to give the children of the Gaza Strip paramilitary training and brainwash them with radical Islamic doctrines. At the end of camp party at a scouts' summer camp in the Gaza Strip the children wore uniforms, held training exercises and stood at attention in military formation (PALDF forum website, July 22, 2012).

Children at Hamas summer camps undergo paramilitary training (Pictures from the PALDF website, July 22, 2012).

Palestinian Meetings with Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi

Mahmoud Abbas Meets with Mohamed Morsi

Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas met for the first time with Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi. He congratulated the new president on his election victory and said that the Palestinians regarded relations with Egypt as deeply strategic, and that they had to be preserved and fostered. He also said the Palestinians regarded negotiations as the only way to achieve peace in the region. He stressed the importance of implementing the internal Palestinian reconciliation by means of elections (Ma'an News Agency, July 19, 2012).
Azzam al-Ahmed, a member of Fatah's Central Committee and head of its delegation to the reconciliation talks, said that the Egyptian president had told Mahmoud Abbas that he would maintain neutrality during the internal Palestinian reconciliation (PalPress website, July 19, 2012). Mahmoud Abbas emphasized that he had not asked Mohamed Morsi to exert pressure of Hamas regarding the reconciliation (Ma'an News Agency, July 19, 2012).

Hamas Meets with Mohamed Morsi

On July 19, immediately after meeting with Mahmoud Abbas, Mohamed Morsi met with a Hamas delegation headed by Khaled Mashaal. Also present at the meeting was Musa Abu Marzouk, deputy chairman of Hamas' Executive Committee, and other senior figures. The main issue discussed was the internal Palestinian reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. The situation in the Gaza Strip was also discussed, with an emphasis on the energy crisis and Hamas' expectations that restrictions concerning the Rafah crossing would be abolished (Egyptian satellite television and Al-Quds TV, July 19, 2012).

Ismail Haniya Expects to Meet with Mohamed Morsi

Ismail Haniya, head of the de-facto Hamas administration in the Gaza Strip, announced that he expected to meet with Mohamed Morsi in the coming days. He said he had received an official invitation from the president's office (Al-Hayat, July 19, 2012).

Khaled Mashaal and the Hamas delegation meet with new Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi (Pictures from the Hamasinfo.net website, July 10, 2012).

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad

The PIJ Leadership Leaves Syria

"Palestinian sources" reported that after many years of using Syria as its central base, the PIJ's leadership had left the country. According to the sources, Ramadan Shalah, the secretary general of the organization, and Ziyad Nahleh, his deputy for the past several weeks, were no longer in Syria. However, the sources said that relations between the PIJ and the Syrian regime remained good. That was in contrast to Hamas, whose relations with the Syrian leadership have become strained because of the organization's implied criticism of the Syrian regime.
Sources within the PIJ were quick to respond that the organization was not leaving Syria, but that the two had left to "deal with external matters" because the situation in Damascus made it impossible for the organization to operate from there (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, July 21, 2012).

Full document in PDF format

^[1]http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2012/sc10717.doc.htm

^{^[2]}As of July 24, 2012.

^[3^] For further information see the June 2, 2008 bulletin "An increase in attacks on Christian and institutions identified with the West in the Gaza Strip."

''Syria, the First Line of Resistance’’ conference in Tehran

Surge in price of chicken continues, Iranians line up to purchase chicken at government-controlled prices ahead of Ramadan

Religion students not spared by inflation crisis

Mosques cleaned up ahead of month of Ramadan

Full document in PDF format

Highlights of the week

“Syria, the First Line of Resistance” conference in Tehran: “Sword of Damocles doctrine is Syria’s trump card against the West”
“Give Morsi a chance”: Iranian press reactions to Egyptian president’s visit to Saudi Arabia
Surge in price of chicken continues, Iranians line up to purchase chicken at government-controlled prices ahead of Ramadan
Religion students not spared by inflation crisis

"Syria, the First Line of Resistance" conference in Tehran: "Sword of Damocles doctrine is Syria's trump card against the West”

Last Thursday, July 12, Cyber Hezbollah held its ninth conference in Tehran, titled “Syria, the First Line of Resistance”. Cyber Hezbollah is an organization that was established in the summer of 2011 by supporters of the Iranian regime who operated in cyberspace against the reformist opposition during the riots of 2009. The organization’s first conference was convened in August 2011. A memorandum of opinion released by the organization shortly after it was established listed its goals and objectives, which include bringing together regime supporters who are active in cyberspace, organizing courses and training for the activists, holding meetings to acquaint the activists with tactics of cyber warfare, and mobilizing the activists for online activities. Since its establishment, the organization has provided a supportive environment for philosophical and cultural discourse between figures considered close to the radical right wing bloc and regime supporters.

Cyber Hezbollah’s ninth conference, held in the presence of Hamed Hassan, the Syrian ambassador to Iran, was dedicated to the current developments in Syria, with its participants expressing the Iranian regime’s continuing support for President Bashar Assad and his government.

Speaking at the conference, Hojjat-ol-Eslam Mohammad Hassan Akhtari, Iran’s former ambassador in Damascus and chairman of the international Ahlulbayt Association, addressed the developments in the Arab world, saying that the enemies of Islam are concerned about the “Islamic awakening” in the region and are attempting to hold back the progress of the Islamic movements in various ways, which include hitting the front of Islamic resistance against Israel, whose center is in Syria. He stressed that Syria has always been at the forefront of the resistance against Israel and, with the cooperation of Iran, sided with Hezbollah and Palestine.

Akhtari said that the developments in Syria are completely different than those that have taken place in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, and Libya these past two years. The resistance movements in those countries were popular, while the developments in Syria cannot be considered as the manifestation of a popular movement. What is more, in other Arab countries there were oppressive regimes that cooperated with Western powers, the same powers that are now cooperating with each other to topple the regime in Syria. He noted that the Syrian government presented to the foreign diplomats photographic evidence of the crimes committed by regime opponents against Syrian civilians, but that the Western media are trying to portray a distorted and diametrically opposed view of reality.

Akhtari strongly condemned the authorities of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, saying that the rulers of these two countries, who had never held elections or upheld the rights of their citizens, are in no position to call for reforms or elections in Syria. He also voiced criticism against the government of Turkey, saying that the Turkish people should know that the policy pursued by the authorities of their country does not serve the interests of the citizens of Syria and Turkey (www.snn.ir, July 12).

The keynote speech of the conference was delivered by Dr. Hassan Abbasi, the head of Iran’s Doctrinal Analysis Center for Security Without Borders, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards. Abbasi is considered one of the major theoreticians of the radical wing in the conservative camp and the Revolutionary Guards.

Abbasi noted that the West has taken the developments in the Arab world to reflect a third wave of “Islamic awakening” in the Middle East. The first wave was the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, the second was the rise of the Islamic movements in Lebanon and Palestine, and the third wave is taking place in Arab countries right now. It is believed in the West that the Islamic awakening needs to be brought under control before it spreads to Western countries, too.

The United States and Israel argue that the developments taking place in the region are not a manifestation of an anti-Zionist, anti-American phenomenon, but rather an uprising against the oppression which, as they say, is taking place in Syria and elsewhere. According to Abbasi, however, the developments in Syria are not a popular revolution where citizens take to the streets, but rather a terrorist activity conducted by Al-Qaeda operatives against the Syrian regime—the very operatives who have done nothing in the past several years to help Hezbollah or Hamas in their struggle against Israel.

Abbasi said that, over the years, the Western imperialism and Britain gave rise to three schools of thought in the Middle East: the Ahmadiyya in Pakistan, from which the author Salman Rushdie emerged; the Baha’i faith in Iran; and the Wahhabiyya in the Arabian Peninsula. These schools of thought have the support of Western countries, and it is small wonder, therefore, that the Wahhabists do not work against the “Zionist regime” but rather put all of their forces and efforts against Syria. He noted that, when the popular uprisings in the region began, the United States gave Turkey and Saudi Arabia the mission of holding back their expansion. Turkey worked with countries in the region to spread the Turkish model. While the leaders of Turkey portray the Turkish model as an Islamic one, the only thing Islamic about it is that their wives wear veils—in practice, it is an “American Islam”.

Abbasi stressed that Israel has a vested interest in taking action to topple the Syrian regime, saying that this is the consequence of Israel losing its hold on its southern border following the revolution in Egypt. Israel is looking for a way out of the isolation it has found itself in by transferring its defense center from its southern border to Turkey, which still cooperates with it. The problem is that Syria lies between Turkey and Israel; consequently, Israel is interested in stepping up the pressure on Syria so that it can regain the strategic depth it has lost in the south and, at the same time, eliminate the problem of resistance in Lebanon.

It was Abbasi’s assessment that the West can’t launch a military action in Syria as it did in Libya. First, the Syrian regime is a closely-knit unit and the Syrian security apparatuses operate with the kind of coordination that did not exist in Libya. Second, any foreign intervention in Syria will provoke a strong reaction from Syria, the Lebanese resistance, and the Islamic resistance in Gaza against Israel. According to Abbasi, Israel is held hostage by Syria, and any attack on Syria by NATO will lead to a rocket attack on the strategic centers in Israel. Abbasi added that the international conditions are one more factor that makes a Western military initiative against Syria impossible. The coming elections in the United States, the economic crisis in the West, the weakness of Saudi Arabia, and Russia’s adamant opposition to a military attack on Syria make it impossible for the West to conduct a military operation. Syria’s trump card against the West is based on the Sword of Damocles doctrine, Abbasi said. The West knows that, in case it makes any attempt to launch a military action against Syria, Israel will be dealt a retaliatory blow with a sword whose edges are Syria and the Islamic resistance in Palestine and Lebanon. This doctrine, therefore, has the power to deter the West from a military action against Syria (www.snn.ir, July 13).

Meanwhile, this week top Iranian officials have once again stressed their support for a political solution to the crisis in Syria and their opposition to foreign military intervention. Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi announced that Tehran is willing to host talks between the Syrian government and opposition representatives, emphasizing that Iran supports a domestic Syrian solution to the political crisis in that country (Mehr, July 15). Speaking at a press conference held on Monday, July 16, Salehi said that Iran has already established connections with broad swathes of the Syrian opposition and is currently in the process of holding consultations with it (Mehr, July 16).

In response to the mediation proposal brought up by Foreign Minister Salehi, Mohammad Ali Sobhani, Iran’s former ambassador in Beirut, praised the initiative, and argued that the reevaluation of Iran’s stance on the developments in Syria is a correct course of action that serves the national interests of the Islamic republic. An article written by Sobhani and published in the reformist daily Shargh said that Iran can’t remain indifferent over the developments in Syria, and that both warring sides in Syria have some degree of responsibility for the situation. While the support shown by the Syrian regime for the front of resistance against Israel is commendable, it does not absolve it of all responsibility for the bloodshed in Syria. The Iran-Syria alliance against Israel can’t serve as a reason for Iran to avoid criticizing the inappropriate policy pursued by Syria, since good relations between governments do not justify disregard for people’s rights. Iran can play a meaningful role as a mediator, and its mediation proposal should be welcome, Sobhani wrote (Shargh, July 16).

“Give Morsi a chance”: Iranian press reactions to Egyptian president’s visit to Saudi Arabia

While some Iranian press outlets expressed reservations over Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi’s visit to Saudi Arabia this week, others urged caution. It was Morsi’s first official visit to another country after being sworn in as president. Prior to the visit, Egypt had denied reports which appeared in the Iranian press according to which Morsi intended to take an official visit to Tehran. Earlier this week the Iranian media reported that President Ahmadinejad and President Morsi will soon meet in Ethiopia at the Organization of African Unity conference, which began in Addis Ababa this week, and that Mojtaba Samareh-Hashemi, Ahmadinejad’s top advisor, is expected to fly to Egypt soon to extend an official invitation to President Morsi to take part in the Non-Aligned Movement conference which will be held in Tehran in late August.

The daily Jomhuri-ye Eslami, which in recent weeks has expressed doubt over the new Egyptian regime’s commitment to the principles of the Egyptian revolution, strongly criticized Morsi’s visit to Riyadh this week, expressing hope that the visit does not mean that there has been a strategic change in the policy of the Muslim Brotherhood now that the organization has come to power. An editorial published by the daily said that Morsi’s visit to Saudi Arabia shows that the new president and the Muslim Brotherhood have once again backed down from their previous position, having already recognized the decision made by the Cairo Supreme Court to disband the parliament. The Egyptian president’s trip to Saudi Arabia and his meeting with King Abdullah, one of the enemies of the Egyptian revolution, is both a retreat and a betrayal, and it gives the revolutionaries one more reason to be concerned, the article said. The question is whether this is a tactical retreat to which Morsi was forced to agree, or a strategic change in the policy of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The daily argued that, whenever Morsi backs down from his position, he hurts himself, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the revolution, however he may try to justify his actions. There is no question that Morsi is facing enormous difficulties in managing state affairs, particularly the economic crisis and the dire poverty. Egypt needs external economic aid from the West and the Persian Gulf states, and the refusal of the United States and Europe to provide it with such aid explains Morsi’s trip to Saudi Arabia. However, not every action taken by Morsi to contend with the economic crisis can be justified. His trip to Riyadh was humiliating even for him, since the king of Saudi Arabia was an ally of President Mubarak and was known for his unequivocal views against the Egyptian revolution. His visit, considered a betrayal by Egypt’s revolutionaries, can be counted as an achievement for the rulers of Riyadh, who need to earn every bit of legitimacy in the face of the growing popular protest in their country.

Jomhuri-ye Eslami warned that, even if the current policy pursued by the Muslim Brotherhood may have some short-term benefits for that organization, in the long term it may have severe consequences and it jeopardizes the interests of the Egyptian people. The Egyptians launched the revolution to eliminate the influence of the previous regime, to have the peace treaties with Israel revoked, and to break Egypt’s dependence on other countries in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world. So far, the Muslim Brotherhood has done nothing to implement the demands of the revolution. While Morsi has won the support of the overwhelming majority of the Egyptian revolutionaries, unfortunately he is not taking advantage of this support to achieve the objectives of the revolution. This may weaken the spirit of the revolution, serve the interests of the old regime’s supporters who have the backing of foreign and regional powers, and jeopardize the revolution. One must hope, the daily concluded, that Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood’s recent retreats from their position are the result of temporary interests, and that in the future they will take action aimed at achieving the objectives of the revolution (Jomhuri-ye Eslami, July 15).

On the other hand, the dailies Mardom Salari and Siyasat-e Rooz showed more understanding for President Morsi’s needs, which were reflected in his recent visit to Riyadh. Mardom Salari said that, based on the interviews and speeches given by Morsi, it can be concluded that he is an intelligent president who is well aware of the needs of his country and the reality in which he operates. He knows that he has to take the status of Egypt’s military leaders into consideration, he is aware of the fact that less than half of all Egyptian citizens supported him in the second round of elections, and he is following a cautious approach.

The daily said that the new president can’t be expected to show support for Iran’s positions this early in his term. No country puts the national interests of other countries before its own interests, and it would be a severe mistake to think that other countries need to be on the same page as Iran and agree with it on all issues. The president of Egypt acts in accordance with the needs of his country and government, and Iran shouldn’t take offense that some of his statements do not express support for it, since there is no room for sentiments in policy management. Iran’s dealings with Egypt need to be based on the recognition that it is a large, influential country. Given its status in the Arab world, it is only natural that Morsi has chosen Saudi Arabia as the destination of his first official visit, even though Egypt should know that Iran will eventually have more influence than Saudi Arabia on the international scene—if not today, then tomorrow. Iran needs to approach Egypt calmly, gradually, and thoughtfully, showing respect rather than exerting pressure (Mardom Salari, July 15).

The daily Siyasat-e Rooz also called on the Iranian authorities to recognize the special circumstances in which the new Egyptian president is currently operating. An article titled “Give Morsi a chance”, published on July 13, said that Morsi’s presidency is being put under a microscope due to Egypt’s significance, its historical relationship with the West and Israel, and the enormous impact of the developments in Egypt on the Arab world.

So far, Morsi has conducted himself in a reasonable, intelligent manner, and is trying to project an image different than the one painted by his opponents. For example, he made what was for him a rather risky decision to convene the Egyptian parliament, while recognizing the decision of the Supreme Court to disband the parliament. As far as Morsi is concerned, it was a first step to restricting the power of Egypt’s military leaders. His decision to go to Saudi Arabia on an official visit despite the criticism voiced by some of Egypt’s revolutionaries was also carefully calculated. Its aim was to derail plans to prohibit him from leaving Egypt, and thus reduce the sensitivity that can be expected to surround his future visits, particularly his visit to Tehran.

Those in charge of Iran’s foreign policy and media must take caution not to adopt stances that will increase the political limitations facing Morsi, and let him operate without pressure and complete the Islamist circle in the region. Those who do not take into consideration the internal and external conditions in Egypt could make things more complicated for Morsi. He needs to be given the possibility of pursuing a policy that will take into account the sensitive conditions prevailing in his country, calmly strengthen his relationship with the Muslim world, and increase the despair in Israel.

Surge in price of chicken continues, Iranians line up to purchase chicken at government-controlled prices ahead of Ramadan

The ongoing surge in the price of chicken continues to dominate Iran’s economic agenda. Earlier this week, one kilogram (2.2 lbs.) of chicken was selling for a record 8,000 tomans (about 4.5 dollars at the unofficial exchange rate) in some of the provinces. In Tehran, one kilogram of chicken was selling for 7,000 tomans.

Increase in the price of chicken during the last 10 years (ISNA, July 15)

Year	Average price (in rials)	Maximum price	Minimum price
1382 (2003 – 2004)	15064	16400	13000
1383 (2004 – 2005)	17032	20000	14900
1384 (2005 – 2006)	14811	16800	12800
1385 (2006 – 2007)	16979	18500	15300
1386 (2007 – 2008)	19958	24500	16500
1387 (2008 – 2009)	26015	28000	21900
1388 (2009 – 2010)	26906	29000	23200
1389 (2010 – 2011)	32313	35000	31000
1390 (2011 – 2012)	34596	37000	24100
1391 (2012 – 2013)	29562	66000	50000

As a consequence of the surging prices, long lines form in front of distribution centers where chickens are sold at government-controlled prices: 4,700 tomans per kilogram. The Iranian media reported this week that the lines are becoming longer by the day as demand for chicken grows ahead of the month of Ramadan. Mehr News Agency reported that, following the increase in the price of red meat, chicken has become the sole source of protein for almost all Iranians who earn an average income, and now that, too, has become out of reach for many of them. A chicken vendor said in an interview given to Mehr that demand for chicken at government-controlled prices often exceeds supply. He noted that chickens are sold at the price set by the government between 8 and 10 in the morning, and that people start waiting in line as early as 7 in the morning (Mehr, July 16).

Kalemeh, a website affiliated with the reformist opposition, also reported long lines at the distribution centers, as well as complaints from many Iranians over the continuing increase in the price of chicken. Many of them were frustrated at having to spend many hours waiting in line to purchase chicken at government-controlled prices. Many of them claimed that, even after waiting in line for hours, they had to buy chicken at a price considerably higher than that set by the government. One Iranian man said that, even though he had been standing in line from 5 AM and it was already 9 AM, he was still waiting for the sale of chicken to begin. Another person strongly criticized the government and wondered whether nuclear energy is more important than the livelihood of the citizens. He noted that, if the authorities cared as much for the situation of the citizens as they do for uranium, the country and the citizens would not be in such a bad situation. Yet another Iranian spoke about the government-controlled price of chicken, arguing that 4,700 tomans per kilogram isn’t cheap either and that “the citizens are being made fun of” (Kalemeh, July 15).

In recent days, commentators, merchants, and politicians have discussed the reasons behind the increase in the price of chicken, saying that, by and large, it is the consequence of insufficient control by the government and the sharp increase in the price of chicken feed. Mohammad Yousefi, the head of Iran’s Union of Poultry Farmers, said that the increase in the price of chicken stems from the ongoing increase in the price of soybean meal, which is used as feed for chickens (Mehr, July 16).

This week Majles member Nader Ghazipour accused a businessman in charge of importing livestock feed of responsibility for the price increases. He noted that the increase in the price of chicken has nothing to do with the economic sanctions imposed on Iran, and that it is rather the result of a monopoly exercised by one businessman who deliberately delays the import of chicken feed into the country to drive up prices. He called on the authorities to take action against this individual, whom he referred to as “Iran’s meat sultan”, and prevent businessmen who seek to turn a profit from doing as they please. Ghazipour demanded that the Ministry of Agriculture take responsibility for the import of chicken feed and distribute it freely to chicken farmers (Fararu, July 15). In response to the remarks made by the Majles member, the Tabnak website called on politicians to stop concerning themselves with “exposing” corrupt businessmen and holding pointless parliament meetings, and start taking real measures to curb the increase in prices (Tabnak, July 16). This week the president of Tehran’s Azad University proclaimed Tuesday, July 17, as a “chicken-free day”. He called on Iranians to refrain from buying chicken on that day in protest of the increasing prices, saying that it would be a show of support for the government and the citizens and a demonstration of opposition to profiteers who are trying to earn excessive profits (ISNA, July 16).

Esma’il Ahmadi-Moghaddam, the chief of Iran’s internal security forces, criticized Iran Broadcasting this week for continuing to broadcast movies on national television where Iranians can be seen eating chicken. Speaking at a conference of internal security forces chiefs, Ahmadi-Moghaddam said that these movies encourage the poor to take up arms against the rich. He noted that such movies are the shop window of society, and airing them may encourage people who see the social gaps they portray to take a knife and stab the rich. He said that Iran Broadcasting should avoid showing what is beyond the reach of many Iranian citizens (Asr-e Iran, July 14).

Religion students not spared by inflation crisis

The impact of the ongoing price increases has not spared the religion students in Iran. Last weekend the Mashregh website published an article dealing with the growing distress of the religious seminary students in the city of Qom in the face of the worsening economic conditions and the wave of price increases in the past several months. The economic distress is particularly evident among those religion students who do not work and dedicate most of their time to religious studies.

Those religion students who work during their studies are able to afford a lifestyle similar to that of average Iranian citizens. They may purchase an apartment after several years and manage to earn an income that is sufficient to cover their basic needs, even if they do have to give up some of their future plans. On the other hand, religion students who spend most of their time studying at the religious seminaries are experiencing economic distress that is becoming more and more severe. They receive a monthly allowance in the sum of 25 – 30 thousand tomans (about 13 – 16 dollars), have no other income or apartment of their own, and are forced to rent an apartment like many other young Iranians. These religion students, some of whom have one or two children, are severely affected by the inflation, particularly due to the increasing rent prices in the city of Qom. Some apartment owners, who face economic difficulties of their own, have recently decided to raise the rent, making it more than many youngsters can afford. Many of them are forced to sell the gold jewelry given to their wives on their wedding day, or seek loans from banks without necessarily having a way of repaying them. These students have trouble purchasing even basic food supplies. Some of them, who used to consume no more than 2 – 3 kg of meat per year, have been forced to give up eating meat completely, which also negatively affects their wives and children. In light of the escalating economic distress, religion students are forced to find part-time jobs to survive. Some religion students who have a car have become taxi drivers in their spare time, and some of them do so without the knowledge of their families.

The Mashregh website noted that signs of the growing economic distress experienced by the religion students can be witnessed in statements made by some top clerics, who criticized the price increases and expressed their concern over the worsening economic situation. These statements reflect the opinions of only part of the clerics, since others prefer voicing their opinions in private, away from the public. The price increases have become the main topic of everyday conversation for religion students, who bring up the issue whenever they meet. The religion students are concerned both with the impact of the price increases on all Iranians and the growing public frustration, as well as with the impact the price increases have on their own lives. It is not clear, Mashregh said, how the religion students can succeed in their studies given the severe economic difficulties that they are facing. While many of them lead simple lifestyles and have already become used to handling the difficulties, there is only so much they can do to cope with the ongoing distress, and their families can only go on for so much longer in these conditions (Mashregh, July 12). The city of Qom is currently home to some 50 thousand religion students.

In addition to the growing distress that they are facing, the clerics and religion students are more than ever encountering the same kind of economic difficulties experienced by ordinary Iranians. Hawzah News, a news agency affiliated with the religious establishment in the city of Qom, interviewed a number of clerics and religion students in the religious seminaries of Qom about the numerous complaints they hear from citizens as a result of the worsening economic situation and the price increases.

Hojjat-ol-Eslam Qassem Hassanzadeh, a cleric who has been living in the city of Qom for more than 20 years, said that many Iranians bring their complaints and criticisms to the clerics, particularly the prayer leaders in mosques, in light of the escalation in the unemployment and inflation crisis. He noted that, in a reality where products become more expensive by the day, one of the most important missions facing the clerics is to forward the people’s complaints to government officials and politicians, and ask them to find a solution to the inflation problem as soon as possible.

Seyyed Ahmad Hosseini, a fifth-year religion student, said that the complaints voiced by Iranians about the price increases in recent days have significantly increased compared to the past. He said that, in recent weeks, the prices of some products and foods have increased by a sharp 40 to 60 percent, and that many families are having difficulties purchasing even the most basic food supplies with the cash benefits they receive from the government. Sa’id Rahmani, an eight-year religion student, also spoke about the worsening economic situation, and said that only few families are not concerned about the increasing unemployment among the educated young people or the wave of price increases (www.hawzanews.com, June 30).

At the same time, the Union of Religious Book Publishers released an announcement this week saying that the increase in the price of paper severely limits their ability to publish new books on religion and copies of the Quran. In their announcement, the publishers said that the price of paper has increased by nearly 40 percent in recent months, which threatens to put publishers of religious books out of business. They called on the authorities to extend assistance to the book publishers, saying that such assistance would be especially welcome now that the month of Ramadan is just around the corner, which offers an opportunity to publish particularly large numbers of religious books (Mehr, July 13).

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Dr. Hassan Rouhani

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